_We have published this shorter edition of Charts of the Week earlier than normal owing to the US Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday. _ Investors have, on the whole, been taking a more positive view about the outlook for the world economy in the last couple of weeks in part because of evidence that the US inflation cycle may be turning. But there have been other fundamental factors that have – at the margin – contributed to a more upbeat market mood. For example, a sharp retreat in oil prices in the past few weeks – and their impact in lowering inflation expectations – ought to be good news for global growth as we underscore in our first chart this week. Incoming economic data have also been surprising the consensus on the upside more frequently in recent weeks, a trend that we highlight in our second chart. And finally, hopes have also risen that China may enact much less restrictive policies toward the COVID pandemic, which might unleash some pent-up demand, a point that we make via our final chart this week.
Introducing
Andrew Cates
in:Our Authors
Andy Cates joined Haver Analytics as a Senior Economist in 2020. Andy has more than 25 years of experience forecasting the global economic outlook and in assessing the implications for policy settings and financial markets. He has held various senior positions in London in a number of Investment Banks including as Head of Developed Markets Economics at Nomura and as Chief Eurozone Economist at RBS. These followed a spell of 21 years as Senior International Economist at UBS, 5 of which were spent in Singapore. Prior to his time in financial services Andy was a UK economist at HM Treasury in London holding positions in the domestic forecasting and macroeconomic modelling units. He has a BA in Economics from the University of York and an MSc in Economics and Econometrics from the University of Southampton.
Publications by Andrew Cates
Global| Nov 24 2022Charts of the Week (Nov 24, 2022)
by:Andrew Cates
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Nov 18 2022
Charts of the Week (Nov 18, 2022)
This week our first two charts home in on the enduring trend toward weaker growth expectations and rising inflation expectations that was featured in the November Blue Chip survey of economic forecasters. Despite that poor fundamental backdrop, risk assets in financial markets have nevertheless rallied in recent days thanks in large part to some weaker-than-expected US inflation data for October. And our next two charts underscore how important the evolution of US inflation – and monetary policy – could be in sustaining that risk rally in the period ahead. China's economy too has been in the spotlight this week thanks to a barrage of weaker-than-expected data, some of which we highlight in our fifth chart. Finally, we zoom in on Japan's economy and its weaker-than-expected Q3 GDP report which was also published this week.
by:Andrew Cates
|in:Economy in Brief
Global| Nov 11 2022Charts of the Week (Nov 11, 2022)
When (or indeed whether!) central banks will pivot toward more growth-friendly monetary policies remains a key question for financial markets at present. Our charts this week drill into some of the key issues with some perspectives on US CPI data (chart 1), the stance of US monetary policy (chart 2), Europe's business cycle position (chart 3) and global supply chain pressures (chart 4). There are seemingly no major inflation challenges in China at present, one reason for which is evidenced in our fifth chart this week. Finally, as policymakers meet in Egypt to discuss climate change challenges, our final chart this week offers some colour on global greenhouse gas emissions.
by:Andrew Cates
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Nov 04 2022
Charts of the Week (Nov 4, 2022)
While the US Fed's decision to lift interest rates by 75bps this week was widely expected, subsequent comments from Chair Powell have led financial markets to anticipate more hawkish policy (than previously anticipated) in the period ahead. As our first three charts this week suggest, however, there has arguably already been a big change in the inflation-generating capacity of the world economy in recent months which is magnifying the risks of a policy error. An acute dilemma is certainly being confronted at present by Japan's and China's policymakers, albeit for different reasons, messages conveyed by our fourth and fifth charts this week. Finally in our sixth chart we home in on a new index that we have recently added to our ESG database that measures disaster risks arising from extreme natural events and the negative consequences of climate change.
by:Andrew Cates
|in:Economy in Brief
Global| Oct 28 2022Charts of the Week (Oct 28, 2022)
Leading indicators that have been published in recent days suggest the outlook for the world economy has continued to darken and that global recession risks are rising. Our first few charts this week underscore that message with some perspectives on US economic data, European credit conditions, China's housing market and the stance of fiscal policy in the world's major economies. On a brighter note, however, our fifth chart homes in on Europe's plummeting natural gas prices in recent days, which is obviously good news for its growth and inflation outlook. Finally – and from a longer term perspective – we look at global temperature anomalies and with some observations about a possibly surprising trend that has emerged over the last few years.
by:Andrew Cates
|in:Economy in Brief
Global| Oct 21 2022Charts of the Week (Oct 21, 2022)
The list of factors that are weighing on the world economy at present is obviously very long, but are there any positives? In truth, there aren't that many! Nevertheless, our first three charts this week, looking at respectively energy prices, US capex and semiconductor demand, offer a few glimmers of hope about the global economic outlook in the period ahead. Some of those trends have carried some implications for global equity flows and for UK inflation, which are our focus in charts 4 and 5. Finally, we look at longer-term shifts in female labour force participation rates during the pandemic era, and the divergence in particular between high-income and low-income countries.
