U.S. Payroll Growth Disappoints; Earnings Strengthen As Jobless Rate Falls in December
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Hiring growth is slowest of 2021.
- Jobless rate falls to lowest since February 2020.
- Earnings growth picks up.
As the Omicron variant emerged, labor market signals were mixed in December. Nonfarm payroll employment increased 199,000 (4.6% y/y), down from a 249,000 gain in November, revised from 210,000. For all of 2021, payrolls increased 2.8% after falling 5.8% in 2021. The level of payroll jobs remained 2.3% below its peak in February 2020. A 399,000 rise in December payrolls had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
The unemployment rate declined to 3.9% in December from 4.2% in November. Earlier figures were revised. A 4.1% rate had been expected. Employment in the household survey increased 651,000 last month following a 1.090 million November rise. The labor force rose 168,000 after rising 516,000 in November. The overall unemployment rate, including those who were marginally attached or working part-time for economic reasons, fell to 7.3% last month from 7.7% in November. It was the lowest level since February of 2020 and compared to a recession high of 22.9%.
Average hourly earnings increased 0.6% in December following a 0.4% November gain, revised from 0.3%. The 4.7% y/y increase compared to a 5.1% November high. A 0.4% monthly gain had been expected for December.
The employment & earnings data are collected from surveys taken each month during the week containing the 12th of the month. The labor market data are contained in Haver's USECON database. Detailed figures are in the EMPL and LABOR databases. The expectations figures are in the AS1REPNA database.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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