The global backdrop remains unsettled, reflected in rising gold prices amid geopolitical tensions—most recently around Venezuela—and renewed political noise, including questions over Federal Reserve independence. At the same time, however, many major equity indices remain at or close to all-time highs, buoyed by optimism around AI and reinforced by a run of relatively benign US inflation readings. Against this mixed backdrop, the charts this week point to a global outlook that is becoming more differentiated rather than uniformly weaker. Blue Chip forecasts for 2026 growth have edged higher over the past six months, with upgrades concentrated in economies most exposed to the AI investment cycle, notably the US and parts of Asia (chart 1). Central bank expectations remain fluid: while panelists broadly anticipate easing by the Fed and Bank of England, conviction around timing is limited, and the Bank of Japan remains an outlier with further tightening still expected (chart 2). In the UK, that uncertainty sits alongside a deteriorating data flow, with negative economic surprises increasingly tilting market expectations toward an earlier BoE rate cut (chart 3). Turning to the US, special questions highlight a divide over whether AI is already having a noticeable macro impact or whether its effects will emerge more gradually, a tension that mirrors concerns about over-optimism in financial markets (chart4). That debate is echoed in the recent pick-up in US productivity growth and the step-change in business formation—developments that may reflect AI-related dynamics but which also warrant caution given the historically cyclical nature of productivity (chart 5). Finally, China’s trade data point to a continued re-orientation of export growth away from the US and toward Europe and ASEAN, consistent with evolving US trade policy and broader supply-chain realignment (chart 6).
Introducing
Andrew Cates
in:Our Authors
Andy Cates joined Haver Analytics as a Senior Economist in 2020. Andy has more than 25 years of experience forecasting the global economic outlook and in assessing the implications for policy settings and financial markets. He has held various senior positions in London in a number of Investment Banks including as Head of Developed Markets Economics at Nomura and as Chief Eurozone Economist at RBS. These followed a spell of 21 years as Senior International Economist at UBS, 5 of which were spent in Singapore. Prior to his time in financial services Andy was a UK economist at HM Treasury in London holding positions in the domestic forecasting and macroeconomic modelling units. He has a BA in Economics from the University of York and an MSc in Economics and Econometrics from the University of Southampton.
Publications by Andrew Cates
Global| Jan 15 2026Charts of the Week: Between Optimism and Uncertainty
by:Andrew Cates
|in:Economy in Brief
Global| Jan 08 2026Charts of the Week: Cooling Inflation, Diverging Growth
Over the past few weeks, global financial markets have taken comfort from cooling inflation, resilient earnings and continued upside surprises in the dataflow, with equity markets extending gains as confidence in a soft-landing outcome has firmed. While AI-related optimism was questioned toward the end of last year, amid valuation concerns and uncertainty over near-term payoffs, sentiment has improved again in recent days. Latest business surveys suggest little immediate cause for alarm on the global growth front (chart 1), despite clear signs of divergence across regions. At the same time, there are few near-term inflation concerns evident in the data, with global supply-chain pressures remaining subdued (chart 2). Taken together, these developments leave little immediate challenge to the prevailing outlook for monetary policy, with expectations for further gradual easing across several major economies remaining broadly intact (chart 3). At the same time, geopolitical shocks — most notably the upheaval in Venezuela — have reignited focus on energy market risks and sovereign debt uncertainties, adding complexity to oil price expectations and fiscal trajectories (chart 4). Shifting focus, China’s role also continues to remain pivotal: surplus industrial capacity and competitive export pricing continue to shape global trade and exert disinflationary influence (chart 5). Against this backdrop, public debt levels that are both elevated and still rising in many large economies underscore the structural imbalances that could limit policy flexibility and amplify market sensitivities in the immediate months ahead (chart 6).
by:Andrew Cates
|in:Economy in Brief
Global| Dec 18 2025Charts of the Week: The Upside Risks
This marks our final Charts of the Week publication for 2025 The next edition will be released on Thursday 8 January.
