Tom Moeller

large_94c72559-d5a4-48cc-944a-0e5106ec4c81_1220401j.jpg

medium_94c72559-d5a4-48cc-944a-0e5106ec4c81_1220401j.jpg

small_94c72559-d5a4-48cc-944a-0e5106ec4c81_1220401j.jpg

thumbnail_94c72559-d5a4-48cc-944a-0e5106ec4c81_1220401j.jpg

94c72559-d5a4-48cc-944a-0e5106ec4c81_1220401j.jpg

large_f924734d-fb7b-401e-9baa-9d2a133ae58a_1220401k.jpg

medium_f924734d-fb7b-401e-9baa-9d2a133ae58a_1220401k.jpg

small_f924734d-fb7b-401e-9baa-9d2a133ae58a_1220401k.jpg

thumbnail_f924734d-fb7b-401e-9baa-9d2a133ae58a_1220401k.jpg

f924734d-fb7b-401e-9baa-9d2a133ae58a_1220401k.jpg

The Autodata Corporation reported that light vehicle sales during March fell 5.4% (-24.7% y/y) to 13.40 million units (SAAR) after weakening 6.8% in February. Sales were 27.6% below the April 2021 peak of 18.50 million units.

Auto sales declined 8.4% (-31.1% y/y) last month to 2.73 million units. Purchases of domestically-made autos weakened 3.5% in March (-27.5% y/y) to 1.92 million units. Sales of imported autos weakened 18.2% (-38.6% y/y) to 0.81 million units.

Sales of light trucks weakened 4.6% (-22.8% y/y) in March to 10.67 million units. Purchases of domestically-produced light truck declined 1.7% last month (-21.7% y/y) to 8.46 million units. Sales of imported light trucks fell 14.0% last month (-27.1% y/y) to 2.21 million units.

Trucks' share of the light vehicle market slipped to 79.6% and remained below an 80.4% share in October of last year.

Imports' total share of the U.S. vehicle market fell in March to 22.5% and reversed gains in the prior two months. Imports' share of the passenger car market fell to 29.7% last month. Imports' share of the light truck market fell to 20.7%.

U.S. vehicle sales figures can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. Additional detail by manufacturer is in the **INDUSTRY** database.

large_fa6b3237-2702-45a7-ae5c-d3c976a374a1_1220401l.jpg

medium_fa6b3237-2702-45a7-ae5c-d3c976a374a1_1220401l.jpg

small_fa6b3237-2702-45a7-ae5c-d3c976a374a1_1220401l.jpg

thumbnail_fa6b3237-2702-45a7-ae5c-d3c976a374a1_1220401l.jpg

fa6b3237-2702-45a7-ae5c-d3c976a374a1_1220401l.jpg

large_2ff52b4d-3fd2-4c13-8271-1252d9b79ae3_1220401m.jpg

medium_2ff52b4d-3fd2-4c13-8271-1252d9b79ae3_1220401m.jpg

small_2ff52b4d-3fd2-4c13-8271-1252d9b79ae3_1220401m.jpg

thumbnail_2ff52b4d-3fd2-4c13-8271-1252d9b79ae3_1220401m.jpg

2ff52b4d-3fd2-4c13-8271-1252d9b79ae3_1220401m.jpg

- Both auto & light truck sales tumble for second straight month.
- Sales have been under pressure as parts shortages limit dealer inventory.
- Imports' share reverses most of three-month increase.

U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Fall Sharply in March

Our global data offering is unparalleled in terms of coverage, quality, and organization. We offer 290+ databases from 2500 government and private sources, a wealth of key survey and forecast data covering the world’s economies, and a robust offering of archive databases that drive machine learning for big data applications.

Optimized for precision analytics, our data is seamlessly integrated with Microsoft Office and all leading statistical packages through our DLX® software and platform independent HaverView™ website. We further offer direct database feeds, client server or cloud-based delivery, and RESTful API.


Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Contact us

A premier time series data platform for the global strategy, research, and quant communities. 

