Introducing

Charles Steindel

Charles Steindel has been editor of Business Economics, the journal of the National Association for Business Economics, since 2016. From 2014 to 2021 he was Resident Scholar at the Anisfield School of Business, Ramapo College of New Jersey. From 2010 to 2014 he was the first Chief Economist of the New Jersey Department of the Treasury, with responsibilities for economic and revenue projections and analysis of state economic policy. He came to the Treasury after a long career at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, where he played a major role in forecasting and policy advice and rose to the rank of Senior Vice-President. He has served in leadership positions in a number of professional organizations. In 2011 he received the William F. Butler Award from the New York Association for Business Economics, is a fellow of NABE and of the Money Marketeers of New York University, and has received several awards for articles published in Business Economics. In 2017 he delivered Ramapo College's Sebastian J. Raciti Memorial Lecture. He is a member of the panel for the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Survey of Professional Forecasters and of the Committee on Research in Income and Wealth. He has published papers in a range of areas, and is the author of Economic Indicators for Professionals: Putting the Statistics into Perspective. He received his bachelor's degree from Emory University, his Ph.D. from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and is a National Association for Business Economics Certified Business EconomistTM.

Publications by Charles Steindel

• USA| Aug 23 2023

  State Coincident Indexes in July 2023

  The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s state coincident indexes in July suggest a slowdown in the rate of growth. 8 states saw declines in their indexes from June, with West Virginia and Montana down about .6 percent. No state had a gain larger than Pennsylvania’s 1 percent. Massachusetts and Maryland were again the leaders in growth over the last 3 months, but in both cases the increases were not above 3 percent (Massachusetts’ gain rounded up to 3 percent). 36 states had growth of 1 percent or lower, with 5 experiencing outright declines (Montana was down 1 percent). The 12-month numbers look better, with Massachusetts up a remarkable 7.3 percent, and Maryland rising 6.4 percent. Arkansas and Missouri had increases of less than 1 percent.

  The independently estimated national figures of growth over the last 3 months (.60 percent) and 12 months (3.25 percent) both look to be roughly in line with what the state figures suggest.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| Aug 18 2023

  State Labor Markets in July 2023

  Only 4 states saw statistically significant increases in payrolls in July. Florida picked up 44,500 jobs, while Vermont had a .9 percent gain. The large increase in Vermont is a bit puzzling, since the disruptions caused by major flooding in that state occurred in mid-month, when the payroll count occurs (leisure and hospitality jobs did fall). Still, Vermont jobs had dropped sharply in June, so the July gain may be mostly normalization, perhaps related to seasonal adjustment issues.

  7 states had statistically significant drops in unemployment from June to July, led by Pennsylvania’s .3 percentage point fall. Nevada continues to have the highest rate of any state in the nation, at 5.3 percent. 3 states had significant .1 percentage point gains, though a number of others also experienced point increases, led by New Jersey’s .2 percentage point boost. Nevada, DC, and California all had unemployment rates at least one point higher than the national average of 3.5 percent. Alabama, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Montana, Nebraska, New Hampshire, both Dakotas, Utah, Vermont, and Virginia, were all at least a point lower, with New Hampshire at 1.7 percent.

  Puerto Rico’s unemployment rate moved up to 6.2 percent. The job count increase of nearly 5,000 did not reverse all of June’s decline. The recent moves were mainly in the public sector.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| Jul 26 2023

  State Coincident Indexes in June 2023

  The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s state coincident indexes in June increased from May in all but 3 states (New Jersey, Indiana, and Montana). Maryland and Washington were the leaders, and the only states with increases above 1 percent. Massachusetts (whose gain in June was just shy of 1 percent) had the largest 3-month increase, close to 4 percent—more than a percentage point above number 2 Maryland. In a sign that growth is cooling 28 states had gains of less than 1 percent in this period, including Montana’s small decline. Over the past 12 months, Massachusetts was once again the leader, with an increase of 6 ¾ percent, with Maryland a point behind (Bay Staters are likely fairly indifferent to that gap given the Orioles’ current lead over the Red Sox). Minnesota and Missouri had increases of less than 1 percent.

  The independently estimated national figures of growth over the last 3 months (.73 percent) looks roughly in line of what the state figures suggest, while the corresponding 12-month result (3.50 percent) looks like it might be somewhat stronger than the state numbers.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| Jul 21 2023

  State Labor Markets in June 2023

  For a third straight month, the initial estimate of state labor markets for June had only 5 states sieeing statistically significant increases in payrolls, none appreciably numerically large. New York had the highest absolute gain (28,100) and Alabama had a .9% gain. Two states had statistically significant declines, with Indiana losing 13,900 jobs and Vermont recording a 1.4 percent drop (the other 5 New England states had insignificant declines).