Last week’s Charts of the Week focused on the darker tail risks hanging over the 2026 outlook: the possibility of monetary policy mis-calibration, that geopolitics and trade fragmentation further disrupt supply chains, and that elevated debt levels—particularly in the public sector—reassert themselves as a drag on growth. This week’s charts take a deliberately different tack. Taken together, they highlight a set of upside risks that are possibly underappreciated in current forecasts. For example, policy easing across advanced economies may extend further than expected as disinflation feeds on itself (chart 1); oil prices could surprise on the downside as inventories rebuild (chart 2); US productivity may deliver incremental but meaningful gains sooner than assumed (chart 3); the US economy itself could continue to benefit from an absence of private-sector financial stress (chart 4); India’s growth momentum might firm again as inflation pressures recede (chart 5); and, more broadly, parts of the Global South appear increasingly capable of generating their own demand impulse, supported by favourable demographics and income growth (chart 6). None of these forces is guaranteed, and each carries its own caveats—but together they suggest that, having spent much of the past year fixated on downside risks, the risks to global growth in 2026 may be more evenly balanced than is widely assumed.
by:Andrew Cates
|in:Economy in Brief
Global| Dec 11 2025Charts of the Week: The Downside Risks
As 2025 draws to a close, the global economy enters 2026 with a surprisingly resilient backdrop: equity markets are still trading near cycle highs, volatility is subdued, and consensus forecasts have been drifting upward in recent months—helped by a robust US economy, firmer momentum across Asia, and optimism that AI-related investment will continue to lift the medium-term outlook (chart 1). Against this relatively constructive starting point, we focus this week on the key downside risks that could challenge the consensus narrative next year: the possibility of monetary-policy miscalibration (chart 2); the gap between elevated policy uncertainty and unusually calm financial markets (chart 3); the risk that financial markets may be overestimating the gains from AI (chart 4); renewed strain in global trade (chart 5); and geopolitical tensions (chart 6). These risks do not dominate the baseline outlook, but they help frame the vulnerabilities that could matter if global conditions deteriorate. Next week, we will turn to the upside risks—the forces that could allow the world economy to outperform again in 2026.
by:Andrew Cates
|in:Economy in Brief
Global| Dec 04 2025Charts of the Week: Diverging Paths, Converging Risks
Global financial markets have been navigating a more unsettled backdrop in recent weeks, with choppier risk sentiment and shifting rate expectations reshaping the macro narrative. US assets have been particularly sensitive to signs of cooling labour-market momentum and the temporary loss of official payroll data during the government shutdown, while rising real yields in Japan and renewed fiscal tightening in the UK have added further cross-currents. Against this backdrop, Blue Chip forecasts point to a world edging gradually toward easier monetary policy, but with a striking divergence between a more dovish Fed and a still-normalising Bank of Japan (chart 1). The softening in US private payroll growth, captured by the ADP data, reinforces the case for Fed easing at a time when official data are unavailable (chart 2). In the euro area, sticky underlying inflation could leave the ECB wary of further meaningful cuts (Chart 3). Japan’s climb in real JGB yields, underpinned by stronger capex and supportive policy signals, continues to reverberate through global rate markets (chart 4). In the UK, the gilt–Treasury spread has widened over the year but narrowed slightly post-Budget as investors priced the growth-dampening effects of fiscal tightening (chart 5). And in the global goods sector, while the manufacturing PMI still points to only mediocre growth, the revival in South Korean semiconductor exports underscores the extent to which AI-related demand remains one of the few clear bright spots in an otherwise subdued industrial landscape (chart 6).
by:Andrew Cates
|in:Economy in Brief
Global| Nov 20 2025Charts of the Week: The Year Ahead
As 2025 draws to a close, the global economy feels caught between relief and unease. Inflation has eased but not fully retreated, monetary-policy cycles are pulling in different directions, markets are oscillating between AI-driven enthusiasm and valuation nerves, and geopolitical tensions are pressing harder on trade, energy and investment flows. Against this backdrop, the twelve themes that follow set out the forces most likely to shape the macro, market and policy landscape in 2026. They range from the pivotal questions around whether AI will deliver visible productivity gains, how far the AI narrative can continue to support markets, and how policymakers will manage an unusually uncertain interest-rate outlook, to the broader pressures created by fiscal strains, climate stress, shifting trade patterns, geopolitical fragmentation, political transitions, and demographic change. Taken together, they offer a map of the terrain investors and policymakers will need to navigate in the year ahead — a world where cyclical dynamics and structural shifts arguably interact more tightly than at any point in the past decade, and where the biggest surprises are likely to emerge from those intersections.
