Global| May 23 2019State Coincident Indexes
|in:Viewpoints
Summary
The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank's estimates of state coincident activity again show that growth is less intensely centered in the West. Over the 12 months ending in March, Nevada is once again the leader, with a striking 5.4% [...]
The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank's estimates of state coincident activity again show that growth is less intensely centered in the West. Over the 12 months ending in March, Nevada is once again the leader, with a striking 5.4% rise, but West Virginia, with a 5.2% gain, was not far behind, and one large eastern state (Massachusetts) was third. Thirty states—including those with the four largest economies (California, Texas, New York, and Florida)—saw gains between 2 and 4%, roughly within one point of the national increase of 3.1%. Once again, Hawaii was the only state to see a decline, while Louisiana was the only other state with an increase of less than 1 percent.
Nevada was also the top-growing state over the 3 months ending in April, with an increase of 1.9%, though Vermont was virtually equal at 1.8% (before rounding the two were even closer). Fourteen states report gains above 1%, which is a hefty increase in such a short time span. None of the big 4, though, was in this group (Pennsylvania was the largest member). Hawaii, Kansas, Michigan, and Minnesota saw declines in their indexes over this period. Twenty states, including the four largest, had gains in the rand of .5 to 1 percent, which arguable correspondes to reasonably steady growth.
West Virginia's remarkable March-April increase of 1% led the nation, followed by Nevada's .9%. increase. Six states had declines, none appearing to be of any marked degree (Michigan's -.2% was the lowest).
In sum, the Philadelphia Fed measures show growth is widespread across the nation. The indexes are largely reflective of the data on state payrolls, average manufacturing hours, unemployment rates, and real wages and salaries. The long-term trend of a state's index is set to match that of its real GDP.
Charles Steindel
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Charles Steindel has been editor of Business Economics, the journal of the National Association for Business Economics, since 2016. From 2014 to 2021 he was Resident Scholar at the Anisfield School of Business, Ramapo College of New Jersey. From 2010 to 2014 he was the first Chief Economist of the New Jersey Department of the Treasury, with responsibilities for economic and revenue projections and analysis of state economic policy. He came to the Treasury after a long career at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, where he played a major role in forecasting and policy advice and rose to the rank of Senior Vice-President. He has served in leadership positions in a number of professional organizations. In 2011 he received the William F. Butler Award from the New York Association for Business Economics, is a fellow of NABE and of the Money Marketeers of New York University, and has received several awards for articles published in Business Economics. In 2017 he delivered Ramapo College's Sebastian J. Raciti Memorial Lecture. He is a member of the panel for the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Survey of Professional Forecasters and of the Committee on Research in Income and Wealth. He has published papers in a range of areas, and is the author of Economic Indicators for Professionals: Putting the Statistics into Perspective. He received his bachelor's degree from Emory University, his Ph.D. from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and is a National Association for Business Economics Certified Business EconomistTM.