Tom Moeller

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The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services eased to $89.19 billion during February from $89.23 billion in January, revised from $89.69 billion. A deficit of $88.6 billion had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Exports increased 1.8% (19.9% y/y) after falling 1.7% in January. Imports rose 1.3% (23.1% y/y) after increasing 1.1% in January.

The trade deficit in goods eased to $106.35 billion in February after expanding to a record $107.36 billion in January. It compared to a $106.59 billion deficit in the advance report issued last week. Exports of goods rose 1.7% (21.3% y/y). Nonauto consumer goods exports increased 6.7% (34.4% y/y) in February. Exports of foods, feeds & beverages increased 4.6% (6.9% y/y). Industrial supplies & materials exports improved 3.0% (31.2% y/y). Working lower, auto exports weakened 2.4% (+2.6% y/y) and capital goods exports fell 1.5% (+16.8% y/y).

Imports of goods increased 0.6% in February (21.4% y/y). Industrial supplies & materials imports increased 5.5% (40.3% y/y) as oil prices increased. Capital goods imports improved 1.4% (16.5% y/y). Nonauto consumer goods imports gained 0.7% (20.2% y/y). To the downside, auto imports declined 9.9% (+4.0% y/y) as foods, feeds & beverage imports weakened 3.0% (+26.1% y/y).

Petroleum imports rose 18.6% (75.6% y/y) in February. The rise occurred as the price of crude oil increased to an average $76.37 per barrel from $69.22. Nonpetroleum imports slipped 0.8% (+17.9% y/y).

The real (adjusted for price changes) trade deficit in goods narrowed to $116.28 billion from a record $117.89 billion (chained 2012 dollars) in January. Real exports of goods fell 0.8% (+5.8% y/y) while real imports of goods declined 1.0% (+10.0% y/y).

The surplus of trade in services declined to $18.3 billion in February. The surplus remained down from a high of $26.7 billion in January 2018. The value of services exports rose 2.0% (16.2% y/y) as travel exports increased 17.8% (90.3% y/y). Service imports rose 5.0% (32.3% y/y) in February including an 8.2% rise (170.0% y/y) in travel imports.

The trade deficit with China deepened to a seasonally adjusted record $41.2 billion in February. Exports rose 1.6% (23.1% y/y) while imports rose 17.6% (13.7% y/y). The trade deficit with Japan lessened to $5.1 billion as exports increased 14.1% (28.1% y/y) and imports fell 8.6% (+21.8% y/y). The goods trade deficit with the European Union eased to $17.0 billion. Exports rose 4.4% (28.1% y/y) and imports rose 0.1% (7.6% y/y).

The international trade data, including relevant data on oil prices, can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. Detailed figures on international trade are available in the **USINT** database. The expectations figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in **AS1REPNA**.

**Variation in the Inflation Experiences of Households** from Fed Governor Lael Brainard can be found [here](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/brainard20220405a.htm).

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- Consumer goods exports firm.
- Capital goods imports fall.
- Petroleum imports soar as prices climb.

U.S. Trade Deficit Narrows Marginally in February

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**Retail gasoline prices** declined to $4.17 per gallon in the week ended April 4 (+46.0% y/y) from $4.23 per gallon in the week prior. Prices reached a record $4.32 per gallon in the second week of March. Haver Analytics adjusts the gasoline price series for normal seasonal variation. The seasonally adjusted price fell to $4.21 per gallon from $4.24 in the prior week.

The price of **West Texas Intermediate crude oil** fell to $103.83 per barrel (+71.2% y/y) in the week ended April 1 after increasing to $113.33 in the week prior. Yesterday, the price eased to $103.28 per barrel. The average price of **Brent crude oil** fell to $$111.26 per barrel last week (+74.7% y/y) after rising to $123.60 in the prior week. The price was $108.15 per barrel yesterday.

The price of **natural gas** strengthened to $5.41/mmbtu (113.0% y/y) in the week of April 1 after rising to $5.15 in the previous week. It was the highest price since early-February. Prices remain below the high of $5.78/mmbtu in the third week of February 2022. Yesterday, the price rose to $5.72/mmbtu.

In the four weeks ended March 25, **gasoline demand** rose a greatly reduced 1.0% y/y, down from 15.2% y/y late in December. Growth in demand for **all petroleum products** fell to 8.1% y/y, the weakest growth in four years. Growth in **crude oil input to refineries** rose a lessened 14.0% y/y. **Gasoline inventories** rose 3.6% y/y but **crude oil inventories** declined 14.2% y/y.

