Global| Dec 17 2008UK Retail Sales Plummet
Summary
Our series on UK retail sales goes back to 1986. On that basis the current retail sales metrics are largely at their lowest for the entire series across measures except for inventories. Inventory-to-sales ratios are high, in the top [...]
Our series on UK retail sales goes back to 1986. On that basis
the current retail sales metrics are largely at their lowest for the
entire series across measures except for inventories.
Inventory-to-sales ratios are high, in the top 25% of their range for
the period. At -55 in December the retail survey plunged from an
already weak reading of -46 in November. Orders have plunged to a
reading of-58 from -46 in November. Sales for the ‘time of year’ at -50
are much worse in December than they were in November at -42.
Expected sales are weak as well. This is not just a
flash-in-the-pan bad December. Expected sales are at a reading of -49
for January compared to a -40 for December. Expected orders are a weak
-48 in January compared to -41 in December, and so on.
The net readings that ultimate have been posted for December
are a sharp deterioration from December’s expectations. Since December
turned out to be much worse than expectations for it, what of January?
January already has poor expectation set. After September and October
sales were better than what had been expected November and December
have been substantially worse. If this string continues it will be a
dismal January, indeed.
| UK Retail volume data CBI Survey | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reported: | Jan-09 | Dec-08 | Nov-08 | Oct-08 | 12MO Avg | Pcntle | Max | Min | Range |
| Sales/Yr Ago | -55 | -46 | -27 | -24 | 0% | 66 | -55 | 121 | |
| Orders/Yr Ago | -58 | -46 | -36 | -29 | 0% | 48 | -58 | 106 | |
| Sales: Time/Yr | -50 | -42 | -35 | -31 | 0% | 41 | -50 | 91 | |
| Stocks:Sales | 23 | 19 | 17 | 18 | 77% | 30 | 0 | 30 | |
| Expected: | Jan-09 | ||||||||
| Sales/Yr Ago | -49 | -40 | -25 | -30 | -19 | 0% | 67 | -49 | 116 |
| Orders/Yr Ago | -48 | -41 | -30 | -39 | -22 | 0% | 47 | -48 | 95 |
| Sales: Time/Yr | -51 | -38 | -31 | -44 | -27 | 0% | 45 | -51 | 96 |
| Stocks:Sales | 20 | 17 | 12 | 18 | 15 | 74% | 26 | 3 | 23 |
| Since Sept 1986 | |||||||||
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
