U.S. Goods Trade Deficit Widens to $91.83 Billion in March
Summary
- Largest goods trade deficit since April ’23 and larger than expected.
- Exports drop 3.5% following three straight m/m rises.
- Imports decline 1.7%, the first m/m decrease since November.
The advance estimate of the U.S. international trade deficit in goods widened to $91.83 billion in March from $90.30 billion in February (revised from a $91.84 billion deficit initially reported on March 29), according to the U.S. Census Bureau. This was the third time in four months that the goods deficit had widened. The March deficit was the biggest since April 2023 and larger than a $81.91 billion shortfall in March 2023. A deficit of $91.0 billion for March had been expected by the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The deficit had reached a peak of $121.18 billion in March 2022. In Q1'24, the goods trade deficit widened to $272.70 billion, the largest since Q2'23, after rising to $264.19 billion in Q4'23. The goods trade deficit subtracted 0.68%-point to real GDP growth in Q1'24 after having added 0.31%-point in Q4'23.
Total exports fell 3.5% m/m (-2.1% y/y) in March, the first monthly fall since November, reversing a 2.9% gain in February. Exports had fallen 6.4% since a July 2022 high. The fall in exports in March reflected exports m/m drops of 9.4% (-1.9% y/y) in foods, feeds & beverages, 3.9% (-4.8% y/y) in industrial supplies & materials, 3.7% (+3.1% y/y) in capital goods excluding autos, and 1.8% (-5.1% y/y) in nonfood consumer goods excluding autos. Meanwhile, exports of automotive vehicles & parts were virtually unchanged (-2.2% y/y) in March after an 8.5% drop in February. To the upside, exports of other goods rose 2.4% (-4.1% y/y) in March following a 0.6% increase in February and two consecutive m/m declines.
Total imports decreased 1.7% m/m (+2.5% y/y) in March, the first monthly decline in four months, following a 1.8% increase in February. Imports had fallen 9.9% since a March 2022 high. The decrease in imports in March reflected imports m/m drops of 10.8% (+6.5% y/y) in automotive vehicles & parts, 3.6% (+5.1% y/y) in foods, feeds & beverages, 3.2% (-7.3% y/y) in industrial supplies & materials, 2.9% (-0.2% y/y) in other goods, and 0.4% (+6.9% y/y) in capital goods excluding autos. In contrast, imports of nonfood consumer goods excluding autos were the only end-use category with a monthly gain in March; they rose 4.7% (4.0% y/y), the third m/m rise in four months, on top of a 2.6% February rebound.
The advance international trade data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectation figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, which is in AS1REPNA.
Winnie Tapasanun
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Winnie Tapasanun has been working for Haver Analytics since 2013. She has ~20 years of working in the financial services industry. As Vice President and Economic Analyst at Globicus International, Inc., a New York-based company specializing in macroeconomics and financial markets, Winnie oversaw the company’s business operations, managed financial and economic data, and wrote daily reports on macroeconomics and financial markets. Prior to working at Globicus, she was Investment Promotion Officer at the New York Office of the Thailand Board of Investment (BOI) where she wrote monthly reports on the U.S. economic outlook, wrote reports on the outlook of key U.S. industries, and assisted investors on doing business and investment in Thailand. Prior to joining the BOI, she was Adjunct Professor teaching International Political Economy/International Relations at the City College of New York. Prior to her teaching experience at the CCNY, Winnie successfully completed internships at the United Nations. Winnie holds an MA Degree from Long Island University, New York. She also did graduate studies at Columbia University in the City of New York and doctoral requirements at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York. Her areas of specialization are international political economy, macroeconomics, financial markets, political economy, international relations, and business development/business strategy. Her regional specialization includes, but not limited to, Southeast Asia and East Asia. Winnie is bilingual in English and Thai with competency in French. She loves to travel (~30 countries) to better understand each country’s unique economy, fascinating culture and people as well as the global economy as a whole.
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