Global| Aug 20 2009UK Retail Sales Stir
Summary
The 0.4% rise in real UK retail sales is the largest increase in fourteen months. Retail sales ex autos also rose by 0.4% and put in its second month-in-row increase. The momentum in real retail sales is positive, having recovered [...]
The 0.4% rise in real UK retail sales is the largest increase
in fourteen months. Retail sales ex autos also rose by 0.4% and put in
its second month-in-row increase.
The momentum in real retail sales is positive, having
recovered from some very deep lows reached just after mid-year in 2008.
In contrast this global business cycle hit the US consumer most
strongly at the end of 2008 and in early 2009.
UK food and beverage purchases have been a mainstay of growth
over the past year. But spending in this category fell in July.
Clothing and foot wear expenditures have run hot and cold and these
took a small decline in July as well. The strength in retail sales came
from other sectors in July.
In the quarter to date real ex-auto retail sales are growing at a robust 6.4% annual rate. The new quarter is only one month old but it is off to a very good start for UK retailers.
| UK Real and Nominal Retail Sales | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nominal | Jul-09 | Jun-09 | May-09 | 3-MO | 6-MO | 12-MO | Yr AGo | Quarter-2-date |
| Retail Total | 0.5% | 0.7% | -0.5% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 5.1% |
| Food Bev & Tobacco | -0.4% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 3.0% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 1.2% |
| Clothing footwear | -0.1% | 3.2% | -2.2% | 3.3% | -1.4% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 7.8% |
| Real | ||||||||
| Retail Ex auto | 0.4% | 1.4% | -0.9% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 3.3% | 1.1% | 6.4% |
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
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