Introducing

Charles Steindel

Charles Steindel has been editor of Business Economics, the journal of the National Association for Business Economics, since 2016. From 2014 to 2021 he was Resident Scholar at the Anisfield School of Business, Ramapo College of New Jersey. From 2010 to 2014 he was the first Chief Economist of the New Jersey Department of the Treasury, with responsibilities for economic and revenue projections and analysis of state economic policy. He came to the Treasury after a long career at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, where he played a major role in forecasting and policy advice and rose to the rank of Senior Vice-President. He has served in leadership positions in a number of professional organizations. In 2011 he received the William F. Butler Award from the New York Association for Business Economics, is a fellow of NABE and of the Money Marketeers of New York University, and has received several awards for articles published in Business Economics. In 2017 he delivered Ramapo College's Sebastian J. Raciti Memorial Lecture. He is a member of the panel for the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Survey of Professional Forecasters and of the Committee on Research in Income and Wealth. He has published papers in a range of areas, and is the author of Economic Indicators for Professionals: Putting the Statistics into Perspective. He received his bachelor's degree from Emory University, his Ph.D. from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and is a National Association for Business Economics Certified Business EconomistTM.

Publications by Charles Steindel

• USA| Dec 29 2022

  State Coincident Indexes in November 2022

  The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s state coincident indexes in November, showed softness, but on balance no more so, and arguably less, than in October. The indexes in 14 states dropped from October (little more than half the number that had one-month declines in the initial October results), all less than .5 percent. At the three-month horizon 12 states saw their index decline from August to November, but only 4 small-population ones (Vermont, Montana, Maine, and Rhode Island) clocked drops of more than .5 percent. However, large gains were also rare over these three months; a fairly moderate number (10) had gains of more than 1 percent (this group did include New York and Florida), with Hawaii’s 2.62 percent far and away the best. Over the past 12 months, 13 states (including California, New York, and Florida) had increase of at least 5 percent, but this count is also down from the first October results. 4 states (Arizona, Montana, Mississippi, and Oklahoma) had increases under 2 percent.

  in November the independently estimated national figures of growth over the last 3 (.78 percent) and 12 (4.29 percent) months do not appear terribly out of line with the state figures.

  All states have set new peaks in this series in this expansion. Connecticut had been the last holdout, but the revised dataset shows that the Nutmeg state exceeded the old mark in July.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| Dec 23 2022

  State GDP and Personal Income

  State real GDP growth ranged from Alaska's 8.7 percent annual rate to Mississippi's -0.7 percent. States in the West grew more rapidly, while softness was more evident in the central part of the nation. In general, energy-producing states like Alaska fared best--Texas's number 2 8.2 percent growth rate was nearly half the result of increased mining output—while farm-oriented states were weaker. The Dakotas are the real exemplars of this effect: ex-mining, North Dakota's 5.2 percent growth rate would have been close to South Dakota-s -0.5 percent rate of decline. ranged widely in 2022: Q2.

  Looking at industry contributions, major sources of declines were construction, nondurable goods manufacturing, and wholesale trade (all three down in every state). A large pickup in accommodations and food services was arithmetically responsible for Hawaii being one of the few states with a real GDP increase.

  State personal income growth ran the gamut from Colorado's 14.2 percent growth rate to Indiana's 1.9 percent. Maine and New Mexico, along with Colorado, saw astonishing rates of growth in transfer payments, while Indiana was held down by a drop in that income category. “Net earnings” (employee compensation plus proprietors' income) was much evener, with Texas's growth rate of 8.5 percent at the top and Indiana's 3.2 percent the lowest.

  Last week the numbers on 2021 nominal and real personal consumption and real personal income by state were issued. The high for real spending growth was Utah's 12.5 percent, while West Virginia's 2.0 percent was the low. Numbers of states in the Rocky Mountains had growth exceeding 10 percent, as did Massachusetts, New Jersey, and Florida. West Virginia and Alaska (3.1 percent) were considerable outliers on the low side: no other state was under 5 percent.

