Global| May 10 2016U.S. Wholesale Inventories Remain Little Changed
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Inventories at the wholesale level nudged 0.1% higher (0.2% y/y) during March following a 0.6% decline in February, revised from -0.5%. Nondurable goods sector inventories rose 0.5% (4.6% y/y) as petroleum inventories increased 3.3% [...]
Inventories at the wholesale level nudged 0.1% higher (0.2% y/y) during March following a 0.6% decline in February, revised from -0.5%. Nondurable goods sector inventories rose 0.5% (4.6% y/y) as petroleum inventories increased 3.3% (-3.8% y/y). Farm-product inventories gained 1.3% (-4.1% y/y) while apparel inventories improved 0.2% (9.3% y/y). In the durable goods area, inventories eased 0.1% (-0.2% y/y) as electrical equipment inventories fell 1.6% (-6.3% y/y). Motor vehicle inventories increased 1.0% (6.7% y/y). Furniture & home furnishing inventories gained 0.3% (4.8% y/y), but electrical product inventories declined 1.6% (-6.3% y/y).
Wholesale sector sales increased 0.7% (0.8% y/y) following four months of decline. Nondurable goods sales recovered 1.6% (-0.7% y/y) as petroleum & petroleum product sales jumped 13.5% (-23.6% y/y) with higher prices. Paper product sales eased 0.1% (+7.2% y/y), but apparel sales declined 5.9% (-2.8% y/y). Durable goods sales slipped 0.2% (+2.4% y/y) as motor vehicle sales fell 0.7% (+0.9% y/y). Furniture & home furnishings sales improved 0.6% (7.6% y/y). Electrical equipment sales increased 1.3% (6.5% y/y), but machinery sales were little changed (0.7% y/y).
The wholesale trade inventory-to-sales ratio remained at 1.36, near the highest level of the economic expansion. The nondurable I/S ratio eased to a near-record 1.05 as the petroleum ratio fell to 0.52. The ratio in the apparel sector jumped to a record 2.32, but the chemicals ratio fell to a still high 1.24. The I/S ratio in the durable goods sector held at a lessened 1.68. The 3.04 machinery ratio was steady, but the ratio in electrical goods fell to 0.97. The ratio of 1.83 in the auto sector was the highest of the economic expansion.
The wholesale trade figures are available in Haver's USECON database.
| Wholesale Sector - NAICS Classification (%) | Mar | Feb | Jan | Y/Y | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inventories | 0.1 | -0.6 | -0.2 | 0.2 | 1.8 | 6.4 | 3.8 |
| Sales | 0.7 | -0.2 | -1.9 | 0.8 | -4.3 | 3.6 | 3.0 |
| I/S Ratio | 1.36 | 1.36 | 1.37 | 1.32 (Mar. '15) | 1.30 | 1.20 | 1.18 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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