Global| Mar 06 2008U.S. Weekly Jobless Insurance Claims Fell
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell 24,900 to 351,000 last week. The decline reversed all of the 21,000 increase during the prior week which was revised to show a slightly stronger rise. During February claims averaged [...]
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell 24,900 to 351,000 last week. The decline reversed all of the 21,000 increase during the prior week which was revised to show a slightly stronger rise. During February claims averaged 359,000 (+6.3% y/y) per week, up 9.8% from the January average.
A claims level below 400,000 typically has been associated with growth in nonfarm payrolls. During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 76% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payroll employment.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance continued their recent rise. A 29,000 increase during the latest week followed a 16,000 gain during the prior period which was revised down slightly. Insured unemployment stood at its highest level since Summer 2005. The figure provides some indication of workers' ability to find employment.
The continuing claims numbers lag the initial claims figures by one week.
The insured rate of unemployment remained at 2.1% for the fifth consecutive week.
The latest Beige Book from the Federal Reserve covering regional economic conditions can be found here.
An Expanded Look at Employment from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis is available here.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 03/01/08 | 02/23/08 | Y/Y | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 351 | 375 | 7.3% | 322 | 313 | 331 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,831 | 12.3% | 2,551 | 2,459 | 2,662 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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