  The availability of both nominal and real consumer spending figures allows for the computation of state consumption price deflators and their growth. The range of growth went from Vermont's 0.5 percent to West Virginia's 8.1. Other New England states—Maine, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, and Connecticut—also saw deflator growth under 2 percent., while Arizona Nevada, and New Mexico were also on the low side. Other high growth states included Alaska and South Carolina (North Carolina was also high). Differences in state deflators, and their growth, would largely reflect differences in service costs (as one would expect, Alaska and Hawaii have the largest divergence in good price levels), especially housing, but also utilities. Thus, it isn't surprising that there is some regional theme to divergences.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| Dec 16 2022

  State Labor Markets in November 2022

  State labor market results in November continue to show lessened improvement and, in some measures, some softening. Eight states had statistically significant increases in payrolls. West Virginia saw a 1 percent gain, and New Hampshire’s .6 percent was the only other gain higher than ½ percent. Florida saw the largest numerical increase. Its 28,100 is fairly small compared to earlier months, where the leaders generally with state pickups of more than 50,000 Over the last 12 months, every state (and DC) saw a gain in payrolls, but in six cases (as well as in DC) the increases were not seen as statistically significant. Texas’s 5.1 percent gain over this period was the largest.

  12 states saw statistically significant increases in their unemployment rates from October to November, but none larger and .3 percentage point. Three states, and DC, had statistically significant declines, none greater than .2 percentage point. Nevada’s 4.9 percent rate was the nation’s highest, with DC and Illinois also posting rates above 4.5 percent; Utah’s 2.2 percent the lowest, with Minnesota and both Dakotas the other ones with rates under 2.5 percent (in October seven states had rates of 2.4 percent or lower).

  Puerto Rico's job count rose by more than 4,000, but once again there was insufficient information to compute the (seasonally-adjusted) unemployment rate on the island.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| Nov 23 2022

  State Coincident Indexes in October 2022

  The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s state coincident indexes in October softened, with only 23 states reporting gains from September, one (California) unchanged, and 26 seeing declines. Maryland’s index fell more than 1 percent, while number 1 Hawaii was up only .77 percent, which is fairly modest for a leader. At the three-month horizon, eleven states were down, with Maine and Montana off by more than 1 percent and West Virginia just short of that (.99 percent). On the upside, Hawaii and Alaska saw increases of more than 2 percent. Over the past 12 months, Massachusetts’s index was up nearly 9 percent, and 18 other states had increase of at least 5 percent Both Mississippi and Oklahoma had increases of less than 2 percent over this period. In all cases noted (growth at the top, numbers growing slowly and rapidly) the October results were less robust than September’s initial numbers.

  Yet again, the independently estimated national figures of growth over the last 3 (.69 percent) and 12 (4.60 percent) months look weaker than the state figures would imply. These results were also lower than in the initial September report.

  Hawaii has surpassed its pre-pandemic peak in this series; Connecticut is still short, by the smallest of margins. Connecticut’s index dropped in October, but its revised September reading was 121.49. The state’s peak was 121.50 in March 2020.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| Nov 18 2022

  State Labor Markets in October 2022

  State labor market results in October were softer than in the last couple of years, though not very weak. Seven states had statistically significant increases in payrolls, with Colorado’s .8 percent gain the largest in those terms. California picked up more than 50,000 jobs, and Texas slightly short of that. Over the last 12 months, every state (and DC) saw a gain in payrolls, thought the increases in Alaska, DC, Mississippi, and Wyoming were not deemed to be statistically significant. Florida and Texas were the only states to see gains of at least 5.0 percent (California’s absolute increase was a hair larger than Texas’s.

  A full 24 states experienced statistically significant increases in their unemployment rates from September to October (Pennsylvania’s fell .1 percentage point to 4.0 percent), but in the vast majority of cases these were, in absolute terms, fairly modest. Only Maryland’s .5 percentage point rise (from 4.0 to 4.5 percent) would normally be considered large. Unemployment rates remain fairly low across the nation DC’s rate is the highest tin the nation, at 4.8 percent, while Illinois and Nevada are both at 4.6 percent. Seven states have rates of 2.4 percent or lower.