The **supply of gasoline** inventories in the week ended March 25 rose slightly to 27.3 days. The supply of crude oil eased to 26.1 days and remained down from 41.8 days early in March of last year.

These data are reported by the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy. The price data can be found in Haver's **WEEKLY** and **DAILY** databases. Greater detail on prices, as well as the demand, production and inventory data are in **USENERGY.**

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- Gasoline prices retrace March gains.
- Crude oil prices fall moderately.
- Natural gas prices continue to strengthen.

U.S. Gasoline & Crude Oil Prices Weaken

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Manufacturers' new orders fell 0.5% (+12.6% y/y) during February following a 1.5% January gain, revised from 1.4%. A 0.6% decline had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Transportation equipment orders declined 5.3% (+8.7% y/y), weighed down by a 30.4% fall in orders for nondefense aircraft & parts. Orders excluding transportation increased 0.4% (13.4% y/y) after improving 1.2% in January.

Durable goods orders fell 2.1% (10.3% y/y) following a 1.5% gain. The decline compared to a 2.2% fall issued in the advance report. Machinery orders declined 2.9% (+12.3% y/y) and reversed January's 3.0% increase. Orders for computers and electronic equipment fell 1.1% (+4.3% y/y) after rising 0.4% in January while primary metals orders weakened 0.9% (+19.7% y/y) after a 0.3% slip. Electrical equipment orders rose 0.6% (7.8% y/y) after a 0.3% dip.

New orders for nondurable goods, which equal shipments, rose 1.2% (15.1% y/y) in February, following a 1.5% January rise. Shipments from refineries rose 4.6% (47.3% y/y) with higher prices. Apparel shipments gained 0.8% (3.8% y/y) following a 1.2% decline. Basic chemical shipments eased 0.4% (+10.3% y/y) and reversed January's increase.

Total shipments rose 0.6% (13.7% y/y) in February after a 1.4% rise. Shipments excluding transportation rose 0.8% (14.4% y/y) after improving 1.5%. Transportation equipment eased 0.5% (+9.8% y/y) after rising 0.5%. Machinery shipments fell 1.7% (14.9% y/y) after a 3.0% gain. Shipments of computers & electronic products rose 1.2% (6.0% y/y) after sharp increases in the prior two months.

Unfilled orders increased 0.4% (8.4% y/y) in February after a 0.9% rise in January. Excluding transportation, unfilled orders edged 0.1% higher (13.4% y/y) following a 0.5% rise in January. Transportation backlogs increased 0.6% (6.0% y/y) after surging 1.1%. Primary metals backlogs increased 0.4% (15.8% y/y) after a 1.1% rise and unfilled orders of machinery rose 0.3% (16.3% y/y) following a 0.8% rise.

Inventories of manufactured goods rose 0.6% in February (9.7% y/y) after rising 0.8% in January. Transportation equipment inventories edged 0.1% higher (5.5% y/y) while excluding transportation inventories gained 0.8% (10.8% y/y) after a 1.0% rise in January.

The factory sector data are available in Haver's **USECON** database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Fall in manufactured goods orders is first since April 2021.
- Shipments continue year long gain.
- Unfilled orders and inventories rise further.

U.S. Factory Orders Decline as Shipments and Inventories Rise in February

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The Autodata Corporation reported that light vehicle sales during March fell 5.4% (-24.7% y/y) to 13.40 million units (SAAR) after weakening 6.8% in February. Sales were 27.6% below the April 2021 peak of 18.50 million units.

Auto sales declined 8.4% (-31.1% y/y) last month to 2.73 million units. Purchases of domestically-made autos weakened 3.5% in March (-27.5% y/y) to 1.92 million units. Sales of imported autos weakened 18.2% (-38.6% y/y) to 0.81 million units.

Sales of light trucks weakened 4.6% (-22.8% y/y) in March to 10.67 million units. Purchases of domestically-produced light truck declined 1.7% last month (-21.7% y/y) to 8.46 million units. Sales of imported light trucks fell 14.0% last month (-27.1% y/y) to 2.21 million units.

Trucks' share of the light vehicle market slipped to 79.6% and remained below an 80.4% share in October of last year.

Imports' total share of the U.S. vehicle market fell in March to 22.5% and reversed gains in the prior two months. Imports' share of the passenger car market fell to 29.7% last month. Imports' share of the light truck market fell to 20.7%.