New York

London

Singapore

Tokyo

Economy in Brief

Viewpoints

Contact Us

Our Data

Our Products

What We Do

Our Authors

About Us

Data News

Resources

Release Calendars

Training Center

Webinars

Newsletters

Download Software

For Clients

Live Updates

250709L12.jpg

250709M12.jpg

Wholesale inventories fell 0.3% (+1.4% y/y) during May after edging 0.1% higher in April. The decline was revised from a 0.2% fall in the advance release issued last week. A 0.3% decline had been expected in the Informa Global Markets survey. Durable goods inventories fell 0.8% during May (-0.0% y/y) after increasing 0.1% in April. Furniture & home furnishings inventories were off 2.2% (+4.5% y/y) after weakening 0.8% in April. Professional & business equipment inventories declined 1.7% (+5.1% y/y) and reversed April’s 1.6% increase. Motor vehicle & parts inventories were off 1.5% (-2.6% y/y) following a 0.6% rise. Machinery inventories fell 0.8% (-2.0% y/y), about as they did in April. Electrical equipment inventories eased 0.1% (-3.2% y/y) after falling 0.5% in April. To the upside, hardware & plumbing equipment inventories rose 1.3% (8.1% y/y) following two straight 1.8% increases. Lumber inventories rose 1.0% (3.4% y/y) after falling sharply in both of the prior two months. Inventories of nondurable goods rose 0.5% during May (3.9% y/y) after rising 0.2% in April. Drug inventories surged 1.8% (5.1% y/y) after a 2.0% gain while apparel inventories gained 0.5% (-0.7% y/y) following a 0.9% rise. Grocery inventories rose 0.3% (11.0% y/y) after a 1.2% rise. Paper inventories rose 0.3% (6.9% y/y), reversing the 0.7% April decline, while chemical inventories dropped 1.9% (-1.8% y/y) after declining 1.2% in April. Petroleum & petroleum product inventories rose 2.5% (-8.1% y/y) following a 7.5% drop. Farm product inventories declined 3.8% (4.9% y/y) after two straight months of 2.6% decline.

Wholesale sales declined 0.3% (+4.8% y/y) in May after holding steady in April. A 0.2% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Sales of nondurable goods declined 0.8% (+2.3% y/y) after easing 0.1% in April. Paper sales slipped 0.8% (0.7% y/y) after rising 0.9% in April. Drug sales eased 0.3% (+12.0% y/y) after rising 0.2% in April. Petroleum sales weakened 2.8% (-13.3% y/y) after declining 3.3% in April. In contrast, sales of apparel strengthened 1.9% (8.1% y/y), the same as in April. Grocery store sales increased 1.0% (6.7% y/y) after a 1.4% gain. Sales of durable goods rose 0.2% (7.6% y/y) following a 0.1% uptick in April. Auto sales rose 3.6% (5.2% y/y) after easing 0.1% in April. Sales of electrical equipment strengthened 1.2% (15.7% y/y) following a 0.4% decline. Metals & minerals sales gained 0.5% (0.2% y/y) following a 1.8% decline. Working lower, furniture sales declined 1.6% (+3.6% y/y) after a 2.3% increase. Professional equipment sales eased 0.3% (+8.1% y/y) following a 1.0% increase. Machinery sales weakened 0.9% (+5.2% y/y) after increasing 0.8% in April.

The May inventory to sales ratio in the wholesale sector stood at 1.3 for the fourth straight month. The durable goods I/S ratio eased to 1.67 after two months at 1.69, down from the 1.81 high in March of last year. The ratio ranged from a 2.86 high for machinery to 0.95 for electrical equipment. The nondurable goods I/S ratio rose to 0.95 after two months at 0.93. The I/S ratio for apparel was 2.04 in May while for petroleum, it was 0.33.

The wholesale trade figures are available in Haver's **USECON** database. The expectations figure for inventories is contained in the **MMSAMER** database. Expectations for sales are from the **AS1REPNA** database.

The minutes of the latest **FOMC meeting** can be found [here](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcminutes20250618.pdf).

250709N12.jpg

250709O12.jpg

- Inventory decline reverses two months of increase.
- Sales decline is first in four months.
- I/S ratio steadies at three-year low.

U.S. Wholesale Inventories & Sales Decline in May

Winnie Tapasanun

250709A9.jpg

250709B9.jpg

Mortgage applications rose 9.4% w/w (36.6% y/y) in the week ending July 4 after a 2.7% rise in the week ending June 27, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey. The latest reading was the largest of three consecutive w/w rises and the fourth increase in five weeks, to the index level of 281.6, the highest since the April 4 week. Applications for loans to purchase a house advanced 9.4% (25.4% y/y) in the July 4 week following a 0.1% uptick in the June 27 week and two successive w/w decreases. Applications for loan refinancing rose 9.2% (55.8% y/y) in the July 4 week, up for the fourth week in five, after a 6.5% rise in the previous week.

The effective interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan declined 2bps to 6.95% in the week ending July 4 after falling to 6.97% in the week ending June 27; it was up from a low of 6.29% in the September 20 week but down from a peak of 8.12% in the week of October 20, 2023. The rate on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages fell 3bps to 6.20% in the July 4 week after declining to 6.23% in the previous week; it was up from a low of 5.60% in the September 20 week but down from a high of 7.44% in the week of October 27, 2023. The rate on 30-year jumbo loans eased to 6.88% in the July 4 week after dropping 16bps to 6.89% in the prior week; it was up from a low of 6.57% in the September 13 week but below a high of 7.99% in the week of October 27, 2023. These three rates mentioned were the lowest since their recent lows in the April 4 week. Meanwhile, the rate on a 5-year ARM rose 7bps to 6.28% in the July 4 week after decreasing 15bps to 6.21% in the previous week; it was above a low of 5.84% in the September 13 week but below a high of 7.31% in the week of October 27, 2023.

