Global| Apr 16 2018U.S. Retail Sales Strengthen
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Total retail sales increased 0.6% (4.5% y/y) during March following an unrevised 0.1% slip in February. The gain was the first in four months. A 0.4% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Excluding motor [...]
Total retail sales increased 0.6% (4.5% y/y) during March following an unrevised 0.1% slip in February. The gain was the first in four months. A 0.4% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Excluding motor vehicles and parts, retail sales improved an expected 0.2% (4.5% y/y) following an unrevised 0.2% rise.
Sales of discretionary items were mixed last month. Sales of motor vehicles & parts increased 2.0% (4.5% y/y) following four consecutive months of decline. The rise compared to a 4.5% increase in unit auto sales reported earlier this month. Sales of nonstore retailers improved 0.8% (9.7% y/y) after a 0.9% gain. Sales at furniture & home furnishing stores rose 0.7% (3.9% y/y) after a 0.4% rise. Electronics appliance store sales rose 0.5% (1.0% y/y) following a 1.0% fall. General merchandise store sales improved 0.3% (3.2% y/y) following a 0.4% gain. Countering these increases was a 0.6% decline (+5.3% y/y) in building materials & garden equipment store sales after a 2.0% rise. Sporting goods, hobby, book & music store purchases fell 1.8% (-3.3% y/y) following a 3.3% increase. Clothing & accessory store sales were off 0.8% (+1.8% y/y) following two months of improvement.
Gasoline service station sales eased 0.3% (+9.7 y/y) following a 0.1% uptick.
Sales of nondiscretionary items strengthened last month. Health & personal care store sales increased 1.4% (0.8% y/y) after four straight months of decline. Food & beverage store sales improved 0.2% (3.0% y/y), the same as in February.
Food service & drinking establishment sales improved 0.4% (3.1% y/y) for the second straight month.
The retail sales data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics forecast is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Retail Spending (% chg) | Mar | Feb | Jan | Mar Y/Y | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Retail Sales & Food Services | 0.6 | -0.1 | -0.2 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 3.2 | 2.6 |
| Excluding Autos | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 1.4 |
| Non-Auto Less Gasoline | 0.3 | 0.2 | -0.2 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 4.2 |
| Retail Sales | 0.6 | -0.1 | -0.2 | 4.7 | 4.4 | 2.9 | 1.9 |
| Motor Vehicle & Parts | 2.0 | -1.3 | -0.9 | 4.5 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 7.3 |
| Retail Less Autos | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 0.4 |
| Gasoline Stations | -0.3 | 0.1 | 2.0 | 9.7 | 8.9 | -5.7 | -17.6 |
| Food Service & Drinking Places Sales | 0.4 | 0.4 | -0.0 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 5.9 | 8.1 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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