Global| May 06 2011U.S. Payroll Hiring Is Firm But Jobless Rate Ticks Up
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Nonfarm payrolls increased 244,000 last month after a 221,000 March gain, initially reported as 216,000. The February rise also was revised up to 235,000 from 194,000. The latest gain exceeded Consensus expectations for a 185,000 [...]
Nonfarm payrolls increased 244,000 last month after a 221,000 March gain, initially reported as 216,000. The February rise also was revised up to 235,000 from 194,000. The latest gain exceeded Consensus expectations for a 185,000 increase. The unemployment rate rose to 9.0% compared to expectations for a further slip to 8.8%
From the establishment jobs survey, the 244,000 increase in jobs was the strongest since May of last year. Again, a rise in private service sector employment of 224,000 powered the increase. The increase reflected a 57,100 rise (0.7% y/y) in retail trade, a 51,000 gain in professional & business (3.1% y/y), a 49,000 increase (2.2% y/y) in education and health and a 46,000 rise (1.7% y/y) in leisure & hospitality. Temporary help services jobs slipped 2,300 (+11.0% y/y), the first negative month in three. Government jobs fell another 24,000 (-1.8% y/y) as budget shortfalls continued to force job cutbacks. Local government payrolls fell 14,000 (-1.8% y/y) while state payrolls were off 8,000 (-0.5% y/y). Jobs with the federal government slipped 2,000 (-4.4% y/y).
The household survey indicated a rebound in the unemployment
rate to 9.0%. It remained, however, well below the high of 10.1% in
October 2009. The overall unemployment rate, including those involuntarily
working part-time, rose to 15.9% and retraced its March decline.
Employment fell 190,000 (0.2% y/y) while the civilian labor force inched
up 15,000 (-0.7% y/y). The labor force participation rate remained at its
recent low of 64.2% versus the high of 67.1% roughly ten years ago. The
average duration of unemployment slipped to 38.3 weeks from its record of
39.0. The number of those unemployed for more than 27 weeks (-12.3% y/y)
fell to its lowest since October 2009.
The private sector workweek in April remained stable m/m at 34.3 hrs. for the third consecutive month. Overtime hours rose to 3.3 hrs., the highest since February 2008.
The diffusion index of private sector employment, which measures the breadth of job increase, rose slightly to 64.6%. The factory sector index rose to 65.4% and made up part of its March decline.
Average hourly earnings beat expectations and rose 0.3% (2.1% y/y) after an upwardly revised no-change in March. A 0.2% increase had been forecasted. Earnings in the goods-producing sector rose 0.1% (2.1% y/y) while services increased 0.3% (2.0% y/y).
The figures referenced above are available in Haver's USECON database. Additional detail can be found in the LABOR and in the EMPL databases. The expectation figures are from Action Economics and are in the AS1REPNA database.
Explaining the Recent Decline in the Unemployment Rate from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago can be found here.
| Employment: (M/M Chg., 000s) | Apr | Mar | Feb | Y/Y | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payroll Employment | 244 | 221 | 235 | 1.0% | -0.7% | -4.4% | -0.6% |
| Previous | -- | 216 | 194 | -- | -0.5 | -4.3 | -0.6 |
| Manufacturing | 29 | 22 | 37 | 1.7 | -2.7 | -11.6 | -3.4 |
| Construction | 5 | 2 | 39 | -0.8 | -8.1 | -16.0 | -6.1 |
| Private Service Producing | 224 | 194 | 180 | 1.7 | -0.1 | -3.5 | -0.2 |
| Government | -24 | -10 | -26 | -1.8 | -0.3 | 0.3 | 1.3 |
| Average Weekly Hours | 34.3 | 34.3 | 34.3 | 34.1 (Apr.'10) |
34.2 | 33.9 | 34.5 |
| Average Hourly Earnings | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.8% |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 9.0 | 8.8 | 8.9 | 9.8 (Apr.'10) |
9.6 | 9.3 | 5.8 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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