Global| Nov 13 2025Charts of the Week: The Year in Review
The global economic story of 2025 has been one of resilience amid disruption. Despite a succession of shocks — from a renewed U.S.–China trade confrontation and elevated geopolitical risks, to a sharp rise in fiscal activism and the energy-intensive AI investment boom — the world economy has held up better than many feared. Activity data have consistently surprised on the upside, supporting buoyant equity markets and keeping volatility contained. Meanwhile, inflation has continued to ease and central banks have cautiously shifted toward easier policy, even as large government deficits have kept longer-term real yields elevated. At the same time, US tariff policies have re-emerged as a defining force in global trade, with steep new duties on Chinese, Canadian, and Mexican goods disrupting supply chains and prompting renewed fragmentation in world commerce. These measures have cooled bilateral trade flows and added another layer of uncertainty to an already unsettled policy environment. Yet uncertainty itself remains the dominant feature of 2025 — geopolitical tension, technological exuberance, and diverging fiscal and monetary paths have left investors navigating a world where optimism and fragility coexist.
by:Andrew Cates
|in:Economy in Brief
Global| Nov 06 2025Charts of the Week: Uneven But Unbroken
Recent financial market developments have been shaped by a renewed bout of volatility, with heightened concerns about stretched AI valuations triggering a big correction across parts of the tech sector. This comes against a backdrop of lingering uncertainty in Washington, where the US government shutdown has continued to delay the release of several key economic reports, clouding visibility on near-term momentum. Still, the broader macro signals offer a mixed but nuanced picture. Global manufacturing PMIs have continued to hold up, hinting that underlying industrial momentum remains resilient (chart 1). The latest US Senior Loan Officer Survey points to a stabilisation in credit conditions—banks remain cautious, but the most intense phase of tightening may have now passed (chart 2). In China, the October PMIs reflected renewed softness in manufacturing alongside a still-steady services sector, tentatively suggesting that growth may be rebalancing, albeit at a weaker aggregate pace of growth (chart 3). Australia’s inflation and labour market data, meanwhile, have complicated the case for near-term policy easing, with the RBA opting to stay on hold this week as core inflation remain sticky. In Argentina, currency weakness persists even as equity markets rally, highlighting the policy and market tension surrounding President Milei’s reform agenda (chart 5). And finally, at a more structural level, latest global emissions data serve as a reminder that energy, manufacturing, transport, and households remain the principal sources of CO₂—illustrating how the climate and energy transition will continue to shape the macro landscape well beyond the current economic cycle (chart 6).
by:Andrew Cates
|in:Economy in Brief
Global| Oct 30 2025Charts of the Week: Optimism with Caveats
Global equity markets are once again flirting with record highs, buoyed by renewed optimism that the global economy can achieve a soft landing—and by persistent enthusiasm over the potential productivity gains from AI-related investment. The Federal Reserve’s decision to cut rates by 25bps this week—its second this autumn—initially reinforced expectations that global monetary policy is shifting toward a more accommodative stance. However, Chair Powell’s reminder that a further cut in December was “not inevitable” tempered that optimism and was met with some disappointment in financial markets (chart 1). Even so, the broader tone remains constructive, though it contrasts with a still-fragile macro environment. Renewed conflict in Gaza, the ongoing US government shutdown, and intensifying trade tensions have kept risk sentiment uneven and underscored the fragility of the recovery. The latest flash PMIs (chart 2) show modest global expansion led by services, while manufacturing continues to struggle. Consumer confidence (chart 3) tells a similar story: sentiment has weakened in the US as the labour market softens, stabilised in the euro area, and improved slightly in the UK. In the euro area, sluggish money and credit growth (chart 4) and the ECB’s latest bank-lending survey confirm that financial conditions remain mildly restrictive despite recent rate cuts. The UK CBI Industrial Trends Survey (chart 5) points to manufacturers reducing inventories and deferring investment plans amid demand uncertainty. Externally, the Drewry Container Index (chart 6) has fallen back from 2024’s elevated levels, signalling easing supply-chain pressures and subdued traded-goods inflation—though tariff realignments remain a potential source of friction.