  11 states had statistically significant drops in unemployment from May to June (the same number as in May). Maryland’s .4 percentage point decline was the highest. Yet again, Nevada’s unemployment rate stayed the highest in the nation at an unchanged 5.4 percent. In another repeat from May, no other state had a rate more than a point higher than the national 3.7 percent, though DC’s was 5.1 percent. Alabama, Maine, Maryland, Montana, Nebraska, New Hampshire, North Dakota, South Dakota, Utah, Vermont, and Wisconsin all have rates more than a point lower than the nation, with New Hampshire and South Dakota both at 1.8 percent. California, Texas, Illinois, Washington, and Delaware (along with DC) are the states other than Nevada with rates at or above 4 percent.

  Puerto Rico’s unemployment rate stayed at 6.1 percent. The job count on the island moved below 950,000. The bulk of the 8,200 drop was in the public sector.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| Jun 30 2023

  State GDP and Personal Income in Q1 2023

  State real GDP growth in 2023:1 ranged from North Dakota’s 12.4 percent annual rate to 0.1 percent in Rhode Island and Alabama. Growth was generally strongest in agricultural regions (though estimating the growth of farm output in the first quarter is always problematic). Northeastern states grew more slowly, in some instances in part due to weakness in agriculture, in others losses in manufacturing.

  State personal income growth rates ranged from Maine’s 11.4 percent to Indiana’s -1.0 percent. As always, erratic swings in transfer payments account for much of the variation by state. Net earnings (employee compensation plus proprietors’ income) growth was strong in agricultural states, presumably due to a rise in farm income associated with the increase in agricultural output.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| Jun 23 2023

  State Coincident Indexes in May 2023

  The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s state coincident indexes in May increased in from April in all but 3 states (Rhode Island, Minnesota, and Kentucky). Vermont and Massachusetts were again the leaders, and the only states with increases above 1 percent, but unlike in April Massachusetts took the top spot. These two were also the states with the largest 3-month increases (Massachusetts was up by close to 4 percent). However, a full 23 states had increases over this horizon of less than 1 percent (Rhode Island’s was barely positive). Over the past 12 months, Massachusetts was yet again the leader, with an increase of over 6 percent, perhaps some consolation for the Celtics’ fadeout in the NBA playoffs. Texas was a fairly distant second. Kansas and Missouri had increases of less than 1 percent.

  The independently estimated national figures of growth over the last 3 months (.78 percent) looks roughly in line, though perhaps a bit short, of what the state figures suggest, while the corresponding 12-month result (3.65 percent) looks like it might be somewhat stronger than the state numbers.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| Jun 16 2023

  State Labor Markets in May 2023

  As was the case in the April report, only 5 states saw statistically significant increases in payrolls in May, with Texas gaining 51,000 jobs. Utah has the largest percentage increase: .5. A fair number of states report insignificant decreases.

  11 states had statistically significant drops in unemployment from April to May, none larger than .3 percentage point. Nevada’s unemployment rate stayed the highest in the nation at an unchanged 5.4 percent. No other state had a rate more than a point higher than the national 3.7 percent, though DC’s was 5.1 percent. Alabama, Florida, Idaho, Maine, Maryland, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, New Hampshire, North Dakota, South Dakota, Utah, Vermont, and Wisconsin all have rates more than a point lower than the nation, with New Hampshire and South Dakota both at 1.9 percent. California, Texas, Illinois, Oregon, Washington, and Delaware (along with DC) are the states other than Nevada with rates at or above 4 percent. While the seasonally adjusted state rates are not strictly comparable to the national rate, the relatively high rates in the two largest states help explain why so many states can have rates far below the national average, and only handful somewhat higher.

  Puerto Rico’s unemployment rate edged up to 6.1 percent. The job count on the island moved above 950,000 (the initial April count was also above 950,00, but there has been a downward revision). Private employment set a new all-time peak, surpassing the old March 2006 record.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| May 30 2023

  State Coincident Indexes in April 2023

  The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s state coincident indexes in April report gains in all states from March. Vermont had the largest increase (1.27 percent) while neighboring Massachusetts was the other state with a rise of more than 1 percent. West Virginia was, once again, the leading state at the three-month horizon, up a bit more than 3 percent, while Vermont—perhaps the second hilliest Eastern state, after West Virginia—was second. The majority of states again had increases of at least 1 percent since January; Alaska was again the only state with a decline over this horizon. Over the past 12 months, Massachusetts was the leader, with an increase of almost 4 ½ percent, barely edging Texas and New Mexico. Kansas was the only state with an increase of less than 1 percent since April 2022.

