Haver Analytics
Haver Analytics
| Dec 27 2022

U.S. FHFA House Prices Unchanged in October


• FHFA HPI was unchanged in October following an unrevised slight +0.1% m/m increase in September after monthly declines in the preceding two months.

• House prices fell in five of the nine census divisions and rose in the other four.

• Largest decline in the Pacific region; largest increase in New England.

U.S. house prices were unchanged in October following an unrevised 0.1% m/m increase in September. Prices appear to have stabilized after falling in both July and August. Compared to a year ago, prices were up 9.8%, well off their peak of 19.3% reached in February. The aggressive rate hikes by the Federal Reserve have been reflected in markedly higher mortgage interest rates, which have taken their toll on the housing market.

For the nine census divisions, seasonally adjusted monthly house price changes from September to October ranged from -0.9% m/m in the Pacific division, the fifth monthly decline in the past six months, to +1.4% in the New England division following a 1.0% monthly drop in September. The 12-month changes were all positive, ranging from +4.5% in the Pacific division to +14.1% in the South Atlantic division. Annual rates of increase in every region are well off their highs that were generally reached early this year. However, for most regions, the annual gains are still considerably faster than they were in the seven years preceding the short 2020 recession induced by the COVID-related lockdown of the economy.

The FHFA house price index is a weighted purchase-only index that measures average price changes in repeat sales of the same property. An associated quarterly index includes refinancings on the same kinds of properties. The indexes are based on transactions involving conforming conventional mortgages purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Only mortgage transactions on single-family properties are included.

The FHFA data are available in Haver’s USECON database.

  • Sandy Batten has more than 30 years of experience analyzing industrial economies and financial markets and a wide range of experience across the financial services sector, government, and academia.   Before joining Haver Analytics, Sandy was a Vice President and Senior Economist at Citibank; Senior Credit Market Analyst at CDC Investment Management, Managing Director at Bear Stearns, and Executive Director at JPMorgan.   In 2008, Sandy was named the most accurate US forecaster by the National Association for Business Economics. He is a member of the New York Forecasters Club, NABE, and the American Economic Association.   Prior to his time in the financial services sector, Sandy was a Research Officer at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Senior Staff Economist on the President’s Council of Economic Advisors, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Economic Policy at the US Treasury, and Economist at the International Monetary Fund. Sandy has taught economics at St. Louis University, Denison University, and Muskingun College. He has published numerous peer-reviewed articles in a wide range of academic publications. He has a B.A. in economics from the University of Richmond and a M.A. and Ph.D. in economics from The Ohio State University.  

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