U.S. Jobless Claims Edge Down Again in Latest Week
Summary
- Initial claims inch lower for a third week.
- Insured unemployment rises, but very modestly.
- Insured unemployment rate remains in tight 1.1%-1.2% band.
Initial claims for unemployment insurance were 228.000 seasonally adjusted in the week ended August 26, down from 232,000 the week before; that prior week was revised from 230,000 initially reported. The four-week moving average was 237,500 in the latest week, up very slightly from 237,250 the prior week. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected 235,000 initial claims in the August 26 week.
In the week ended August 19, insured unemployment, also referred to as the number of continued weeks claimed, was 1.725 million, up from 1.697 million the week before; that earlier week’s total was revised from 1.702 million reported before.
The insured unemployment rate, that is, insured unemployment as a percentage of total covered employment, was 1.2% in the August 19 week. This is up from 1.1% the week before and extends the tight range of 1.1%-1.2% that has prevailed since mid-April.
In the week ended August 12, the total number of recipients in all insured unemployment programs was 1.828 million, not seasonally adjusted, down from 1.839 million in the August 5 week. This total reached a recent high of 2.000 million in late February. Besides the number of beneficiaries of regular state unemployment insurance benefits, the total includes federal employees, newly discharged veterans, extended benefits and other specialized programs. Covid-related benefit programs have expired and are no longer included in the Labor Department’s main press release.
The unemployment situation varies widely across the various states and territories. In the August 12 week, the highest state [and territory] rates were in New Jersey (2.52%), California (2.23%), Puerto Rico (2.19%), Rhode Island (2.05%) and Massachusetts (1.95%). The lowest rates were in South Dakota (0.22%), Virginia and Kansas (0.37), North Dakota and Kentucky (0.38%), Nebraska (0.44%) and Tennessee (0.46%). Other sizable states were New York (1.87%), Pennsylvania (1.79%), Illinois (1.53%) and Texas (1.11%). These state data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment claims go back to 1967 and are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database; they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW back to December 1986. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, in the AS1REPNA database.
Carol Stone, CBE
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Carol Stone, CBE came to Haver Analytics in 2003 following more than 35 years as a financial market economist at major Wall Street financial institutions, most especially Merrill Lynch and Nomura Securities. She has broad experience in analysis and forecasting of flow-of-funds accounts, the federal budget and Federal Reserve operations. At Nomura Securites, among other duties, she developed various indicator forecasting tools and edited a daily global publication produced in London and New York for readers in Tokyo. At Haver Analytics, Carol is a member of the Research Department, aiding database managers with research and documentation efforts, as well as posting commentary on select economic reports. In addition, she conducts Ways-of-the-World, a blog on economic issues for an Episcopal-Church-affiliated website, The Geranium Farm. During her career, Carol served as an officer of the Money Marketeers and the Downtown Economists Club. She has a PhD from NYU's Stern School of Business. She lives in Brooklyn, New York, and has a weekend home on Long Island.
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