by:Andrew Cates
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Oct 14 2022
Charts of the Week (Oct 14, 2022)
Recession risks and financial market instability were hot topics at this week's IMF and World Bank annual meetings. And our charts this week home in on those themes. In our first two charts this week we look at the ebbing growth and rising inflation expectations that feature in this month's Blue Chip survey of economic forecasters. Some perspective on how the latter is generating a globally-synchronized monetary policy response - that's unparalleled in scope and size in recent decades - features in our third chart. And how this, in turn, is impacting global growth - and housing markets in particular - are underscored in our next two charts. Finally we highlight how the strength of the US dollar is further tightening global monetary conditions via its decoupling from growth fundamentals in emerging economies.
by:Andrew Cates
|in:Economy in Brief
Global| Oct 07 2022Charts of the Week (Oct 7, 2022)
A growing belief that central banks may soon "pivot" toward a more growth-friendly monetary policy strategy and away from fighting inflation has been a catalyst for a rally in risk assets in recent days. As our first three charts this week suggest, there is certainly some compelling evidence to support the idea that monetary policy has become more restrictive and that inflationary pressures from traded goods prices are in retreat. However, as our fourth chart also _ suggests, while additional evidence has emerged to suggest the US labour market is also now cooling off, many metrics still suggest that it remains in "overheating" territory. In the meantime, this week's news from OPEC about forthcoming production cuts might leave oil prices uncomfortably high for many policymakers in the period ahead. This is notwithstanding the evidence in our fifth chart that suggests - from a fiscal perspective - that many OPEC nations could cope with lower prices. It is possible that structural changes in the world economy also played some role in OPEC's recent decision. As our final chart this week suggests, the share of renewables in the world economy's capacity to generate electricity continues to climb, notwithstanding regional variations._
by:Andrew Cates
|in:Economy in Brief
Global| Sep 30 2022Charts of the Week (Sep 30, 2022)
Financial instability has risen meaningfully over the past few days as global equity markets have slumped to new lows for this year while US bond yields have spiked to new highs. As our first chart this week underscores, more hawkish rhetoric and policy activism from central banks – and the Fed in particular – have been key triggers for these moves. Another trigger, however, can be traced to the UK, where heightened concerns about debt sustainability and inflation have – as our second chart suggests – perhaps unsurprisingly soured demand for UK assets. Higher US interest rates appear to now be souring the outlook for the housing market too, as evidenced in our third chart this week. As for Europe, our fourth and fifth charts this week underscore how its dependence on Russian energy remains a key source of downside risk for the economy. Finally, Asia’s heavy dependence on world trade and lingering pandemic restrictions are additionally taking their toll on regional GDP growth, as evidenced in our final chart this week.
by:Andrew Cates
|in:Economy in Brief
Global| Sep 23 2022Charts of the Week (Sep 23, 2022)
Against a backdrop this week of enduring geopolitical tensions as well as the Fed's latest decision to lift interest rates the strength of the US dollar remains a key focal point for financial markets. With that in mind our first chart looks at how the dollar has performed in recent months compared with previous Fed tightening cycles. In the meantime the fragility of China's real estate sector and broader economy – a theme in our second chart this week – are generating ramifications for export growth in its key trading partners (e.g. South Korea) - a theme in our third chart. As for Europe the tremendous challenges that confront both the Bank of England and the European Central Bank in setting interest rates at present are underscored in our following two charts concerning energy prices and peripheral bond market spreads. Finally, we look at some lower-frequency economic data that offers some perspective about the potential capacity lurking in global labour markets.
by:Andrew Cates
|in:Economy in Brief
Global| Sep 16 2022Charts of the Week (Sep 16, 2022)
Financial markets were rattled this week following some stronger-than-expected US CPI data for August. With recent data also suggesting the US labour market is still eliciting unexpected vigour, investors are now pricing in an even more aggressive tightening campaign from the Fed in the coming months. Still, not all the news on the US inflation front has been negative. Our first two charts this week, for example, show that consumer and market-based surveys of US inflation expectations have been drifting lower over the past few weeks with weaker oil prices no doubt helping to foster those trends. But while oil prices have been in retreat, natural gas prices in Europe have, until recently, been resurgent, a key reason why our European charts this week are not as reassuring. A broader – and more comforting - message from transportation data, however, is that global trade patterns, having been distorted by the COVID pandemic, are now returning to more-normal levels. Having been choked by the pandemic and then by the war in Ukraine, this suggests supply chain bottlenecks have continued to ease. Longer-term supply-side challenges for the world economy remain acute, however, a message reinforced by our final chart this week on stocks of natural capital.
by:Andrew Cates
|in:Economy in Brief
Global| Sep 09 2022Charts of the Week (Sep 9, 2022)
In our charts this week we look at this week's final composite PMI surveys for August, recent trends in transportation costs, US import growth, and inflation data surprises. A broadly-based weakening in global demand and ebbing cost and price pressures as supply chain bottlenecks ease are some common threads. An additional thread, at least as far as Europe is concerned, is high energy prices and how policymakers – including the UK's new Prime Minister Liz Truss – enact policies designed to fend off their impact. The ECB delivered a 75bps hike in its key interest rates this week in order to fend off inflationary pressures as revised Q2 GDP data suggest the euro area economy has held up quite well in the first half of 2022. But the energy crisis and its likely impact in the months ahead will likely keep European policymakers active in the energy nexus in order to alleviate the inevitable economic strains.
by:Andrew Cates
|in:Economy in Brief
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