U.S. Durable Goods Orders Rise in March, Led by a Jump in Defense Aircraft Orders

New orders for durable goods rose a stronger-than-expected 0.8% m/m in March, the first monthly rise since November, after declines of 1.2% in February (-1.4% initially) and 0.4% in January (-0.5% previously), according to today’s advance report by the U.S. Census Bureau. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected a 0.5% m/m March increase. The year-on-year rate decelerated to 0.8% in March, the lowest since December 2024 (-4.5%), from 7.6% in February, though remaining positive since January 2025. Durable goods orders excluding the transportation sector rose 0.9% (7.6% y/y) in March, the 11th consecutive m/m rise, after a 1.2% gain in February. Durable goods orders excluding defense, however, fell 0.3% (-1.8% y/y), the third m/m fall in four months, following a 1.2% February drop.

The m/m rise in March durable goods orders was driven by a 16.9% m/m jump in orders for defense aircraft & parts, the fourth gain in five months, following a 0.5% increase in February and a 26.9% slump in January. Orders for nondefense aircraft & parts dropped 21.1%, adding to a 33.3% February plunge and a 1.7% January decline. Orders excluding aircraft climbed 1.9% (9.2% y/y), the fourth straight m/m rise and the eighth in nine months, after a 1.8% February gain.

Durable goods orders for transportation rebounded 0.8% (-10.4% y/y) in March, the first m/m increase in four months, following a 5.6% drop in February. In addition to March’s m/m jump in defense aircraft orders and drop in nondefense aircraft orders, motor vehicles & parts orders rose 1.2% (7.9% y/y), the fourth successive m/m rise, after a 3.7% February gain. Orders for computers & electronic products jumped 3.7% (15.0% y/y), the largest of seven consecutive m/m increases, following a 1.3% February rise. Machinery orders grew 0.8% (10.4% y/y), the 11th straight m/m gain, on top of a 2.3% February advance. Orders for electrical equipment, appliances & components rose 0.7% (6.5% y/y), the first m/m rise in three months, reversing a 0.7% February decline. Orders for primary metals grew 0.4% (10.2% y/y), the fourth consecutive m/m increase, after a 2.4% February gain. Orders for all other durable goods rose 0.3% (1.2% y/y), up for the seventh straight month, after a 0.5% February rise. Orders for fabricated metal products rose 0.2% (7.2% y/y), the eighth m/m increase in nine months, following a 1.1% February gain.

Capital goods orders recovered 1.7% (-6.7% y/y) in March, the first m/m rise since November, after a 6.5% decrease in February. Nondefense capital goods orders slid 1.2% (-15.4% y/y), the sixth m/m slide in seven months, after a 7.9% February drop. Core capital goods orders (i.e., nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft) rose 3.3% (9.4% y/y), the eighth m/m gain in nine months, following a 1.6% February rise. Defense capital goods orders surged 18.0% (80.0% y/y) after a 2.3% February rebound. Notably, core capital goods shipments (core capex shipments)—a reliable coincident indicator of business spending on equipment in the national accounts—rose 1.2% (7.0% y/y), the sixth m/m rise in seven months, after a 1.3% increase in February.

Shipments of all manufactured goods rose 1.4% (5.5% y/y) in March, the fifth m/m rise in six months, after a 1.7% gain in February. Durable goods shipments increased 0.7% (7.6% y/y), up for the sixth time in seven months, after a 1.6% February rise. Nondurable goods shipments advanced 2.1% (3.4% y/y), the strongest of four consecutive m/m increases, after a 1.9% February gain.

Unfilled orders of durable goods edged up 0.1% (9.5% y/y) in March, the eighth straight m/m increase, after a 0.1% uptick in February. Excluding transportation, unfilled orders rose 0.3% (2.5% y/y), also up for the eighth consecutive month, following a 0.3% February rise.

Manufacturing inventories advanced 0.6% (1.3% y/y) in March, the largest of five successive m/m increases, after a 0.1% uptick in February. Durable goods inventories grew 0.2% (1.9% y/y) in March, the sixth consecutive m/m rise, following a 0.1% increase in February, while nondurable goods inventories climbed 1.3% (0.4% y/y) after inching up 0.1%.

Manufacturers’ orders and shipments of durable and nondurable goods, along with unfilled orders and inventories, are compiled by the U.S. Census Bureau. They are available in Haver’s USECON database. The Action Economics forecast data are in the AS1REPNA database.