Global| Nov 16 2018State Labor Markets in October
|in:Viewpoints
Summary
State labor markets were noticeably stronger in October than September. Nine states were reported to have had statistically significant increases in payroll employment, although the gains in the Carolinas doubtlessly reflected in [...]
State labor markets were noticeably stronger in October than September. Nine states were reported to have had statistically significant increases in payroll employment, although the gains in the Carolinas doubtlessly reflected in large part rebounds from Florence. A number of states reported declines in the point estimates of jobs, though none, not even Wisconsin’s drop of 3,500, were considered to be statistically significant. On the flip side, seemingly large increases in New York—22,000—and Pennsylvania—18,500—were not viewed as statistically different from zero (New Jersey’s 17,400 gain, though, was viewed as significant. The state that John Nash called home is better at math than its neighbors). The sum of the state figures shows a whopping gain of more than 300,000, compared to the national survey’s figure of 250,000.
The convergence story continues to hold. Vermont was the only state to see job losses over the last 12 months; Alaska has now joined the growth club, while forty-two states report gains between 1.1% and 3.0% over the year (Illinois is the only very large state to have seen growth less than 1.1%, and its increase rounds up to 1.0%). The largest gain was Nevada’s 3.4%; less than some of the more outsized numbers earlier seen. Again, the gaps in unemployment rates across states are narrowing. Alaska is still farthest north in this as well as latitude; likewise, Hawaii on the other side. But Alaska’s rate edged down to 6.4% in October, while Hawaii bumped up to 2.3%. In the lower 48 states, the gap between Iowa (2.4%) and West Virginia (5.2%) does not appear to be extreme, as these things go (the unemployment rate in the District of Columbia was 5.6% in October).
Puerto Rico continues to struggle. Nonfarm payroll employment on the island edged down 300 in October. The 12-month figure was up 2.0%, but, of course, the comparison month was one in the immediate wake of Maria. The unemployment rate did fall noticeably, from 8.4% to 8.0% (this would seem to be the lowest rate in at least 40 years), however, October’s drop reflected a marked decline in the labor force—the household employment figure fell.
Charles Steindel
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Charles Steindel has been editor of Business Economics, the journal of the National Association for Business Economics, since 2016. From 2014 to 2021 he was Resident Scholar at the Anisfield School of Business, Ramapo College of New Jersey. From 2010 to 2014 he was the first Chief Economist of the New Jersey Department of the Treasury, with responsibilities for economic and revenue projections and analysis of state economic policy. He came to the Treasury after a long career at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, where he played a major role in forecasting and policy advice and rose to the rank of Senior Vice-President. He has served in leadership positions in a number of professional organizations. In 2011 he received the William F. Butler Award from the New York Association for Business Economics, is a fellow of NABE and of the Money Marketeers of New York University, and has received several awards for articles published in Business Economics. In 2017 he delivered Ramapo College's Sebastian J. Raciti Memorial Lecture. He is a member of the panel for the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Survey of Professional Forecasters and of the Committee on Research in Income and Wealth. He has published papers in a range of areas, and is the author of Economic Indicators for Professionals: Putting the Statistics into Perspective. He received his bachelor's degree from Emory University, his Ph.D. from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and is a National Association for Business Economics Certified Business EconomistTM.