U.S. vehicle sales figures can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. Additional detail by manufacturer is in the **INDUSTRY** database.

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- Both auto & light truck sales tumble for second straight month.
- Sales have been under pressure as parts shortages limit dealer inventory.
- Imports' share reverses most of three-month increase.

U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Fall Sharply in March

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Nonfarm payroll employment increased 431,00 (4.6% y/y) during March following a 750,000 February increase, revised from 678,000. A 490,000 March gain had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The 504,000 January increase was revised from 481,000.

Average hourly earnings rose an expected 0.4% last month (5.6% y/y) after increasing 0.1% in February, revised from no change.

The unemployment rate fell to 3.6% in March from 3.8% in February. A 3.7% rate had been expected. Employment in the household survey increased 736,000 last month following a 548,000 February rise. The labor force rose by 418,000 workers after increasing 304,000 in February. The overall unemployment rate, including those who were marginally attached or working part-time for economic reasons, fell to 6.9% after rising to 7.2% in February.

Last month's gain in **payroll** employment was led by the private service sector where jobs increased 366,000 (5.6% y/y) following a 637,000 February gain, revised from 549,000. Leisure & hospitality sector jobs rose 112,000 (16.1% y/y), the weakest since a decline in December 2020. Employment in the professional & business sector improved a steady 102,000 (5.6% y/y) as temporary help increased 4,900 (10.8% y/y). Trade, transportation & utilities employment rose 54,000 (4.3% y/y) as retail trade employment growth slowed sharply to 49,000 (3.9% y/y). Education & health services employment growth halved to 53,000 (2.6% y/y). The number of financial sector workers also weakened to 16,000 (2.0% y/y) and information services jobs also improved 16,000 (5.8% y/y) after a modest February decline. Government sector payrolls rose a lessened 5,000 (1.3% y/y) in March but state government jobs fell 14,000 (0.4% y/y).

Factory sector employment rose a steady 38,000 last month (3.3% y/y) but construction sector payroll growth eased to 19,000 (3.2% y/y).

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The 0.4% rise in average hourly earnings was paced by a 1.2% increase (11.8% y/y) in leisure & hospitality earnings while financial sector pay rose 0.8% (3.6% y/y).

The length of the private sector average workweek dipped last month to 34.6 hours and reversed the February increase. Manufacturing sector hours held steady at 40.7 but the financial sector workweek eased to 37.6 hours from 37.7 hours in February. Hours-worked in the professional & business service sector fell to 36.7 hours from 36.8. The education & health services workweek held at 33.5 hours, its highest level since March 2021. The leisure & hospitality workweek rose to a lengthened 26.0 hours.

From the **household** employment survey, the lower 3.6% unemployment rate in March reflected a rise in the labor force participation rate to 62.4%, its highest level in two years.

The employment/population ratio for all workers rose to 60.1% in March from 59.7, well above its 51.3% low in April 2020. It remained below the February 2020 high of 61.2%.

The average duration of unemployment declined to 24.2 weeks in March, down from the high of 31.6 weeks in June of last year. The median unemployment duration fell sharply to 7.5 weeks and remained below a recent high of 19.6 weeks in June of last year.

The employment & earnings data are collected from surveys taken each month during the week containing the 12th of the month. The labor market data are contained in Haver's **USECON** database. Detailed figures are in the **EMPL** and **LABOR** databases. The expectations figures are in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Service sector job growth slows.
- Hourly earnings gain accelerates.
- Jobless rate falls to lowest level in over two years.

U.S. Payroll & Earnings Growth Remains Firm as Unemployment Rate Declines in March

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The ISM-Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer increased to 62.9 during March after falling to 56.3 in February. It, nevertheless, remained below the May 2021 peak of 73.3. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 57.0. An index above 50 suggests expanding business activity in the Chicago area. Haver Analytics constructs an ISM-Adjusted Chicago Business Barometer with methodology similar to the ISM Composite Index. This measure rose to 63.4.

The production measure rose to 60.0 and recovered its February decline. The new orders reading also rose sharply to 61.9 as a steady 36% of respondents (NSA) reported higher orders but a greatly lessened 11% reported a decline. The employment index rose to 48.1 in March but remained below the recent high of 56.4 in October. An increased 15% (NSA) of respondents reported higher employment while a greatly lessened 15% reported less hiring. The supplier deliveries series rose to 78.3 from 75.3. Sixty-three percent of respondents reported slower product delivery speeds while none reported quicker speeds. The orders backlog index rose to 64.3, its highest level since October.

