U.S. Durable Goods Orders Rebound Less Than Expected in June
Summary
- June headline orders +0.3% m/m, third rise in four mths.; +7.4% y/y, positive since Jan. ’25 except for May (-3.0%).
- Nondefense aircraft & parts +3.7% m/m vs. May’s -51.1%; defense aircraft & parts -7.2% m/m, first drop since Jan.
- Transportation orders -0.2%, second consecutive m/m decline; orders ex transp. +0.6%, 14th straight m/m gain.
- Computers & electronic products +3.1%, ninth increase in 10 mths.
- Core capital goods shipments +1.9%, ninth gain in 10 mths., pointing to a moderate contribution to Q2’26 GDP from business equipt. spending.
- Durable goods shipments +0.7%; unfilled orders +0.6%; inventories +0.3%.
New orders for durable goods increased a weaker-than-expected 0.3% m/m in June, the third monthly gain in four months, following an upwardly revised 4.0% decline in May (-4.5% initially) and an 8.5% advance in April (unrevised), according to today’s advance report from the U.S. Census Bureau. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected a 2.1% m/m June increase. The year-on-year rate accelerated to +7.4% in June from -3.0% in May (+10.9% in June 2025), remaining positive since January 2025 except for May. Excluding transportation, durable goods orders rose 0.6% (11.0% y/y) in June, the 14th straight m/m rise, after a 1.8% increase in May. Durable goods orders excluding defense grew 0.3% (5.7% y/y) following a 4.3% May drop.
The m/m increase in June durable goods orders was driven by a 3.7% m/m rebound in orders for nondefense aircraft & parts, following a 51.1% plunge in May and a 167.4% surge in April. Orders for defense aircraft & parts fell 7.2% (+46.8% y/y), the first m/m decline since January, after gains of 8.9% in May and 2.4% in April. Orders excluding aircraft climbed 0.3% (11.0% y/y), the seventh consecutive m/m rise and the 11th in 12 months, on top of a 1.4% May increase.
Durable goods orders for transportation declined 0.2% (+1.1% y/y) in June following a 13.5% drop in May and two successive m/m gains. In addition to June’s m/m rebound in nondefense aircraft orders and decline in defense aircraft orders, motor vehicles & parts orders slid 0.6% (+10.3% y/y), the first m/m slide since November, after a 1.1% May increase. Orders for computers & electronic products advanced 3.1% (16.7% y/y), the ninth m/m gain in 10 months, building on a 1.2% May rebound. Orders for primary metals rose 1.1% (17.6% y/y), the seventh straight m/m increase, after a 4.2% May gain. Orders for electrical equipment, appliances & components rose 0.9% (6.7% y/y), the fourth consecutive m/m rise, following a 0.2% May increase. Orders for all other durable goods grew 0.2% (3.4% y/y), the 10th straight m/m gain, after a 0.7% May rise. Meanwhile, orders for fabricated metal products fell 0.5% (+10.6% y/y) in June after two successive m/m increases. Machinery orders dipped 0.1% (+14.4% y/y), the first m/m easing since February 2025, following a 2.8% May gain.
Capital goods orders rebounded 1.1% (3.8% y/y) in June, the third m/m rise in four months, following a 13.0% decrease in May. Nondefense capital goods orders rose 1.2% (-1.1% y/y), the second m/m gain in three months, after a 15.3% May drop. Core capital goods orders (i.e., nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft) rose 0.9% (12.5% y/y), the fourth m/m gain in five months, following a 1.9% May recovery. Defense capital goods orders increased 0.5% (31.6% y/y), up for the fourth time in five months, after a 1.6% May decline. Notably, core capital goods shipments (core capex shipments)—a reliable coincident indicator of business spending on equipment in the national accounts—rose 1.9% (9.3% y/y), the ninth m/m rise in 10 months, after a 0.2% May increase.
Shipments of all manufactured goods fell 0.3% (+8.0% y/y) in June, the first m/m fall since November, following a 1.6% gain in May. Durable goods shipments rose 0.7% (9.0% y/y), the seventh straight m/m rise, after a 1.1% May increase. Nondurable goods shipments declined 1.3% (+7.0% y/y), the first m/m decrease in seven months, following a 2.1% May gain.
Unfilled orders of durable goods increased 0.6% (8.2% y/y) in June after a 0.7% rise in May. Excluding transportation, unfilled orders rose 0.9% (5.3% y/y) following a 1.0% May advance. Both series posted the 11th consecutive m/m increase.
Manufacturing inventories edged up 0.1% (1.8% y/y) in June, the eighth successive m/m gain, after a 0.2% rise in May. Durable goods inventories grew 0.3% (2.2% y/y), the ninth straight m/m increase, after a 0.1% uptick in May. Nondurable goods inventories, however, fell 0.3% (+1.1% y/y), the first m/m decline since January, after rising 0.4% in May and April.
Manufacturers’ orders and shipments of durable and nondurable goods, along with unfilled orders and inventories, are compiled by the U.S. Census Bureau. They are available in Haver’s USECON database. The Action Economics forecast data are in the AS1REPNA database.
Winnie Tapasanun
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Winnie Tapasanun has been working for Haver Analytics since 2013. She has 20+ years of working in the financial services industry. As Vice President and Economic Analyst at Globicus International, Inc., a New York-based company specializing in macroeconomics and financial markets, Winnie oversaw the company’s business operations, managed financial and economic data, and wrote daily reports on macroeconomics and financial markets. Prior to working at Globicus, she was Investment Promotion Officer at the New York Office of the Thailand Board of Investment (BOI) where she wrote monthly reports on the U.S. economic outlook, wrote reports on the outlook of key U.S. industries, and assisted investors on doing business and investment in Thailand. Prior to joining the BOI, she was Adjunct Professor teaching International Political Economy/International Relations at the City College of New York. Prior to her teaching experience at the CCNY, Winnie successfully completed internships at the United Nations. Winnie holds an MA Degree from Long Island University, New York. She also did graduate studies at Columbia University in the City of New York and doctoral requirements at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York. Her areas of specialization are international political economy, macroeconomics, financial markets, political economy, international relations, and business development/business strategy. Her regional specialization includes, but not limited to, Southeast Asia and East Asia. Winnie is bilingual in English and Thai with competency in French. She loves to travel (~30 countries) to better understand each country’s unique economy, fascinating culture and people as well as the global economy as a whole.
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