U.S. Jobless Claims Remain Low in Latest Week
Summary
- Initial unemployment claims rise just 2,000 from prior week.
- Continuing claims have lowest 4-week average since January.
- Insured rate of unemployment still 1.1%, close to all-time low of 0.9%.
Initial claims for unemployment insurance edged up to 204,000 (+12.1% y/y) in the week ended September 23 from 202,000 the week before, which was revised marginally from 201,000 initially reported. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected 215,000 in the latest week. The four-week moving average through the September 23 week was 211,000, down from 217,250 the week before and the lowest since 207,250 in the four weeks ended February 11. These data are seasonally adjusted and reported by the Department of Labor, that is, the main Department of Labor, not the Bureau of Labor Statistics which compiles most employment statistics.
The total number of insured unemployment, also called “continued weeks claimed,” was 1.67 million in the week ended September 16, up from 1.658 million in the September 9 week. The September 9 number was revised from 1.662 million reported a week ago. The four-week moving average of insured unemployment was 1.674 million in the September 16 week, down from the prior week’s average of 1.686 million. The latest week had the smallest average since the end of January.
The insured rate of unemployment in the September 16 week remained at 1.1% for a fourth consecutive week; this is the number of continued weeks claimed as a percent of covered employment. As previously noted here, this is just slightly larger than the lowest rate of 0.9%, reached in August and September of 2022; the series dates back to 1971.
The total number of insured unemployment in all programs was 1.670 million in the week ended September 9, down marginally from 1.679 million in the September 2 week. This total is not seasonally adjusted. Its smallest amount was 1.222 million in the week ended October 8, 2022. The total includes federal employees, newly discharged veterans, extended benefits and other specialized programs. Claims in the discontinued Pandemic Unemployment Assistance program and Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation are no longer included in the main Labor Department press release.
Labor market conditions vary widely across the whole country, and so do insured rates of unemployment. In the week ended September 9, the highest rates were in New Jersey (2.33%), California (2.15%), New York (1.75%), Massachusetts (1.63%) and Rhode Island (1.62%). The lowest rates were in South Dakota (0.19%), North Dakota (0.28%), Kansas (0.32%), Virginia (0.36%) and New Hampshire (0.39%). Rates in other large states include Pennsylvania (1.42%), Illinois (1.37%), Texas 1.04%) and Florida (0.45%). These state data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment claims go back to 1967 and are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database; they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW back to December 1986. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, in the AS1REPNA database.
Carol Stone, CBE
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Carol Stone, CBE came to Haver Analytics in 2003 following more than 35 years as a financial market economist at major Wall Street financial institutions, most especially Merrill Lynch and Nomura Securities. She has broad experience in analysis and forecasting of flow-of-funds accounts, the federal budget and Federal Reserve operations. At Nomura Securites, among other duties, she developed various indicator forecasting tools and edited a daily global publication produced in London and New York for readers in Tokyo. At Haver Analytics, Carol is a member of the Research Department, aiding database managers with research and documentation efforts, as well as posting commentary on select economic reports. In addition, she conducts Ways-of-the-World, a blog on economic issues for an Episcopal-Church-affiliated website, The Geranium Farm. During her career, Carol served as an officer of the Money Marketeers and the Downtown Economists Club. She has a PhD from NYU's Stern School of Business. She lives in Brooklyn, New York, and has a weekend home on Long Island.
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