The prices paid index dipped to 85.7 March, down from an October high of 94.1. It was the lowest level in twelve months.

The MNI Chicago Report is produced by MNI in partnership with ISM-Chicago. The survey is collected online each month from manufacturing and nonmanufacturing firms in the Chicago area. Summary data are contained in Haver's **USECON** database with detail including the ISM-style index in the **SURVEYS** database.

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- Component improvement is widespread.
- Employment increases.
- Pricing power eases.

U.S. Chicago Business Barometer Rebounds in March

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Personal consumption expenditures rose 0.2% (13.7% y/y) during February after strengthening 2.7% in January, revised from 2.1%. A 0.6% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Adjusted for price inflation, spending declined 0.4% last month (+6.9% y/y) after increasing 2.1% in January.

Real spending on durable goods declined 2.5% in February (+5.2% y/y) after January's 10.1% surge. The decline reflected a 4.0% drop (-2.8% y/y) in real outlays on motor vehicles & parts after surging 11.8% in January. Real furniture & appliance outlays weakened 2.8% (+0.8% y/y) after an 8.4% January rise. Real outlays on recreational goods & vehicles declined 2.3% (+14.7% y/y) following an 11.6% surge. Real nondurable goods buying fell 1.9% in February (+6.4% y/y) after a 3.1% gain. Adjusted for inflation, clothing outlays declined 2.1% (+15.6% y/y) after a 7.1% January rise. Real food & beverage expenditures fell 2.3% in February (+0.9% y/y) after a 1.9% increase, and real spending on gasoline & other energy products eased 0.1% (+11.1% y/y). Real outlays on services improved 0.6% (7.4% y/y) in February after a 0.3% increase. Housing & utilities spending fell 0.5% (+0.6% y/y) as it followed a 1.0% rise. Real outlays on recreation services offset that decline and surged 1.9% (24.4% y/y) after weakening modestly in the prior two months. Real spending at hotels & restaurants jumped 2.4% last month (24.7% y/y) after falling 1.3% in January.

Prices marched higher last month. The PCE chain price index rose 0.6% in February (6.4% y/y) following two months of 0.5% increase. The price index excluding food and energy rose 0.4%. The 5.4% y/y increase was the largest since April 1983. Durable goods prices held steady (11.4% y/y). The nondurables goods price index strengthened 1.8% (8.6% y/y) after rising 0.7% in January as gasoline & oil costs surged 6.7% (36.4% y/y) after a 0.2% dip. The services price index rose 0.3% last month (4.6% y/y) after two months of 0.4% gain.

Personal income rose an expected 0.5% (6.0% y/y) during February following a 0.1% rise, revised from no change. Wages & salaries increased 0.8% last month (11.5% y/y) after rising 0.4% in January. Proprietors income rose 0.8% (10.0% y/y) after improving 0.2%. Rental income rose 0.7% (5.6% y/y) for the second straight month. Transfer receipts declined 0.3% (-5.4% y/y) after falling 1.0% in January. Disposable income increased 0.4% (4.6% y/y) in February, after rising 0.1% in January. Adjusted for price inflation, disposable income declined 0.2% (-1.6% y/y), off for the seventh straight month.

The personal savings rate rose to 6.3% in February from 6.1% in January. It remained down from a high of 33.8% in April of 2020. The level of personal savings rose 3.5% last month but has fallen by roughly one-half during the last twelve months.

The personal income and consumption figures are available in Haver's **USECON** database with detail in the **USNA** database. The Action Economics figures are in the **AS1REPNA** database.

**Why Is U.S. Inflation Higher than in Other Countries?** from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco is available [here](https://www.frbsf.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/el2022-07.pdf).

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- Goods spending declines but services improves.
- Core price inflation eases m/m.
- Wage & salary growth strengthens.

U.S. Personal Spending Slows as Income Picks Up in February

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The job market remained firm this month. The ADP National Employment Report indicated that nonfarm private sector payrolls increased 455,000 during March (5.3% y/y) after rising 486,000 in February, revised from 475,000 reported initially. A 420,000 March rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.

Medium-sized payrolls led this month's gain with a 188,000 increase (6.3% y/y) after rising 23,000 in February, revised from 18,000. Large-sized payrolls strengthened 177,000 in March (5.5% y/y) after a 559,000 February surge, revised from 552,000. Small-sized payrolls rebounded 90,000 (3.8% y/y) after falling an unrevised 96,000 in February.