  The independently estimated national figures of growth over the last 3 months (.74 percent) appears to be short of what the state figures suggest, while the corresponding 12-month result (3.72 percent) looks more or less in line with the state numbers.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| May 19 2023

  State Labor Markets in April

  Marked changes in state payrolls were limited in April. 5 states saw statistically significant increases, with California up by 67,000 and Indiana seeing a .5 percent increase. Rhode Island had a sharp .8 percent decline, and a few other states (and DC) had insignificant decreases.

  A full 14 states had statistically significant drops in unemployment from March to April. Oregon’s .4 percentage point decline (coming on the heels of a .3 percentage point drop in March) was the largest. Nevada continues to have the highest unemployment rate in the nation, at 5.4 percent. California and DC are the only other places with unemployment more than a point higher than the national averages of 3.4 percent. Alabama, Montana, Nebraska, New Hampshire, both Dakotas, and Utah are more than point under the national figures, with South Dakota remaining at 1.9 percent. Indeed, 17 states, including Florida have unemployment rates below 3 percent. On the flip side, along with California’s 4.5 percent rate, New York and Texas both have jobless figures of 4 percent.

  Puerto Rico’s unemployment rate remained at 6.0 percent, but its job count moved above 950,000 for the first time since 2009. Payrolls on the island had (excepting the Maria and COVID shocks) been under 900,000, but have been on a steady increase in this expansion. The record high was October 2004’s 1,059,200. However, Puerto Rico’s job markets has shifted dramatically since then: private payrolls are now only 400 shy of their peak.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| Apr 26 2023

  State Coincident Indexes in March 2023

  The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s state coincident indexes in March show only one state (Alaska) with a decline from February. West Virginia again had the largest increase: a whopping 1.69 percent (Massachusetts and South Dakota were just shy of 1 percent). At the three-month horizon Alaska was also the only state to see a loss, and West Virginia registered the highest increase, with its 3.91 percent gain about 1 ¾ percentage points above number 2 Montana. A remarkable 26 states had increases above 1 percent. Over the past 12 months, New Mexico was the leader (as was the case in February’s report) with an increase over 5 percent (Florida was barely short. Florida, Nevada, and Texas were the other states with gains above 4 percent. Wyoming, Vermont, and Kansas were the states with increases less than 1 percent over this period.

  The independently estimated national figures of growth over the last 3 months (.86 percent) seems short of what the state figures suggest, while the corresponding 12-month result (3.85 percent) looks somewhat higher than what the state results might suggest.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| Apr 21 2023

  State Labor Markets in March 2023

  State payrolls were little-changed in March. Only 2 states (Massachusetts and Kentucky) saw statistically significant increases, and a number saw point declines. The largest numerical gain was Texas’s 28,600. The sum of the changes in all the states was a modest 177,300.

  18 states saw statistically significant declines in unemployment, none larger than the .3 percentage point drops in New Hampshire, Oregon, and West Virginia. DC experienced a .1 percentage point increase. Nevada continued to have the highest unemployment rate, 5.5 percent. The two Washingtons (DC and the state) were the only other places with unemployment rates as much as a point higher than the national average of 3.5 percent. Alabama, Nebraska, New Hampshire, South Dakota, and Wisconsin were at least a pointer under the national rate, with that n South Dakota an incredible 1.9 percent.

  Puerto Rico’s unemployment rate held at 6.0 percent, and its job count was essentially unchanged.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| Apr 04 2023

  State Coincident Indexes in February 2023

  The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s state coincident indexes in February were generally up. Only 3 states (Connecticut, Pennsylvania, and Massachusetts) saw declines from January; West Virginia’s 1.11 percent gain was far and away the largest. All states saw increases over the three months since November, with only 3 (New Jersey, New York, and Arkansas) having gains less than .5 percent, and 17 growing more than 1 percent (West Virginia was again on top, with a 2.35 percent increase). Over the past 12 months, New Mexico was the only state with an increase over 5 percent (Florida was barely short, while Texas and California were well over 4 percent)), while Hawaii and Kansas were the only states with gains less than 1 percent.

  The independently estimated national figures of growth over the last 3 months (.16 percent) seems a bit short of what the state figures suggest, but the corresponding 12-month result (3.95 percent) looks plausibly in line with those of the states.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints