Global| Oct 31 2007UK Consumer Confidence Stays in a Downdraft
Summary
UK consumer confidence fell in October after dropping sharply in September. The index now resides in the lower 15 percentile of its range - a very poor standing. But the index is not without its paradoxes. Consumers rate their [...]
UK consumer confidence fell in October after dropping sharply in September. The index now resides in the lower 15 percentile of its range - a very poor standing. But the index is not without its paradoxes. Consumers rate their financial situation as the best ever, at the top of its range of responses. But the environment for making major purchases is rated as the worst ever (going back to January 1996).
Over the last 12 months the household financial situation was rated at zero, which garners a percentile standing of 75% - top 25 percentile of its range. But the general economic condition is only rated in the bottom 30%.
Over the next 12 months the financial situation is put at +13 which is a top 15% of range standing. But again the general economic situation is rated much lower, in its 46th percentile below the neutral mark of 50%.
As to income levels the bottom income group and the top group each rate conditions in the bottom 20 percentile of range or worse.
Consumers in the UK are having some fickle moments. But for the most part their assessment of the economy and the period ahead is that the times that lie ahead will not be so good.
| GFK Consumer Survey | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % of 2Yr | % of 10Yr | |||||
| Oct-07 | Sep-07 | Aug-07 | Jul-07 | Range | Range | |
| Consumer Confidence | -8 | -7 | -4 | -6 | 14.3% | 16.7% |
| Current | ||||||
| Household Fin Sit | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Major Purchases | -5 | -3 | 4 | -2 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Last 12 Months | ||||||
| Household Fin Sit | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 75.0% | 70.0% |
| General Econ Sit | -30 | -29 | -25 | -25 | 29.4% | 29.2% |
| CPI | 69 | 64 | 62 | 66 | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Savings | 38 | 38 | 42 | 42 | 81.0% | 93.1% |
| Next 12-months | ||||||
| Household Fin Sit | 13 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 85.7% | 85.7% |
| General Econ Sit | -17 | -19 | -15 | -13 | 46.2% | 56.7% |
| Unemployment | 29 | 27 | 29 | 27 | 28.6% | 58.3% |
| Major Purchases | -18 | -20 | -18 | -21 | 62.5% | 29.4% |
| Savings | 19 | 17 | 20 | 17 | 63.6% | 85.2% |
| By Income | ||||||
| Lower | -14 | -13 | -11 | -8 | 20.0% | 12.5% |
| Upper | -3 | -1 | 1 | 0 | 10.0% | 9.1% |
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
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