  Puerto Rico’s job count was little-changed, and for a second straight month there was insufficient information to compute the unemployment rate on the island.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| Oct 27 2022

  State Coincident Indexes in September 2022

  The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's state coincident indexes in September were again somewhat softer than earlier, and somewhat dispersed. 11 states report declines from August to September, with Montana down .59 percent. On the plus side, both Hawaii and New Jersey clocked increases above 1 percent and New York was just shy at .99 (the Northeast was strong, with Massachusetts and Maryland both comparable to New York, and Pennsylvania at .59 percent). At the three-month horizon, six states declined, with West Virginia and Montana, as in the initial August report, both off by more than one percent. Hawaii and Indiana both had increases above 2 percent. Over the past 12 months, Massachusetts's index was up more than 9 1/2 percent, and 25 other states had increase of at least 5 percent. Four states (Arizona, Wisconsin, Oklahoma, and Mississippi) had increases of less than 3 percent over this period.

  As always seems to be the case, the independently estimated national figures of growth over the last 3 (1.02 percent) and 12 (4.98 percent) months look weaker than the state figures would imply.

  Connecticut and Hawaii remain under-by very small margins--their pre-pandemic peaks in this series.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| Oct 21 2022

  State Labor Markets in September 2022

  State labor market results in September were on the whole mixed. Only 9 states experienced statistically significant increases in payrolls, with New Hampshire's .8 percent gain the only one larger than ½ of one percent; however, Delaware saw a statistically significant drop of .6 percent. On the positive side Florida gained 48,800 jobs and Texas picked up 40,000. Over the last 12 months, every state (and DC) saw a gain in payrolls, though in Mississippi the increase was not deemed to be statistically significant. Texas's 5.6 increase was (again) the largest, Louisiana saw a 5.2 percent increased, Florida was up 5.1 percent, and Georgia 5.0 percent. Aside from Mississippi, Ohio had the smallest increase (1.7 percent).

  11 states saw statistically significant increases in their unemployment rates in September, but the largest was only .3 percentage point (Rhode Island, form 2.8 to 3.1 percent). 9 states saw statistically significant declines, led by New Jersey's .7 percentage point plunge (more or less evenly split between an increase in employment and a drop in the labor force). The range of state unemployment rates is now fairly narrow—from Minnesota's 2.0 percent to Alaska's 4.4 (the latter is a record low for the state). DC's rate was 4.7 percent.

  Hurricane Fiona prevented the computation of Puerto Rico's September labor force and unemployment data. Payrolls on the island were virtually unchanged (the pont estimate was down 100).

  Viewpoint commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| Sep 30 2022

  State GDP and Personal Income

  State real GDP growth ranged widely in 2022: Q2. 40 states saw declines, with Wyoming’s -4.8 percent rate the lowest. However, there were also a number of increases, led by Tezas’s 1.8 percent. The diversity can be best illustrated by noting that Connecticut, a state will very little in common with Wyoming, saw a comparable decline (-4.7 percent). Moreover, West Virginia, like Wyoming heavily dependent on coal production, had a 1.4 percent growth rate. Some of the price increases were also interesting: North Dakota’s current-dollar GDP rose at a spectacular 30.5 percent rate, while its real output fell at a 0.7 percent rate, meaning that the state’s GDP deflator rose at a rate above 31 percent—obviously, a reflection of the spring surge in oil prices.

  Looking at industry contributions, major sources of declines were construction, nondurable goods manufacturing, and wholesale trade (all three down in every state). A large pickup in accommodations and food services was arithmetically responsible for Hawaii being one of the few states with a real GDP increase.

  State personal income and GDP are now reported in the same release. Q2 growth rates ranged from 10.9 percent in North Dakota (oil prices again at work) to Connecticut’s 2.2 percent.

  Viewpoint commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| Sep 21 2022

  State Coincident Indexes in August 2022

  The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's state coincident indexes in August were more dispersed, and generally softer, than in recent months, though the general pattern still shows substantive growth. A full 15 states recorded declines from July, with West Virginia down .84 percent. Four states, all in the South had increases above .5 percent, with South Carolina's .59 percent the highest. At the three-month horizon, four states declined, with West Virginia and Montana off by more than one percent. At the top, only North Dakota and Massachusetts had gains over 2 percent. Over the past 12 months, Massachusetts's index was up more than 10 percent, and 28 other states had increase of at least 5 percent. Mississippi was the only state with its index increasing less than 3 percent over this period.

  Yet again, the independently estimated national figures of growth over the last 3 (.85 percent) and 12 (5.14 percent) months look weaker than the state figures would imply.

