Global| Mar 19 2009UK Orders Decline To New Low But Pace Of Decline Slows... Sort Of
Summary
The UK CBI survey for industry shows a new low at -58. Exports also are on a new low despite the weakness in sterling that should aid competitiveness. New orders slipped to -58 in March from -56 in February. The outlook index [...]
The UK CBI survey for industry shows a new low at -58. Exports also are on a new low despite the weakness in sterling that should aid competitiveness.
New orders slipped to -58 in March from -56 in February. The outlook index continues to slide. At -48 it is on a new low as well. The outlook for the volume of output three-months ahead has slipped by 6 points since November while orders have slipped much more, by 20 points. Still both readings are on at their lows since 2000.
The six month changes (declines) seem to have slowed down for as orders are dropping at a slower pace. The three-month change in orders has been cycling and is well off it lows. Only the Yr/Yr measure of declines continues to move relentlessly lower, indicating deeper declines. All of this is consistent with the notion that the UK is going to leave the most severe part of its downturn behind it. It is not yet certain, but the data are consistent with such a transition in the phase of the UK cycle.
| UK Industrial volume data CBI Survey | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reported: | Mar-09 | Feb-09 | Jan-09 | Dec-08 | Nov-08 | 12MO Avg | Pcntle | Max | Min | Range |
| Total Orders | -58 | -56 | -48 | -35 | -38 | -20 | 0% | 9 | -56 | 65 |
| Export Orders | -51 | -49 | -39 | -33 | -31 | -18 | 0% | 3 | -49 | 52 |
| Stocks: FinGds | 31 | 27 | 27 | 21 | 25 | 18 | 100% | 27 | -2 | 29 |
| Looking ahead | ||||||||||
| Output Volume :Nxt 3M | -48 | -44 | -43 | -42 | -42 | -16 | 0% | 28 | -44 | 72 |
| Avg Prices 4Nxt 3m | -13 | -12 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 18 | 13% | 34 | -19 | 53 |
| From end 2000 | ||||||||||
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
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