Global| Jun 01 2023Asian PMIs Are Off Peak But Show Resilience
The Asian PMIs show somewhat mixed patterns over the last year and across the recent three months. In May alone the average manufacturing reading stepped back to 49.8 from 51.0, leaving May weaker than April or March. Manufacturing PMIs for this select group of Asian countries improved in only one-third of the estimates in May, compared to improvement for 50% of them in April and one third of them in March. None of these trends is particularly striking.
However, the three-month averages show that 44.4% of the countries experienced increased PMIs compared to the six-month average. Over six months 55.6% improved compared to the 12-month average. And 55.6% improved for the 12-month average compared to the year-ago 12-month average.
The unweighted standing for manufacturing overall is at its 43rd percentile with five of the reporting countries having readings below their respective 50th percentiles. That means they lie below their medians for the period. Thailand has the strongest standing with a 96.2 percentile reading, while Myanmar has a reading at its 84.9 percentile. For the most part, the manufacturing percentile standings are moderate to low.
There are few services observations; China and Japan present services/nonmanufacturing observations. The Japanese figures here are still preliminary. Still, services from 12-months to six-months to three-months are trending stronger there. Across the individual recent three months, the Japanese services sector has remained firm. China’s nonmanufacturing readings weaken over the recent three months.
May is a showing of mixed performance in Asia for services. Japan shows weakening PMI services data from 12-months to three-months with a small bounce in between, while China shows slight strengthening over those same horizons for nonmanufacturing. Neither country, however, shows markedly strong moves in either direction.
The bottom line is that Asia seems to be listless for both manufacturing and services, without strong momentum. Percentile standings indicate that weak levels accompany the meandering momentum trends in manufacturing. PMI readings with few exceptions are weak compared to where the various PMI levels have been since January 2019. Services tell a different story of relative firmness enduring.
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
