Global| Sep 14 2007U.S. Retail Sales in Line With Forecasts in August but Trend Down
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
U.S. August, retail sales rose 0.3% after an upwardly revised 0.5% gain in July. The overall rise was in line with Consensus expectations for a 0.5% increase. A shortfall, however, was registered by sales excluding autos which fell [...]
U.S. August, retail sales rose 0.3% after an upwardly revised 0.5% gain in July. The overall rise was in line with Consensus expectations for a 0.5% increase.
A shortfall, however, was registered by sales excluding autos which fell 0.4%. Any disappointment in that decline was mitigated by the upward revision to the July increase in sales to 0.7% from 0.4% reported initially. Consensus expectations were for a 0.2% gain in August.Nonauto retail sales less gasoline fell 0.1%r (4.9% y/y) after a July gain that was revised to 0.8% from 0.6% reported last month.
Sales of discretionary items were generally firm last month. Furniture, home furnishings & appliance stores rose 0.4% (2.5% y/y) after an upwardly revised 1.5% July increase that was nearly double the initial report. Sales at general merchandise stores rose 0.3% (5.6% y/y) after rising an unrevised 0.9% in July.Apparel store sales were the disappointment and fell 0.1% after a little revised 1.6% July.
Reflecting weakness in the housing market, building material sales fell a hard 1.0% (-0.1% y/y) in August following a 0.8% July increase that was revised up from 0.2%.
Sales of nonstore retailers (internet & catalogue) fell 1.0% (+6.9% y/y) but the prior month's initially reported gain of 0.4% was revised up to 1.3%.
Sales by motor vehicle & parts dealers rose 2.8% (3.0% y/y) but the 0.3% increase that was reported last month was revised now to show a 1.4% decline. Unit vehicle sales jumped 6.5% in August, spurred by new sales promotions.
Gasoline service station sales fell 2.4% reflecting a 1.7% m/m decline in gas prices at the pump to an average $2.79 per gallon (-3.4% y/y). The decline has since bottomed.
| August | July | Y/Y | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales & Food Services | 0.3% | 0.5% | 3.7% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.1% |
| Excluding Autos | -0.4% | 0.7% | 3.9% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.1% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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