Global| Feb 10 2005U.S. Trade Deficit Improved in December, 2004 A Record
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The U.S. foreign trade deficit improved in December to $56.4B versus a lessened deficit of $59.3B in November. The record deficit of $617.7B in 2004 was nearly one quarter larger than in 2003. Consensus expectations had been for a [...]
The U.S. foreign trade deficit improved in December to $56.4B versus a lessened deficit of $59.3B in November. The record deficit of $617.7B in 2004 was nearly one quarter larger than in 2003. Consensus expectations had been for a December deficit of $57.0B.
Total exports rebounded 3.2% in December. Goods exports rose 4.4% (13.6% y/y) following a 1.7% decline in November that was revised from -3.8%, reflecting a restatement of exports to Canada. Capital goods exports jumped 5.8% (10.5% y/y). Nonauto consumer goods exports surged 7.1% (19.9% y/y) and automotive exports rose 3.7% (13.0% y/y).
Services exports inched 0.3% higher (5.9% y/y).
Total imports rose just 0.1% in December but the annual gain of 16.3% was the strongest since 2000. Imports of non-petroleum goods rose 1.8% (+15.4% y/y) while imports of petroleum fell 9.8% (43.3% y/y). The average price of crude oil fell to $36.63 per bbl. versus $41.15 in November.
The US trade deficit with China improved to $14.3B but for the year deepened to $162.0B versus $124.1B in 2003. The US trade deficit with Japan deepened to $75.2B last year versus $66.0B in 2003 and the deficit with the Asian NICs deepened just slightly to $21.9B from $21.2B in 2003. The US trade deficit with the European Union deepened to $110.0B versus $97.9B in 2003.
After the Financial Crisis: Can Rapid Credit Expansion Sustain Growth? from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco can be found here.
| Foreign Trade | Dec | Nov | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trade Deficit | $56.4B | $59.3B | $44.0B (12/04) | $617.7B | $496.5B | $421.7B |
| Exports - Goods & Services | 3.2% | -0.9% | 11.2% | 12.3% | 4.6% | -3.1% |
| Imports - Goods & Services | 0.1% | 1.6% | 16.8% | 16.3% | 8.5% | 2.1% |
by Tom Moeller February 10, 2005
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell another 13,000 to 303,000 last week, the lowest level since late 2000. Consensus expectations had been for 325,000 claims.
The four week moving average of initial claims fell to 315,500 (-12.8% y/y).
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 82% correlation between the level of initial claims and the y/y change in payroll employment.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose 47,000 following a deepened 121,000 drop the prior week.
The insured rate of unemployment ticked up to 2.2%.
The hard hat blues from the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis is available here.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 02/05/05 | 01/29/05 | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 303 | 316 | -19.8% | 343 | 402 | 404 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,737 | -13.1% | 2,926 | 3,531 | 3,570 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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