U.S. Trade Deficit Deepens in January to Another Record

The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services (BOP basis) widened to $131.4 billion in January from $98.1 billion in December, revised from $98.4 billion, and $78.2 billion in November, revised from $78.9 billion, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. A $123.0 billion deficit was expected by the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Exports rose 1.2% (4.1% y/y) in January after falling 2.6% in December. This was accompanied by a 10.0% (23.1% y/y) jump in imports which came after a 3.6% December gain.

The deficit in goods trade (BOP basis) swelled to $156.8 billion from $123.3 billion in December, revised from $123.0 billion. Goods exports (customs value) rose 1.6% (1.3% y/y) in January, after falling 3.8% in December. The January increase reflected an 8.1% (10.1% y/y) rise in capital goods exports which came after a 2.6% decline, and an 8.5% jump (0.4% y/y) in nonauto consumer goods exports which recouped an 8.4% December decline. Foods, feeds & beverage exports weakened 7.2% (-1.7% y/y) following a 1.1% December decline. Auto exports dropped 3.1% (-15.5% y/y) after a 6.6% weakening. Industrial supplies exports eased 0.7% (-2.0% y/y) following a 3.0% December drop.

Imports of goods surged 12.5% (26.1% y/y) in January after two monthly increases of roughly 4.2%. The strength was led by a 34.3% jump (65.3% y/y) in imports of industrial supplies and materials which came after a 19.1% jump in December. Nonauto consumer goods imports climbed 8.3% (26.0% y/y) following a 3.1% December increase. Capital goods imports rose 5.5% (18.2% y/y) following a 1.5% rise. Foods, feeds & beverage imports rose 4.3% (19.2% y/y) following a 1.6% decline while auto imports increased 2.3% (-6.1 y/y) after a 5.5% December drop. Petroleum imports by end-use fell 1.1% (-2.3% y/y) after a 4.6% rise. Nonpetroleum imports shot up 13.4% (28.4% y/y) following a 4.0% December rise.

The inflation-adjusted goods trade deficit (customs value) soared to $142.9 billion in January from $112.1 billion in December. Real exports rose 0.4% (-0.9% y/y) after a 3.9% decline in December while real imports rose 12.4% (24.4% y/y) in January following a 3.9% December rise.

The services trade surplus of $25.4 billion in January compared to $25.2 billion in December. Service exports edged up 0.6% (9.5% y/y) after the same increase in December. Monthly gains in service exports were led by a 3.7% rise (37.6% y/y) rise in exported construction services. Travel services exports gained 0.4% (10.8% y/y) and financial exports increased 1.4% (9.6% y/y). Service imports rose 0.6% (12.1% y/y) in January following a 1.6% gain in December. Monthly gains in service imports were widespread. Maintenance & repair services rose 2.4% (33.1% y/y) while imported transport services gained 0.2 (14.2% y/y). Imported travel services eased 0.7% (+12.4% y/y) while charges for use of intellectual property rose 3.1% (23.4% y/y).

The U.S. goods trade deficit with China deepened to a seasonally adjusted $29.7 billion in January from $25.3 billion in December. Exports to China fell 9.8% (-18.5% y/y) while imports increased 8.8% (11.5% y/y). The deficit with the European Union deepened to $25.5 billion in January from $20.4 billion in December, while the deficit with Japan expanded to $7.4 billion from $5.5 billion.

The international trade data, including relevant data on oil prices, can be found in Haver’s USECON database. Detailed figures on international trade are available in the USINT and USTRADE databases. The expectations figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in AS1REPNA.