Within industry sectors, private services employment led this month's growth with a 377,000 increase (5.4% y/y) after increasing 426,000 in February, revised from 417,000. Leisure & hospitality jobs increased 161,000 (17.2% y/y) after gaining 177,000 in February. The number of education & health services jobs rose 72,000 (3.4% y/y) after a 44,000 February increase. This month's gain was the largest in three months. Professional & business services jobs increased 61,000 (4.3% y/y) following a 70,000 February rise. The number of trade, transportation & utilities jobs grew 49,000 in March (3.5% y/y) after rising 96,000 last month. Employment in financial services rose 12,000 in March (1.9% y/y), about as it did in each of the prior two months. The number of information sector jobs held steady in March (3.2% y/y) after a 7,000 gain.

Employment in the goods-producing sector firmed in March, increasing 79,000 after a 60,000 gain in February, revised from 57,000. The number of factory sector jobs rose 54,000 (3.7% y/y) following a 29,000 February gain, revised from 30,000 (3.9% y/y). Construction sector payrolls rose 15,000 (5.0% y/y) after increasing 29,000 in February, revised from 26,000. Employment in the natural resource & mining sector improved 9,000 (10.3% y/y) after three straight months of roughly 2,000 gain.

The Automatic Data Processing Research Institute survey covers 411,000 companies and includes about one-fifth of U.S. private payroll employment. The data are processed by Moody's Analytics Inc., then calibrated and aligned with the BLS establishment survey data. The ADP data cover private sector employment only.

The ADP National Employment Report data can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. Historical figures date back to 2001 for private employment and the industry breakdown, and 2005 for the business size breakout. The expectation figure is available in Haver's **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Gain is larger than expected.
- Leisure & hospitality continues to lead growth.
- Factory & construction sectors also improve.

U.S. ADP Nonfarm Private Payrolls Improve in March

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The Mortgage Bankers Association's Loan Applications Index fell 6.8% (-41.8% y/y) in the week ending March 25 after the previous week's 8.1% drop. Applications to refinance an existing loan fell 14.9% (-60.1% y/y) after a 14.4% decline in the previous week. Applications to purchase a home increased 0.6% (-10.2% y/y) following a 1.5% decline.

The share of applications for refinancing declined to 40.6% last week from 44.8% the previous week. The share was 62.2% during all of last March. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity in the latest week rose to 6.6% from 6.4% the week before.

Mortgage interest rates in the week of March 25 jumped to 4.96% for 30-year fixed-rate loans from 4.68% in the previous week. It was the highest rate since December 2018, up from a 2.95% low in December 2020. The effective rate on a 15-year mortgage rose to 4.15% last week from 3.89% in the week prior. The rate on a Jumbo 30-year mortgage rose to 4.53% from 4.26%. The rate on a 5-year adjustable-rate mortgage increased to 3.90% from 3.59%.

Applications for fixed-rate loans declined 7.0% (-43.8% y/y) in the week ended March 25 following a 9.0% fall in the prior week. Applications for adjustable-rate mortgages fell 3.7% (+12.9% y/y) after rising 5.9% in the previous week.

The average size of a mortgage loan edged 0.1% higher (19.4% y/y) last week to $387,900. The average size of a loan for purchase fell 1.6% (+12.8% y/y) to $452,900. The average size of a refinanced loan declined 1.8% (+6.5% y/y) to $292,900.

This survey covers over 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks, and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver's **SURVEYW** database.

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- Refinancings stand at lowest level since 2019.
- Applications for purchase rise slightly.
- Mortgage interest rates move steadily higher.

U.S. Mortgage Applications Decline as Refinancings Plunge

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The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index increased 1.6% (18.2% y/y) during January following a 1.3% December rise, revised from 1.2%. It was the largest monthly increase since last June. The home price series dates back to January 1991.

Twelve-month price gains were led by the Mountain (23.1% y/y), South Atlantic (21.9% y/y), East South Central (20.6% y/y) and Pacific Regions (20.1% y/y).

Not far behind was the West South Central (18.4% y/y) region.

Strength also was exhibited in New England (15.9% y/y), the East North Central (14.7% y/y), West North Central (14.0% y/y) and Middle Atlantic (13.3% y/y) regions of the country.

The FHFA house price index is a weighted purchase-only index that measures average price changes in repeat sales of the same property. An associated quarterly index includes refinancings on the same kinds of properties. The indexes are based on transactions involving conforming conventional mortgages purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Only mortgage transactions on single-family properties are included.