The share of applications for refinancing an existing loan fell to 40.0% of total applications in the week ending July 4 from an 11-week-high 40.1% in the week ending June 27, registering the first w/w fall since the May 23 week; those readings remained well below a peak of 55.7% in the September 20 week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity eased to 7.7% in the July 4 week, the third w/w decline in four weeks, after increasing to an eight-week-high 7.8% in the prior week; it was up from a low of 4.7% in the January 3 week but below its recent high of 9.6% in the April 11 week and a high of 10.7% in the week of October 27, 2023.

The average size of a mortgage loan, down for the third week in four, fell 1.3% w/w (+4.5% y/y) to $386,400 in the July 4 week following a 3.5% rebound to $391,500 in the June 27 week. The average size of a purchase loan, also down for the third week in four, fell 2.5% (+1.8% y/y) to $432,600 in the July 4 week, the lowest level since the January 17 week, after a 1.7% rise to $443,500 in the prior week. The average size of a loan to refinance a mortgage, up for the fourth week in five, rose 1.1% (18.8% y/y) to $317,100 in the July 4 week, the highest level since the May 2 week, on top of a 10.0% jump to $313,700 in the previous week.

The Mortgage Bankers Association Survey covers 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.

- Purchase applications +9.4% w/w; refinancing loan applications +9.2% w/w.
- Effective interest rate on 30-year fixed-rate loans falls to 6.95%, the lowest since the Apr. 4 week.
- Average loan size declines for the third time in four weeks. 

U.S. Mortgage Applications Advance 9.4% in the July 4 Week, the Third Straight W/W Rise

Andrew Cates

**Equity markets and growth surprises** 
Our first chart helps explain why global equity markets have remained buoyant in recent weeks despite some softer economic signals out of the US. The Citigroup surprise indices show that, on balance, global growth data have continued to surprise on the upside, while inflation readings have generally come in lower than expected. This combination—resilient global growth alongside moderating price pressures—has been supportive for risk assets. Investors appear to be drawing confidence from the prospect of a “soft landing” global backdrop: enough growth to support earnings but with cooling inflation that keeps central banks on track to ease policy further.

250708Z1.jpg

**Global growth** 
This next chart underscores, through the respective June readings for global composite PMIs, how global growth has arguably held up better than expected in recent weeks, helping to sustain positive risk sentiment. India continues to lead with a strikingly strong reading for June, signalling robust economic expansion, while the US also remains firmly in growth territory. Notably, the UK and Japan both posted healthier readings above 50, pointing to steady, broad-based momentum. China’s reading is also comfortably above 50, suggesting some resilience despite lingering concerns. Meanwhile, the euro area is hovering just above the neutral 50 mark, indicating modest growth, while South Africa and Brazil continue to lag behind, with Brazil slipping just below the expansion threshold.

250708Z2.jpg

**Global supply chain pressures** 
This next chart highlights one reason why global growth has so far proven more resilient than many expected: there is little sign at the global level of renewed supply chain stress despite recent shifts in US trade policy. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s global supply chain pressure Index remains broadly stable and well below the extreme levels seen during the pandemic, suggesting that supply bottlenecks are not (yet) driving significant upward pressure on global prices. This relative calm in global logistics implies that, for now, new or higher US tariffs have not materially disrupted global supply chains in the way some had feared, helping to support steady production flows and contain cost pressures—key ingredients behind the more stable global growth picture seen in recent months

250708Z3.jpg

**Asia’s trade with the US** 
All that aside, Asia’s exports to the US have already begun to weaken—despite the ongoing tariff pause—and now face broader risks as new post-pause tariff rates are announced.US President Trump’s sector-specific tariffs are weighing on exports from key trading partners, particularly in Asia. For example, auto-export-heavy economies such as Japan and South Korea have seen their rolling 12-month exports to the US stagnate this year, as Trump’s 25% auto tariffs have taken a toll. In response, some producers have been forced to cut prices to absorb part of the tariff burden, squeezing their profit margins. More broadly, China’s exports to the US have plummeted this year amid escalating trade tensions. Although both countries recently agreed to roll back many previous tariff escalations, the agreement has not fully alleviated the uncertainty surrounding the bilateral trade environment—especially given that the rollback is only temporary.

