Global| Nov 14 2013U.S. Trade Deficit Deepens; Shortfall with China Sets Record
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The U.S. foreign trade deficit increased sharply to $41.8 billion in September compared to a little-revised $38.7 billion during August. The latest figure was the deepest since May. A $39.0 billion deficit had been expected in the [...]
The U.S. foreign trade deficit increased sharply to $41.8 billion in September compared to a little-revised $38.7 billion during August. The latest figure was the deepest since May. A $39.0 billion deficit had been expected in the Action Economics survey. Exports slipped 0.2% (+1.1% y/y) following little change during August. Imports jumped 1.2% (1.0% y/y) after no change in August. In chained 2009 dollars, the deficit in goods also deteriorated sharply to $50.4 billion, the deepest since May. Real exports fell 0.7% (+1.2% y/y) while real imports gained 1.3% (1.9% y/y).
By country, the September trade deficit in goods with mainland China reached a record $30.5 billion. Exports to China rose 9.5% y/y while U.S. imports gained 5.8% y/y. With Japan, the deficit improved to $5.5 billion. U.S. exports fell 9.2% y/y and imports ticked up 0.7% y/y. The deficit with the European Union declined to $8.0 billion. U.S. exports increased 6.8% y/y while imports rose 4.8% y/y.
The total real value of U.S. nonauto consumer goods exports fell 1.3% (+2.5% y/y) while real capital goods exports were off 0.3% (-0.8% y/y). The constant dollar value of auto exports slipped 0.1% (+10.1% y/y). Exports of foods, feeds & beverages jumped 13.1% (-1.8% y/y). Services exports declined 0.3% (5.0% y/y). Travel exports were off 2.2% (+6.0% y/y). Passenger fares declined 2.1% (+4.0% y/y).
The value of U.S. petroleum imports gained 2.7% (-4.0% y/y) but the quantity of petroleum product imports was off 4.4% (-5.4% y/y). The price of crude oil increased further m/m to $102.00 yet remained down from the $109.69 high reached last year. Real imports less petroleum gained 1.2% in September (3.4% y/y). In constant dollars, imports of automotive vehicles jumped 3.3% (12.6% y/y) while real capital goods imports gained 1.7% (4.5% y/y). Nonauto consumer goods imports rose 1.5% (0.3% y/y) but imports of foods, feeds & beverages were off 1.1% (+2.2% y/y). Services imports slipped 0.3% (+1.5% y/y). Travel imports declined 2.0% (+3.3% y/y) but passenger fares gained 0.5% (5.2% y/y).
The international trade data can be found in Haver's USECON database. Detailed figures are available in the USINT database. The expectations figures are from the Action Economics consensus survey, which is carried in the AS1REPNA.
| Foreign Trade (Current Dollars) | Sep | Aug | Jul | Y/Y | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Trade Deficit | $-41.8 | $-38.7B | $38.6B | $41.6B (9/12) |
$534.7B | $556.8B | $499.4B |
| Exports (%) | -0.2 | -0.0 | -0.6 | 1.1 | 4.6 | 14.5 | 16.9 |
| Imports | 1.2 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 2.8 | 13.9 | 19.5 |
| Petroleum | 2.7 | -0.9 | 7.2 | -4.0 | -5.6 | 30.7 | 32.5 |
| Nonpetroleum goods | 1.3 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 2.1 | 5.2 | 12.1 | 20.8 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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