Inflation trends in Germany continue to move up toward or to the 2% mark. And 2% is a micro-step over the line to Germans and to the ECB. The German CPI has just got to that mark while the ex-energy CPI continues to pace at a good [...]
Introducing
Robert Brusca
in:Our Authors
Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
Publications by Robert Brusca
Global| Aug 20 2018German PPI Fails to Ring Alarm Bells
- Global| Aug 17 2018
EMU Inflation Picture Gets as Dicey as the Outlook for EMU Policy
The EMU inflation picture has begun to get dicey with headline inflation at or above 2% for two months running and the core rate (excluding food and energy) running at a pace closer to 1%. Even Alice in Wonderland did not have it so [...]
- Global| Aug 16 2018
On The Heels of a German Rebound, U.K. Retail Sales Show Life; Is This Revival or Denial?
U.K. retail sales are advancing and accelerating on the heels of a rebound in sales in Germany. It's an unlikely development as the U.K. faces all sorts of challenges including a program of rate hikes from the BOE, ongoing concerns [...]
- Global| Aug 15 2018
Germany's Retail Sales Rebound- Is It for Real?
The chart on German real retail sales tells the story of some revival in the three-month trend as the six-month and 12-month trends continue to sag at a pace less than 1% when annualized. Still, there is some near-term revival and [...]
- Global| Aug 14 2018
EMU Growth: Is it on Shakier Ground?
EMU industrial production fell 0.7% in June with the year-on-year pace at 2.3%. But in the QTD (quarter-to-date, which now refers to the full second quarter), output is falling at an annual rate of 0.6%, led by weakness in the output [...]
- Global| Aug 13 2018
Japan's Retail Sales Rebound in June; But Is That Meaningful?
Japan's retail sales have turned volatile, as the chart shows. The three-month growth rate in sales is more volatile than it has been since mid-2016. All that means is that it is harder for us to identify and pin down trend. And we [...]
- Global| Aug 09 2018
Dutch IP Falls in June
Dutch industrial production declined by 1.1% in June as utilities output fell by 2.2%, mining & quarrying activity plunged by 12%, and manufacturing edged lower by 0.1%. With the quarter’s data completed, the Dutch economy now shows [...]
- Global| Aug 08 2018
BOF Sentiment Index Has Small Setback in July
While the Bank of France saw enough in its monthly survey to announce that it was consistent with a small pick-up in GDP growth in Q3, the total industry index fell in July, dropping to 100.9 from June’s 101.4. That same survey [...]
- Global| Aug 07 2018
German IP Falls and German Exports Run Flat
Germany's industrial production has been oscillating monthly. Output has fallen month-to-month in seven of the last ten months. But IP weakness has been greatest from January to April during this period. As we try to track the impact [...]
- Global| Aug 06 2018
German Orders Drop 4% in June, the Largest Drop Since January 2017
Orders Drop in Five of Last Six Months; Is the Weakness Over Or Is It Just Beginning? Germany’s orders last dropped more than 4% in a month in January 2017. This time a 4% drop in June comes after a 2.6% gain in May. But this is no [...]
- Global| Aug 03 2018
Total PMIs Show Global Slowing
Global services data, released today, make it possible to complete the overall PMI readings for a number of countries. We have 14 reporting entities (I will double-count the largest four euro area economies by including the EU overall [...]
- Global| Aug 02 2018
EMU PPI Is Off to the Races...Chased Exclusively by Oil
On the face of it, the PPI situation in the EMU is looking rather grim. Inflation is at 3.6% year-on-year and over six month. Skipping the two highest and two lowest inflation rates in the table of 13 members, inflation ranges from a [...]
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