U.S. New Home Sales Hit a Six-Month Low in July
Summary
- Sales -10.5% m/m (-6.3% y/y) to 607,000 in July; down 19.8% from a November high.
- Sales m/m down in the Midwest (-42.7%) and South (-13.0%); up in the Northeast (+30.3%) and West (+6.2%).
- Sales y/y plunging in the Midwest (-50.6%); surging in the Northeast (+95.5%).
- Median sales price -2.3% m/m to $393,800, a five-year low; avg. price +4.1% m/m to $508,800.
- Unsold inventory +1.9% m/m (-1.6% y/y) to 488,000, highest since Oct. '25.
- Months' supply up to 9.6 mths., a six-month high.
New single-family home sales fell 10.5% m/m (-6.3% y/y) to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 607,000 units in July, below expectations, following an upwardly revised 7.6% gain to 678,000 in June (initially +1.6%, 628,000) and an upwardly revised 1.7% decrease to 630,000 in May (previously -4.3%, 618,000), according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected July sales of 620,000. July marked the third m/m decline in four months and the lowest level since January, down 19.8% from a high of 757,000 in November 2025 but up 13.5% from a low of 535,000 in July 2022. The July fall coincided with a rise in the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate to 6.54%, the highest since August 2025, from 6.49% in June, according to Freddie Mac.
Regionally, July new home sales showed a mixed performance. Sales in the Midwest plunged 42.7% (-50.6% y/y) to 43,000 in July, the third m/m drop in four months and the lowest level since September 2012, after an 8.5% decrease to 75,000 in June. Sales in the South fell 13.0% (-5.2% y/y) to 383,000, down for the third time in four months, following a 15.2% June recovery to 440,000. To the upside, sales in the Northeast surged 30.3% (95.5% y/y) to 43,000, the fourth m/m gain in five months and the highest level since December 2025, following a 10.0% June increase to 33,000. Sales in the West rebounded 6.2% (2.2% y/y) to 138,000, the strongest reading since April, reversing a 4.4% June decline to 130,000. Notably, the South remained the dominant region, accounting for 63.1% of total U.S. new home sales.
The median sales price of a new home fell 2.3% (-0.9% y/y) to $393,800 in July, the lowest since July 2021, following a 3.2% decline to $403,100 in June and two consecutive m/m increases. The median sales price was 14.4% below its record high of $460,300 in October 2022 but 9.1% above a low of $361,100 in June 2021. The average sales price of a new home, up for the second time in three months, rose 4.1% (5.4% y/y) to $508,800 following a 7.3% June drop to $488,900 (the lowest since July 2025). The average price was 7.0% above a low of $475,600 in August 2024 but 6.0% below a peak of $541,200 in July 2022. These sales price data are not seasonally adjusted.
The number of unsold new homes on the market rebounded 1.9% (-1.6% y/y) to 488,000 in July, the third m/m increase in four months and the highest level since October 2025, after a 1.4% decline to 479,000 in June. The latest figure was 15.1% above a low of 424,000 in May 2023. The seasonally adjusted months' supply of new homes for sale rose to 9.6 months in July, the highest since January, from 8.5 months in June, remaining above a low of 6.9 months in May 2023 but below a high of 10.3 months in July 2022.
The median number of months a new home stayed on the market fell to 3.2 months in July, the lowest since January and the first m/m decline since August 2025, after registering at 3.5 months for four straight months. The latest reading was above its record low of 1.5 months in September and October 2022 but well below a peak of 5.1 months in March 2021. These figures date back to January 1975.
New home sales are recorded when the sales contract is signed. New home sales activity and prices are available in Haver's USECON database. The consensus expectation figure from Action Economics is available in the AS1REPNA database.
Winnie Tapasanun
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Winnie Tapasanun has been working for Haver Analytics since 2013. She has 20+ years of working in the financial services industry. As Vice President and Economic Analyst at Globicus International, Inc., a New York-based company specializing in macroeconomics and financial markets, Winnie oversaw the company’s business operations, managed financial and economic data, and wrote daily reports on macroeconomics and financial markets. Prior to working at Globicus, she was Investment Promotion Officer at the New York Office of the Thailand Board of Investment (BOI) where she wrote monthly reports on the U.S. economic outlook, wrote reports on the outlook of key U.S. industries, and assisted investors on doing business and investment in Thailand. Prior to joining the BOI, she was Adjunct Professor teaching International Political Economy/International Relations at the City College of New York. Prior to her teaching experience at the CCNY, Winnie successfully completed internships at the United Nations. Winnie holds an MA Degree from Long Island University, New York. She also did graduate studies at Columbia University in the City of New York and doctoral requirements at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York. Her areas of specialization are international political economy, macroeconomics, financial markets, political economy, international relations, and business development/business strategy. Her regional specialization includes, but not limited to, Southeast Asia and East Asia. Winnie is bilingual in English and Thai with competency in French. She loves to travel (~30 countries) to better understand each country’s unique economy, fascinating culture and people as well as the global economy as a whole.
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