  Connecticut and Hawaii remain the only states that have not yet passed their pre-pandemic peaks in this series.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| Sep 16 2022

  State Labor Markets in August 2022

  State labor market results in August were somewhat less robust than in July, with less widespread monthly job growth and some increases in unemployment rates. Only 10 states saw statistically significant increases in payrolls, with Alaska and Kentucky both up 1.4 percent, while Mississippi saw a .7 percent drop. No state saw a numerical gain larger than Kentucky's 26,700. Over the last 12 months, every state (and DC) saw a gain in payrolls, though in 4 cases the increases were not deemed to be statistically significant. Texas's 5.7 increase was the largest, while Nevada's 5.0 percent was second, while 2 other very large states (Florida and New York) had gains above 4 1/2 percent , as did Georgia and New Jersey. Mississippi and New Hampshire were the only states with (not statistically significant) gains of less than 1 ½ percent.

  A full 16 states experienced statistically significant increases in their unemployment rates in August, with the rates in Maryland, Connecticut, and New York all up .4 percentage point (New Jersey's rose .3 percent). Minnesota had the lowest unemployment rate (1.9 percent) and Alaska the highest (4.6 percent) among states—DC's rate was 5.1 percent. There appears to be substantial divergence between state and national seasonal adjustments.in the household survey. New Jersey was the sole state to report labor force growth, seasonally adjusted, higher than the brisk national gain of .48 percent.

  Due to a drop in its labor force, Puerto Rico's unemployment rate edged down to 5.8 percent, setting another new record low. The island did gain 5,500 jobs to reach a nine-year high.

  Puerto Rico's labor market also showed some improvement. The island gained 7,500 jobs (.8 percent) in July, and the unemployment rate fell to 5.9 percent—another record low for this series, which starts in 1976, and the first time the rate has been under 6 percent. However, the drop in the unemployment rate from June to July was an artifact of a decline in the labor force, as resident employment declined.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| Aug 24 2022

  State Coincident Indexes in July 2022

  The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's state coincident indexes in July were modestly dispersed, but arguably less so than in recent months. Only three states (Indiana, West Virginia, and Montana) are reported to have declined. Thirty states had increases between .25 and .75 percent. At the top, New Mexico, Massachusetts, and Nevada had gains higher than one percent. At the 3-month horizon Montana and Arkansas again saw drops, but only three others had gains of less than ½ of one percent, while 11 others had increases of less than one percent. Massachusetts was again the only state with an increase of more than three percent, and 8 others were above two percent. Over the last 12 months, it was again the case that every state had gains of at least 3 percent, with three (West Virginia, Massachusetts, and California) up more than 10 percent,

  As always seems to be the case, the independently estimated national figures of growth over the last 3 (1,1 percent) and 12 (5.6 percent) months look substantively weaker than the state figures.

  Connecticut and Hawaii are now the only states that have not yet passed their pre-pandemic peaks in this series.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| Aug 19 2022

  State Labor Markets in July 2022

  State labor market results in June were generally strong. While 20 states had statistically significant increases in payrolls—led by Hawaii's 1.3 percent increase—2 saw significant declines. The outliers were Kentucky and Tennessee, and one suspects the flooding in that part of the nation played a role. Elsewhere, gains were more uniform. After Hawaii, the largest increases were .9 percent in Missouri and Arkansas. The largest absolute gain was California's 84,800. Over the last year all states had at least point increases in payrolls, though in a handful the gains weren't statistically significant. Alaska, Kansas, Vermont, and Wisconsin were the only states with increases less than 1 ½ percent. Texas's 5.8 percent gain (736,700) was the largest, though the absolute increase in California was very slightly larger.

  Fourteen states, plus DC, saw declines in their unemployment rates in July, led by a .4 percentage point drop in New Mexico. Indiana, Montana, and Nebraska had statistically significant modest increases. DC's rate in July was 5.2 percent, and Minnesota's was 1.8 percent. The other 49 states had rates in the 2.0 to 4.5 percent range.

  Puerto Rico's labor market also showed some improvement. The island gained 7,500 jobs (.8 percent) in July, and the unemployment rate fell to 5.9 percent—another record low for this series, which starts in 1976, and the first time the rate has been under 6 percent. However, the drop in the unemployment rate from June to July was an artifact of a decline in the labor force, as resident employment declined.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints