Global| Dec 02 2010U.S. Pending Home Sales Surge With Improved Affordability
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that October pending sales of existing single-family homes jumped 10.4% m/m. The gain reversed the unrevised September decline and brought sales to the highest level since April, [...]
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that October pending sales of existing single-family homes
jumped 10.4% m/m. The gain reversed the unrevised September decline and brought
sales to the highest level since April, just before the expiration of the
home-buyer tax credit. Consensus expectations had been for a 1.0% m/m decline.
Sales throughout the country sales jumped but still remained down sharply from the year-ago level.
In a related report, the Realtors' Association reported that housing affordability rose during October to a record high. The median price for a single-family home fell 25.9% from its 2006 high and the monthly mortgage rate fell to a record low 4.62%. The average mortgage payment of principal plus interest came to 13.6% of income, down from its 2006 high of 24.8%.
Pending home sales figures are analogous to the new home sales data from the Commerce Department in that they measure existing home sales when the sales contract is signed, not at the time the sale is closed. The series dates back to 2001 and the data is available in Haver's PREALTOR database. The home affordability figures are available in the REALTOR database.
Gauging the Odds of a Double-Dip Recession Amid Signals and Slowdowns from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas is available here.
| Pending Home Sales (2001=100) | Oct. | Sept. | Aug. | Y/Y % | 2009 | 2008 | 2007 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 89.3 | 80.9 | 82.4 | -20.6 | 95.1 | 86.9 | 95.9 |
| Northeast | 71.3 | 59.6 | 60.6 | -27.3 | 76.7 | 73.0 | 86.1 |
| Midwest | 81.7 | 64.2 | 68.1 | -24.8 | 88.8 | 80.7 | 89.6 |
| South | 93.8 | 87.6 | 90.8 | -18.4 | 98.9 | 90.3 | 107.4 |
| West | 104.3 | 104.7 | 101.1 | -15.6 | 109.9 | 99.2 | 92.1 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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