250708Z4.jpg

**China’s capital flows** 
China has also experienced a sustained trend of rising capital outflows in recent years, as illustrated in the chart below. This trend has continued into 2025, with rolling four-quarter total capital outflows exceeding half a trillion US dollars in the first quarter. The surge reflects a mix of investor motivations, including a growing desire to diversify assets abroad. A significant portion of these recent outflows has come from the acquisition of foreign portfolio investment assets, indicating an outward shift of capital into international financial markets. These outflows have contributed to downward pressure on the yuan, which has depreciated notably this year. However, the impact has been partially offset by concurrent weakness in the US dollar, amid recently subdued—yet still unresolved—US-China trade tensions. Despite ongoing currency pressures, Chinese authorities have moved to increase the foreign exchange quota for Qualified Domestic Institutional Investors (QDII), allowing greater investment in overseas securities, as depreciation pressure on the yuan has eased somewhat in recent months.

250708Z5.jpg

**Renewable energy production** 
On a more positive note, this final chart shows the remarkable growth trajectory of global renewable energy production over the past two decades, which has accelerated sharply in recent years. Total renewable generation has climbed steadily to exceed 5,000 terawatt-hours, with China emerging as the dominant driver of this expansion. Europe and North America have also contributed significantly, while the rest of the world is adding to the momentum as emerging markets ramp up investment in cleaner power sources. This sustained surge reflects rising global commitments to decarbonisation and the transition away from fossil fuels, underpinned by technological advances and policy support. However, it’s important to note that despite this impressive growth in renewable supply, real energy costs for many consumers have continued to rise over the same period—highlighting the challenges of integrating renewables at scale, upgrading grids, and balancing supply with demand during the transition.

250708Z6.jpg

_There will be no Charts of the Week publication for the next couple of weeks. The next edition will be released on Thursday, July 30th._

Recent buoyancy in global equity markets reflects a welcome mix of encouraging signals: growth is holding up better than many feared, inflation surprises have turned more benign, and most major central banks are poised to continue lowering interest rates in the period immediately ahead (charts 1, 2 and 3). There are, however, pockets of strain beneath the surface. Trade growth in Asia has slowed, most visibly in exports to the US, as tariffs and lingering tensions weigh on key sectors (chart 4). At the same time, China’s rising capital outflows point to firms and investors hedging their bets by shifting more assets abroad (chart 5). These undercurrents hint at an uneven global picture where trade frictions and capital shifts could test the durability of the recent calm. On a more positive note, the strong, steady climb in renewable energy production is a bright spot, underscoring the scale of investment pouring into the clean energy transition—even as real energy costs remain firm (chart 6). Altogether, while the broader backdrop remains supportive, new trade barriers, shifting capital flows, and the hidden costs of the green transition are watchpoints that could unsettle markets if growth momentum stalls or policy missteps occur.

Charts of the Week: Summer Resilience

250708F5.jpg

250708G5.jpg

Consumer credit outstanding increased $5.1 billion (2.0% y/y) during May after rising $16.9 billion in April, revised from $17.9 billion, and $7.9 billion in March, revised from $8.6 billion. A $12.0 billion rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. As a percentage of disposable personal income, consumer credit of 22.5% in May compared to 22.3% in April and 22.9% one year earlier. It reached a high of 26.4% during all of 2017.

Nonrevolving credit outstanding rose $8.6 billion (1.8% y/y) during May after rising $9.4 billion in April, revised from $10.2 billion, and $6.0 billion in March, revised from $6.8 billion. Nonrevolving credit held by depository institutions declined 7.3% y/y in May after falling 7.5% y/y in April. Finance company debt holdings eased 0.2% y/y after increasing 0.4% y/y in April, while credit union holdings rose 10.8% y/y in May after a 10.4% y/y April jump. Nonrevolving debt of the federal government rose 4.0% y/y following a 3.6% y/y rise in April.

In May, revolving credit outstanding, which includes credit cards, declined $3.5 billion (+2.6% y/y) after a $7.5 billion gain in April, revised from $7.6 billion following a little-revised rise of $1.9 billion in March. Revolving credit outstanding held by depository institutions fell 2.9% y/y after declining 2.0% y/y in April. Revolving credit held by finance companies fell 10.9% y/y after an 11.6% y/y drop in April, while credit held by credit unions rose a steady 3.9% y/y in May.

The consumer credit figures from the Federal Reserve Board are break-adjusted and calculated by Haver Analytics. The breaks in the series in 2005, 2010 and 2015 are the result of the incorporation of data from the Census and the Survey of Finance Companies, as well as changes in the seasonal adjustment methodology. The consumer credit data are available in Haver’s **USECON** database. The Action Economics forecast figures are contained in the **AS1REPNA** database.

250708H5.jpg

250708I5.jpg

- Consumer credit weakens more than expected.
- Nonrevolving credit usage eases as revolving credit declines.

U.S. Consumer Credit Slows in May