Global| Aug 03 2004U.S. Personal Income Growth Slowed
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Personal income grew an expected 0.2% last month. The slim gain followed growth of 0.6% in the prior two months. Wages & salaries fell slightly (+4.8% y/y) following several months of strong gain. The decline reflected weakness across [...]
Personal income grew an expected 0.2% last month. The slim gain followed growth of 0.6% in the prior two months.
Wages & salaries fell slightly (+4.8% y/y) following several months of strong gain. The decline reflected weakness across industries.
Personal disposable income grew 0.2% (6.2% y/y), down sharply from the gains of the prior several months. After accounting for a 2.5% y/y rise in prices, real disposable income rose 3.5%.
Consumer spending fell 0.7%, dragged lower by a 13.4% m/m skid in unit sales of light vehicle. No change in PCE had been expected. Non-durable goods spending also slipped by 0.3% (+8.4% y/y). Services rose 0.2% (4.9% y/y).
The PCE chain price index rose 0.2%. Less food & energy prices rose the same 0.1% (1.5% y/y) as the downwardly revised May.
The savings rate fell to 2.0% and prior figures were revised down.
"The Productivity and Jobs Connection: The Long and the Short Run of It" from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco can be found here.
| Disposition of Personal Income | June | May | Y/Y | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Personal Income | 0.2% | 0.6% | 5.4% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 3.5% |
| Personal Consumption | -0.7% | 1.0% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 4.7% |
| Savings Rate | 2.0% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.8% |
| PCE Chain Price Index | 0.2% | 0.4% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 2.1% |
by Tom Moeller August 3, 2004
Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported that announced job cuts rose 8.1% to 69,572 last month. The gain followed a 12.3% m/m slide in June.
The three month moving average of job cut announcements slipped further to the lowest level since late 2000 (-2.9% y/y).
During the last ten years there has been an 86% (inverse) correlation between the three month moving average of announced job cuts and the three month change payroll employment.
Job cut announcements differ from layoffs. Many are achieved through attrition, early retirement or just never occur.
A new series from Challenger indicated that announced hiring plans in July fell by nearly one-third versus June, but the series dates back only to May.
| Challenger, Gray & Christmas | July | June | Y/Y | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Announced Job Cuts | 69,572 | 64,343 | -18.3% | 1,236,426 | 1,431,052 | 1,956,876 |
by Tom Moeller August 3, 2004
Chain store sales rose by 0.2% for the third consecutive week according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS.
Sales for all of July rose 0.3% following two month of decline.
During the last ten years there has been a 59% correlation between y/y change in chain store sales and the change in non-auto retail sales less gasoline.
The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.
| ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100) | 07/31/04 | 07/24/04 | Y/Y | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Weekly Retail Chain Store Sales | 441.0 | 440.2 | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 2.1% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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