Haver Analytics
Haver Analytics
| Mar 28 2023

U.S. FHFA House Prices Rebound in January

  • FHFA HPI +0.2% m/m in Jan. after two straight monthly declines.
  • House prices rise m/m in five of nine census divisions.
  • House prices in the Pacific region post their first y/y drop since Feb. ’12.

U.S. house prices rose 0.2% m/m in January after unrevised declines of 0.1% in December and 0.1% in November, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index. The January reading was the first monthly gain since October. The year-on-year rate of increase decelerated to 5.3% in January from 6.7% in December; it was the smallest rate since May 2020 and down from a 19.3% peak in February 2022. In Q4'22, house prices grew 0.3% q/q after a 0.1% Q3 increase. The y/y rate decelerated to 8.4% in Q4, the slowest pace since Q3'20, from 12.4% in Q3.

The month-on-month increases in house prices occurred in January in five of the nine census divisions: New England (+2.0%), South Atlantic (+0.8%), Middle Atlantic (+0.5%), East North Central (+0.2%), and West North Central (+0.2%). In contrast, house prices fell m/m in the following regions: Pacific (-0.6%), East South Central (-0.5%), and Mountain (-0.3%). House prices in the West South Central region were virtually unchanged in January after a 0.4% decline in December.

Year-on-year house prices continued to rise in January, but the pace of advance decelerated (vs. December) in seven of the nine census divisions. These included Middle Atlantic (6.0% vs. 7.2%), East North Central (5.5% vs. 6.8%), West North Central (5.3% vs. 6.3%), South Atlantic (9.6% vs. 10.6%), East South Central (6.9% vs. 9.6%), West South Central (5.9% vs. 7.6%), and Mountain (1.4% vs. 3.4%). New England was an exception with its y/y rate accelerating to 7.1% in January from 5.3% in December, while house prices in the Pacific region fell 1.5%, their first year-on-year fall since February 2012, after a 0.7% December increase.

The FHFA house price index is a weighted purchase-only index that measures average price changes in repeat sales of the same property. An associated quarterly index includes refinancing the same kind of properties. The indexes are based on transactions involving conforming conventional mortgages purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Only mortgage transactions on single-family properties are included.

The FHFA data are available in Haver’s USECON database.

  • Winnie Tapasanun has been working for Haver Analytics since 2013. She has almost 20 years of working in the financial services industry. As Vice President and Economic Analyst at Globicus International, Inc., a New York-based company specializing in macroeconomics and financial markets, Winnie oversaw the company’s business operations, managed financial and economic data, and wrote daily reports on macroeconomics and financial markets. Prior to working at Globicus, she was Investment Promotion Officer at the New York Office of the Thailand Board of Investment (BOI) where she wrote monthly reports on the U.S. economic outlook, wrote reports on the outlook of key U.S. industries, and assisted investors on doing business and investment in Thailand. Prior to joining the BOI, she was Adjunct Professor teaching International Political Economy/International Relations at the City College of New York. Prior to her teaching experience at the CCNY, Winnie successfully completed internships at the United Nations.   Winnie holds an MA Degree from Long Island University, New York. She also did graduate studies at Columbia University in the City of New York and doctoral requirements at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York. Her areas of specialization are international political economy, macroeconomics, financial markets, political economy, international relations, and business development/business strategy. Her regional specialization includes, but not limited to, Southeast Asia and East Asia.   A bilingual (English and Thai) with competency in French, Winnie loves to travel (almost 30 countries) to better understand each country’s unique economy, fascinating culture and people as well as the global economy as a whole.

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