by:Andrew Cates
|in:Economy in Brief
Global| Oct 23 2025Charts of the Week: Risks and Relief
Financial markets have been caught between conflicting crosscurrents in recent days. On the one hand, risk sentiment has been weighed down by mounting concerns over US lenders and broader credit conditions, renewed tariff worries, the ongoing government shutdown, and growing unease about a potential AI-driven valuation bubble (chart 1). On the other, expectations have strengthened that major central banks will continue to ease policy in the face of softer growth and moderating inflation, fueling hopes of a soft landing (chart 2). Supporting that view, oil prices have declined off easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East (chart 3), and China’s credit impulse—together with stronger-than-expected GDP—has provided a quiet but important lift to global growth momentum (chart 4), even if property market weakness persists. US wage growth also continues to cool according to some private sector surveys (chart 5), helping to ease inflation concerns, while in the UK, softer headline inflation has been welcomed, though sticky services CPI and rising producer prices have tempered the good news (chart 6). Taken together, the macro narrative is one of lingering risks offset by moderating inflation pressures and easing hopes—an uneasy equilibrium that has left financial markets more volatile but still resilient.
by:Andrew Cates
|in:Economy in Brief
Global| Oct 16 2025Charts of the Week: Momentum With Caveats
Global financial markets are entering mid-October with a cautiously optimistic tone, supported by a mix of better macro data and easing geopolitical risk. This week’s latest IMF forecasts nudged global growth expectations higher for 2025, broadly in line with indication from the latest Blue Chip consensus, where revisions have been led by economies tied to the tech and semiconductor cycle (chart 1). That same dynamic is evident in the US, where surging AI-driven data-center investment has emerged as an unexpectedly powerful growth driver (chart 2). Still, the timing of AI’s broader payoff remains uncertain—forecasters see labor-market disruption coming before a measurable productivity boost, underscoring an important macro risk if investment runs ahead of realized gains (chart 3). On the geopolitical front, the announcement of peace in Gaza this week has also pushed global oil prices down, providing a welcome disinflationary impulse (chart 4). At the same time, US–China trade tensions remain troubling. China’s export growth in September was stronger than expected but with gains concentrated in ASEAN and the EU, while shipments to the US continue to contract (chart 5). Meanwhile, in the UK, signs of a loosening labor market have added to expectations that the Bank of England could deliver further rate cuts in the months ahead (chart 6). Against this backdrop—buoyed by AI optimism but clouded by policy uncertainty around the US government shutdown, US–China frictions, and execution risks on technology—the global outlook has brightened modestly, but remains finely balanced.
by:Andrew Cates
|in:Economy in Brief
Global| Oct 09 2025Charts of the Week: Shutdowns and Shake-Ups
Financial markets have been navigating a US government shutdown that has frozen key data releases and muddied the macro picture, while political cross-currents in Europe and Asia have added to the noise—France has seen yet another prime minister resign, while Japan’s leadership change is being read as a tilt toward easier fiscal policy. With official US data dark, investors are leaning on proxies—such as Haver’s state-sum jobless-claims series—to keep tabs on labour market momentum (chart 1). From there, our remaining charts this week point to an uneven global macroeconomic story: US labour productivity has remained well ahead of peers, a lead that maps closely to cheaper electricity—where power costs are low, capex and margins hold up; where they’re high, manufacturing strains and measured productivity sag (charts 2 and 3). Yet produced capital continues to climb even as natural capital per capita erodes, helping to keep real energy costs sticky and weighing on the world’s productivity fabric (chart 4). In markets, Japanese equities have surged on policy-support hopes even as yen softness lingers (chart 5), and in emerging Asia, Vietnam’s Q3 GDP shows re-acceleration and firming domestic demand, though exposure to evolving US tariff policies is keeping the export outlook uncertain (chart 6). Net-net: growth pockets persist, but high real energy costs, policy shifts, and patchy visibility argue for a choppy, bifurcated path ahead.
by:Andrew Cates
|in:Economy in Brief
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