Global| Oct 15 2018U.S. Retail Sales Post Disappointing Increase
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Total retail sales improved 0.1% (4.7% y/y) during September following an unrevised 0.1% August gain. A 0.6% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Excluding motor vehicles and parts, retail sales eased [...]
Total retail sales improved 0.1% (4.7% y/y) during September following an unrevised 0.1% August gain. A 0.6% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Excluding motor vehicles and parts, retail sales eased 0.1% last month (+5.7% y/y) after a 0.2% rise, revised from 0.3%. A 0.4% increase had been expected. A measure of the underlying pace of retail spending is nonauto sales growth excluding gasoline and building materials. These sales increased 0.5% in September (4.9% y/y) after little change during the prior month.
Weakness in sales last month was most pronounced at restaurant & drinking establishments where purchases weakened 1.8% (+7.2% y/y) after a 0.3% gain.
Elsewhere, patterns amongst sales categories were mixed. Purchases at nonstore retailers strengthened 1.1% (11.4% y/y) after a 0.5% gain. Sales of furniture & home furnishings stores also improved 1.1% (4.3% y/y) and offset a 0.8% decline in the prior month. Electronics & appliance store sales increased 0.9% (5.8% y/y) after a 0.6% rise. Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores sales rose 0.7% (-3.8% y/y) after five consecutive months of decline.
Posting lesser increases were apparel & accessory store sales which rose 0.5% (4.6% y/y) after a 2.8% decline. General merchandise store sales gained 0.3% (3.6% y/y) following a 0.1% uptick. Building materials & garden equipment store sales inched 0.1% higher (1.5% y/y) after a 0.8% increase. Moving lower by 0.8% (+11.4% y/y) were gasoline service station sales following a 1.1% rise.
Sales of nondiscretionary items were mixed last month. Food & beverages store sales gained 0.2% (2.9% y/y) after a 0.3% decline. Health & personal care product store sales declined 0.3% (+4.1% y/y) after a 0.5% rise.
The retail sales data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics forecast is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Retail Spending (% chg) | Sep | Aug | Jul | Sep Y/Y | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Retail Sales & Food Services | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 4.7 | 4.3 | 3.1 | 2.6 |
| Excluding Autos | -0.1 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 5.7 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 1.4 |
| Retail Sales | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 1.9 |
| Motor Vehicle & Parts | 0.8 | -0.5 | 0.0 | 1.1 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 7.2 |
| Retail Less Autos | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 5.4 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.4 |
| Gasoline Stations | -0.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 11.4 | 8.8 | -5.7 | -17.6 |
| Food Service & Drinking Places Sales | -1.8 | 0.3 | 1.2 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 5.6 | 8.2 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
More Economy in Brief
