Global| Jul 14 2006U.S. Retail Sales Lower Due To Weakness in Autos & Housing
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
US retail sales fell 0.1% last month following an unrevised 0.1% up tick during May. It was the first m/m decline since February and it resulted in a 3.7% (AR) increase for 2Q after the 13.4% jump the prior quarter. Consensus [...]
US retail sales fell 0.1% last month following an unrevised 0.1% up tick during May. It was the first m/m decline since February and it resulted in a 3.7% (AR) increase for 2Q after the 13.4% jump the prior quarter. Consensus expectations had been for a 0.4% increase in sales last month.
Nonauto retail sales increased an expected 0.3% but the rise during May was revised up to 0.7%. Nonauto retail spending grew 6.6% (AR) last quarter after an 11.4% rise during 1Q.
Lower sales by motor vehicle & parts dealers led last month's sales decline. A 1.4% drop (-3.5% y/y) was the third m/m decline this year despite a 1.3% rise in June unit auto sales to 16.30M.
Building material sales fell further in June. The 1.0% (+8.8% y/y) m/m decline was the third in a row and the fifth in the last seven months.
Sales at gasoline stations increased another 1.1% (20.4% y/y) even though retail gasoline prices fell 0.8% m/m during June to an average of $2.89 per gallon. Gas prices have since jumped to $2.97.
Less gasoline, nonauto retail sales rose 0.1% (7.0% y/y) after a 0.6% May increase that was double the rise estimated initially. During 2Q, nonauto retail sales less gasoline increased 3.3% (AR) after a 12.2% spurt during 1Q.
Sales of discretionary items were firm last month. Sales of furniture, electronics & appliances increased 0.4% (6.8% y/y) after a 0.3% gain during May which was initially estimated as a 0.1% decline. General merchandise stores rose 0.3% (4.6% y/y) after an unrevised like gain during May and apparel store sales also rose 0.3% (4.9% y/y) though the prior month's increase was doubled to 0.4%. Sales of nonstore retailers (internet & catalogue) slipped 0.3% (12.3% y/y) after an upwardly revised 3.0% May spike.
| June | May | Y/Y | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales & Food Services | -0.1% | 0.1% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 4.2% |
| Excluding Autos | 0.3% | 0.7% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 4.7% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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