The FHFA data are available in Haver's **USECON** database.

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- Monthly increases are mixed regionally.
- Mountain states lead price gains y/y.

U.S. FHFA House Price Index Strengthens in January

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The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index during March increased 1.4% (-6.7% y/y) to 107.2 following a 4.9% February decline to 105.7, revised from 110.5. A reading of 107.5 had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.

The Present Situation Index improved 7.0% this month (28.1% y/y) to 153.0 after falling 1.0% in February to 143.0, revised from 145.1. The Consumer Expectations index declined 5.2% in March (-31.5% y/y) to 76.6, following a 9.0% February decline to 80.8, revised from 87.5. It was the third straight month of sharp decline.

The jobs gap, representing the difference between respondents indicating that jobs are plentiful and those saying jobs are hard to get, rose sharply to a record 47.4% and more than reversed the February decline to 41.5%. Calculated by Haver Analytics, this series has had a 69% correlation with the unemployment rate over the last ten years. The jobs plentiful measure rose this month to a record 57.2% of respondents from 53.5% in February. The jobs hard-to-get measure fell to 9.8% of respondents, the lowest level since July 2000.

Current business conditions were perceived as good by an increased 19.6% of respondents in March. Expectations that business conditions would improve in six months fell sharply to 18.7% of respondents, down from 42.5% in April 2020. More jobs were expected in six months by a lessened 17.4% of respondents, half the percentage twelve months ago. The percentage expecting rising income was little changed at 14.9% of respondents.

The expected inflation rate in twelve months surged to 7.9% in March. It remained up from a 4.4% low in January of 2020. Roughly two-thirds of respondents expected that interest rates would rise over the next twelve months, the most in three years. The share of respondents planning to buy a new home within six months held steady m/m at 0.6% and remained below a June 2020 high of 2.0%. Those planning to buy a major appliance rose to 47.4% of respondents, down from 53.9% in July 2021.

The Consumer Confidence data are available in Haver's **CBDB** database. The total indexes, which are indexed to 1985=100, appear in **USECON**, and market expectations are in **AS1REPNA**.

**The President's Fiscal Year 2023 Budget** is available [here](https://www.state.gov/on-the-presidents-fiscal-year-2023-budget/).

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- Present situation index strengthens; expectations falter.
- Jobs are easier to find.
- Expectations for inflation surge.

U.S. Consumer Confidence Improves in March

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**Retail gasoline prices** slipped to $4.23 per gallon last week (+48.4% y/y) from $4.24 per gallon in the week prior. Prices reached a record $4.32 per gallon one week earlier. Haver Analytics adjusts the gasoline price series for normal seasonal variation. The seasonally adjusted price rose to $4.24 per gallon from $4.21 in the prior week.

The price of **West Texas Intermediate crude oil** rose to $112.87 per barrel (88.2% y/y) in the week ended March 25 after falling to $100.47 in the week prior. Yesterday, the price fell to $105.96 per barrel. The average price of **Brent crude oil** rebounded to $123.60 per barrel last week (97.7% y/y) after easing to $109.59 in the prior week. It was the highest price since April 2012. The price was $114.50 per barrel yesterday.

The price of **natural gas** strengthened to $5.18/mmbtu (103.9% y/y) in the week of March 25 after easing to $4.68 in the previous week. It was the highest price since early-February. Prices remain below the high of $5.78/mmbtu in the third week of February 2022. Yesterday, the price rose to $5.52/mmbtu.

In the four weeks ended March 18, **gasoline demand** rose 4.0% y/y, down from 15.2% y/y late in December. Growth in demand for **all petroleum products** increased a steady 11.7% y/y. Growth in **crude oil input to refineries** rose 24.4% y/y, after 13.1% y/y growth early in November. **Gasoline inventories** rose 2.5% y/y but **crude oil inventories** declined 13.7% y/y.

The **supply of gasoline** inventories in the week ending March 18 fell to 27.0 days. The supply of crude oil slipped to 26.6 days and remained down from 41.8 days early in March of last year.

These data are reported by the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy. The price data can be found in Haver's **WEEKLY** and **DAILY** databases. Greater detail on prices, as well as the demand, production and inventory data are in **USENERGY.**

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- Gasoline prices edge downward.
- Crude oil prices move higher.
- Natural gas prices exhibit renewed strength.

U.S. Energy Prices Remain Strong

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