Global| Aug 05 2016U.S. Payroll Growth Is Surprisingly Strong
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The job market remained on firm footing during July. Nonfarm payroll employment grew 255,000 (1.7% y/y) following upwardly revised gains of 292,000 and 24,000 during the prior two months. A 180,000 increase had been expected in the [...]
The job market remained on firm footing during July. Nonfarm payroll employment grew 255,000 (1.7% y/y) following upwardly revised gains of 292,000 and 24,000 during the prior two months. A 180,000 increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The three-month average change in payrolls of 190,000 was the strongest since March, but was below the peak 259,000 three-month change averaged last July. The unemployment rate remained at 4.9%. A 4.8% rate was expected. The unemployment rate including marginally attached workers and those working part-time for economic reasons ticked up to 9.7%. Average hourly earnings gained 0.3% (2.6% y/y) versus expectations for a 0.2% rise.
The labor market data are contained in Haver's USECON database. Detailed figures are in the EMPL and LABOR databases. The expectations figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Employment: (SA, M/M Change, 000s) | Jul | Jun | May | Jul Y/Y | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payroll Employment | 255 | 292 | 24 | 1.7 | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.6% |
| Previous | -- | 287 | 11 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Manufacturing | 9 | 15 | -17 | -0.3 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| Construction | 14 | -3 | -18 | 3.3 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 3.7 |
| Private Service-Producing | 201 | 254 | 44 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 2.1 |
| Government | 38 | 33 | 25 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.3 |
| Average Weekly Hours - Private Sector | 34.5 | 34.4 | 34.4 | 34.6 | 34.5 | 34.5 | 34.5 |
| Private Sector Average Hourly Earnings (%) | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.1 |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 6.2 | 7.4 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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