Global| Apr 12 2011U.S. Small Business Optimism Moves Lower
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The National Federation of Independent Business indicated that its index of small business optimism fell to 91.9 in March from an unrevised 94.5 in February. The latest was the lowest level since October. Deterioration amongst the [...]
The National Federation of Independent Business indicated that its index of small business optimism fell to 91.9 in March from an unrevised 94.5 in February. The latest was the lowest level since October. Deterioration amongst the sub-series was widespread. The percentage of firms expecting the economy to improve turned negative, falling to its lowest since September. Firms expecting higher real sales in six months also fell sharply.
The number of firms with job openings now remained constant at its highest since September 2008 but the percentage of firms planning to add jobs fell sharply. The credit crunch seemed, however, to ease as firms indicating that credit was harder to get fell to its lowest since June 2008. The percentage of firms planning as well as currently raising prices increased further to the highest since late-2008.
Businesses planning a capital expenditure during the next six months rose slightly and the percentage with few or no qualified job applicants for job openings slipped.
The most important problems faced by small business were poor sales (25%), government requirements (17%), taxes (17%), inflation (8%), insurance cost and availability (7%), quality of labor (6%), competition from large businesses (6%), and financial & interest rates (4%).
Roughly 24 million small businesses exist in the U.S. and they create 80% of all new jobs. The NFIB figures can be found in Haver's SURVEYS database.
The Big Impact of Small Business from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta is available here.
| Nat'l Federation of Independent Business | Mar | Feb | Jan | Mar'10 | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Small Business Optimism Index (SA,1986=100) | 91.9 | 94.5 | 94.1 | 86.8 | 89.9 | 86.7 | 89.8 |
| Firms Expecting Higher Real Sales In Six Months (Net %) | 6 | 14 | 13 | -3 | 1 | -11 | -7 |
| Firms Expecting Economy To Improve (Net %) | -5 | 9 | 10 | -8 | -1 | -0 | -10 |
| Firms With One or More Job Openings (Net %) | 15 | 15 | 13 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 18 |
| Firms Reporting That Credit Was Harder To Get (Net %) | 8 | 11 | 10 | 15 | 13 | 14 | 9 |
| Firms Raising Avg. Selling Prices (Net %) | 9 | 5 | -4 | -20 | -12 | -20 | 17 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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