U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Edge Up in Latest Week
Summary
- Initial claims edged up in the July 26 week after six consecutive declines.
- Continuing claims were unchanged in the July 19 week.
- Insured unemployment rate was unchanged for the eighth consecutive week.
Initial claims for unemployment insurance edged up by 1,000 to 218,000 (-12.1% y/y) in the week ended July 26, from the unrevised level of 217,000 (-8.1% y/y) in the week ended July 19. The small weekly rise is the first one following six consecutive weekly declines. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 222,000 initial claims for last week. The four-week moving average of initial claims declined by 3,500 to 221,000 from the previous week’s unrevised average of 224,500. It was the lowest level since the second week of April.
In the week ended July 19, the total number of unemployment insurance beneficiaries – also known as “continuing claims” – was 1.946 million (+3.8% y/y), unchanged from the prior week's level, which was revised down by 9,000. The four-week moving average was 1.949 million, a decline of 3,000 from 1.952 million, revised from 1.954 million.
In the week ending July 19, the insured rate of unemployment (the number of beneficiaries as a percent of covered employment) was unchanged at 1.3% for the eighth straight week. It had increased from 1.2% since the beginning of 2023 and 1.0% in November 2022.
The insured unemployment rate varied greatly across individual states and territories. In the week ended July 12, the highest unemployment rates were in New Jersey (2.76%), Puerto Rico (2.70%), Rhode Island (2.65%), Minnesota (2.21%), California (2.15%), Massachusetts (2.13%), and District of Colombia and Washington (both 2.08%). The lowest were in South Dakota (0.30%), Florida (0.39%), and North Carolina (0.47%). Rates in other notable states include Pennsylvania (1.89%), Illinois (1.78%), New York (1.74%), and Texas (1.29%). These state data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment claims are from the Department of Labor itself, not the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They begin in 1967 and are contained in Haver’s WEEKLY database and summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW back to December 1986. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in the AS1REPNA database.
Kathleen Stephansen, CBE
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Kathleen Stephansen is a Senior Economist for Haver Analytics and an Independent Trustee for the EQAT/VIP/1290 Trust Funds, encompassing the US mutual funds sponsored by the Equitable Life Insurance Company. She is a former Chief Economist of Huawei Technologies USA, Senior Economic Advisor to the Boston Consulting Group, Chief Economist of the American International Group (AIG) and AIG Asset Management’s Senior Strategist and Global Head of Sovereign Research. Prior to joining AIG in 2010, Kathleen held various positions as Chief Economist or Head of Global Research at Aladdin Capital Holdings, Credit Suisse and Donaldson, Lufkin and Jenrette Securities Corporation.
Kathleen serves on the boards of the Global Interdependence Center (GIC), as Vice-Chair of the GIC College of Central Bankers, is the Treasurer for Economists for Peace and Security (EPS) and is a former board member of the National Association of Business Economics (NABE). She is a member of Chatham House and the Economic Club of New York. She holds an undergraduate degree in economics from the Universite Catholique de Louvain and graduate degrees in economics from the University of New Hampshire (MA) and the London School of Economics (PhD abd).
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