U.S. Retail Sales Driven By Autos & Gasoline

Retail sales jumped 1.1% (6.5% y/y) during February following upwardly revised gains of 0.6% and 0.3% during the prior two months. The improvement  about matched Consensus expectations for a 1.1% rise according to Action Economics. The latest increase was the strongest since September. Higher gasoline prices ware behind much of last month's spending and gas purchases which rose 3.3% (10.3% y/y). Outlays on motor vehicles also were strong and jumped 1.6% (6.9% y/y). Excluding both gasoline and autos, retail sales rose 0.5% last month (5.4% y/y) after a 0.9% January increase.

Strength in motor vehicle purchases follows the earlier report of a 6.5% rise (13.7% y/y) in unit sales. However, purchases of other discretionary items again were mixed. Apparel stores posted a 1.8% jump (7.3% y/y) after a 0.7% January gain. To the weak side, furniture, home furnishings & appliances slipped 0.1% (+3.1% y/y) following a 1.1% January rise. General merchandise store sales slipped 0.1% (+2.9% y/y) after January's 0.8% gain. Sales by nonstore retailers rose 1.0% (8.5% y/y) and restaurant sales increased 0.8% (8.2% y/y).

The retail sales figure are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics figures are in the AS1REPNA database.

Retail Spending (%)	Feb	Jan	Dec	Feb Y/Y	2011	2010	2009
Total Retail Sales & Food Services	1.1	0.6	0.3	6.5	7.7	6.4	-7.0
Excluding Autos	0.9	1.1	-0.2	6.4	7.2	5.7	-5.5
Retail Sales	1.1	0.5	0.3	6.3	7.9	6.8	-7.8
Motor Vehicle & Parts	1.6	-1.6	2.6	6.9	10.1	9.8	-13.7
Retail excluding Autos	1.0	1.1	-0.3	6.1	7.4	6.1	-6.3
Gasoline Stations	3.3	1.9	-2.1	10.3	17.4	17.0	-22.2
Non-Auto Less Gasoline	0.5	0.9	0.0	5.4	5.8	4.5	-3.3
Food Service	0.8	1.4	0.6	8.2	5.9	2.6	-0.5

U.S. JOLTS: Job Openings Ease
by Tom Moeller  March 13, 2012

Recent labor market improvement hesitated as indicated by the slip in the January job openings rate. The figure slipped to 2.5% from the recovery's high of 2.6%. The figures in the Bureau of Labor Statistics Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) were revised back three years. The latest reading remained improved versus the recession low of 1.6%. The job openings rate is the number of job openings on the last business day of the month as a percent of total employment plus job openings. The actual number of job openings in January fell 2.3% (+20.9% y/y) but still was near the highest level since June 2008.

The private-sector job openings rate slipped from its high to 2.7% but has moved steadily higher versus the recession low of 1.7%. The professional & business services job openings rate slipped from its high to 4.0%. It too remained near the recovery high. In manufacturing the rate rose to another recovery high of 2.3% and was more-than-double the mid-2009 low. Offsetting this strength was more-moderate improvement in education & health services. In leisure & hospitality businesses, the openings rate slipped m/m to 3.1% but was still near its recovery high. The job openings rate in government held for the third month at a low 1.6%.

In a sign that qualified job candidates are difficult to find, the hires rate slipped to 3.1%, its lowest in six months. The hires rate is the number of hires during the month divided by employment. The hires rate in the private sector held near a low 3.5% while the government's rate improved to the highest since the end of Census taking. The factory sector the hires rate fell to 2.1% and reversed most of this recovery's improvement. Overall hires in the private sector fell for the third month in the last four (+4.5% y/y) while in the public sector they jumped 8.0% (22.8% y/y). Leisure & hospitality business hires rose nearly one-quarter y/y while hires in education & health services rose 13.7% y/y. Hires in professional & business services weakened substantially and fell 5.8% y/y while in manufacturing they were off 5.0% y/y.

The job separations rate held steady at 3.0% but the actual number of separations rose 3.4% y/y. Separations include quits, layoffs, discharges, and other separations as well as retirements. The layoff & discharge rate alone remained at its all-time low of 1.2%. The private sector layoff rate fell to its recovery low of 1.2%; 1.4% in the private sector and 0.6% in government.

The JOLTS survey dates only to December 2000 and the figures are available in Haver's USECON database.

JOLTS (Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey)	Jan	Dec	Nov	Jan'10	2011	2010	2009
Job Openings, Total
Rate (%)	2.5	2.6	2.4	2.1	2.6	2.2	1.8
Total (000s)	3,459	3,540	3,274	2,860	3,540	2,902	2,432
Hires, Total
Rate (%)	3.1	3.2	3.2	3.0	38.0	37.4	35.5
Total(000s)	4,158	4,188	4,268	3,934	50,006	48,647	46,386
Layoffs & Discharges, Total
Rate (%)	1.2	1.3	1.3	1.3	15.6	16.7	20.5
Total (000s)	1,646	1,685	1,770	1,659	20,678	21,737	26,731

U.S. Small Business Optimism Nears Recovery High
by Tom Moeller  March 13, 2012

The National Federation of Independent Business indicted that its February index of small business optimism was 94.3 versus 93.9 in January. The latest was the highest in a year and the best since December 2007. The percentage of firms expecting higher real sales in six months rose to its highest in a year though those indicating that now is a good time to expand the business slipped from its recent high. Offsetting these improvements was a third consecutive decline in the percent of firms planning to raise employment. The percentage of firms raising average selling prices remained near zero but those planning to raise prices has been rising. 

