Global| Nov 03 2017U.S. Payrolls Rebound Following Hurricane Loses; Unemployment Dips, but Earnings Hold Steady
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Nonfarm payrolls increased 261,000 (1.4% y/y) during October following an 18,000 September increase and a 208,000 August gain. Together these two figures were revised up by 90,000. A 318,000 increase in payrolls had been expected in [...]
Nonfarm payrolls increased 261,000 (1.4% y/y) during October following an 18,000 September increase and a 208,000 August gain. Together these two figures were revised up by 90,000. A 318,000 increase in payrolls had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Last month's employment increase was greatest in the leisure & hospitality sector where hiring rose 106,000. That fully recaptured September's decline. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1% from 4.2%. An unchanged level had been expected. The overall unemployment rate, including the marginally-attached and those working part-time for economic reasons, fell to 7.9%, down from 9.5% one year earlier. Average hourly earnings were little changed (2.4% y/y). A 0.2% gain had been expected.
The labor market data are contained in Haver's USECON database. Detailed figures are in the EMPL and LABOR databases. The expectations figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Employment: (SA, M/M Change, 000s) | Oct | Sep | Aug | Oct Y/Y | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payroll Employment | 261 | 18 | 208 | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.9% |
| Previous | -- | -33 | 169 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Manufacturing | 24 | 6 | 44 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| Construction | 11 | 11 | 24 | 2.6 | 3.9 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
| Private Service-Producing | 219 | -3 | 111 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 2.1 |
| Government | 9 | 3 | 24 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| Average Weekly Hours - Private Sector | 34.4 | 34.4 | 34.4 | 34.4 | 34.4 | 34.5 | 34.5 |
| Private Sector Average Hourly Earnings (%) | -0.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 2.1 |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 5.3 | 6.2 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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