The most important problems faced by small business were poor sales (by a greatly lessened 22%), government requirements (21%, the highest since 1996), taxes (21%), inflation (a rising 9%), insurance cost & availability (7%), competition from large businesses (5%), quality of labor (5%), financial & interest rates (4%) and the cost of labor (3%).

Roughly 24 million small businesses exist in the U.S. and they create 80% of all new jobs. The NFIB figures can be found in Haver's SURVEYS database.

 

National Federation of Independent Business	Feb	Jan	Dec	Feb'11	2011	2010	2009
Small Business Optimism Index (SA,1986=100)	94.3	93.9	93.8	94.5	91.4	89.9	86.7
Firms Expecting Higher Real Sales In Six Months (Net %)	12	10	9	14	3	1	-11
Firms Expecting Economy To Improve (Net %)	-6	-3	-8	9	-9	-1	-0
Firms With One or More Job Openings (Net %)	17	18	15	15	14	10	9
Firms With Few or No Qualified Applicant For Job Openings (Net %)	31	31	34	30	32	27	--
Firms Reporting That Credit Was Harder To Get (Net %)	8	8	8	11	10	13	14
Firms Raising Avg. Selling Prices (Net %)	1	-1	0	5	5	-12	-20

U.S. Gasoline Prices Move Higher While Natural Gas Plunges
by Tom Moeller  March 13, 2012

Regular gasoline prices rose another four cents last week to $3.83 per gallon. Reduced seasonal demand typically fosters lower gasoline prices this time of year, and they haven't followed the norm. Haver Analytics' seasonally-adjusted price for regular unleaded held steady at a record $3.94 for the third consecutive week. Yesterday, the wholesale price for a gallon of unleaded was $3.08 versus $3.03 averaged last week.

Natural gas prices also have been quite weak and fell twenty cents last week to $2.24 per mmbtu and remained down 41.0% y/y. Yesterday prices fell further to $2.16 and were the lowest since 2001, down from the early-January 2010 peak of $6.50.

The price for a barrel of light sweet crude oil slipped last week to $106.31 but still was up sharply from the low of $79.71 this past October. Yesterday, the price held at $106.34. Prices peaked at $113.93 last April. Brent crude rose last week to $126.57 per barrel and increased further yesterday to a new high of  $127.34.

Gasoline demand fell 7.8% last week on average versus last year. Demand for residual fuel oil, used for heating, was off by nearly one-half y/y and distillate demand was off 7.6% y/y. Inventories of crude oil and petroleum products fell 1.20% year-to-year compared to a 10.0% rise during mid-2009.

The energy price data are reported by the U.S. Department of Energy and can be found in Haver's WEEKLY database. The daily figures are in DAILY and the gasoline demand figures are in OILWKLY.

Weekly Price	03/12/12	03/05/12	02/27/12	Y/Y%	2011	2010	2009
Retail Regular Gasoline ($ per Gallon, Regular)	3.83	3.79	3.72	7.3	3.52	2.78	2.35
Light Sweet Crude Oil, WTI ($ per bbl.)	106.31	107.49	107.43	2.5	95.14	79.51	61.39
Natural Gas ($/mmbtu)	2.24	2.44	2.63	-41.0	3.99	4.40	3.95

FOMC Assessment of Economy Improves; Rates To Stay Low
by Tom Moeller March 13, 2012

As expected, the Federal Open Market Committee today left the Federal funds rate in a "range from 0 to 1/4 percent." The Fed funds rate has remained unchanged since late-2008 at its lowest level ever. The discount rate also was left unchanged at 0.75%. The Fed indicated that the economy may warrant an exceptionally low Fed funds rate at least through 2014. "To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with its dual mandate, the Committee expects to maintain a highly accommodative stance for monetary policy."

Regarding the economy, the Fed indicated that there's been moderate improvement. It stated that "labor market conditions have improved" and "household spending and business fixed investment have continued to advance." However, "the housing sector remains depressed."

The Fed indicated that "inflation has been subdued in recent months, although prices of crude oil and gasoline have increased lately. Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable."

"The Committee also decided to continue its program to extend the average maturity of its holdings of securities as announced in September."

A complete text of the Fed's latest press release can be found http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20120313a.htm

The Haver databases USECON, WEEKLY and DAILY contain the figures from the Federal Reserve Board.

	Current	Last	2010	2009	2008
Federal Funds Rate, % (Target)	0.00-0.25	0.00-0.25	0.17	0.16	1.93
Discount Rate, %	0.75	0.75	0.72	0.50	2.39