Global| Aug 25 2015U.S. New Home Sales Rebound Along With Prices
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
New home sales during July increased 5.4% to 507,000 (SAAR) following a 7.7% June decline to a little-revised 481,000. The rebound left sales in the middle of the range maintained since late-last year. Sales of 510,000 were expected [...]
New home sales during July increased 5.4% to 507,000 (SAAR) following a 7.7% June decline to a little-revised 481,000. The rebound left sales in the middle of the range maintained since late-last year. Sales of 510,000 were expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
The median price for a new single-family home improved 3.0% to $285,900, but that was only the second monthly rise in the last eight. The y/y gain of 2.0% was down from rates closer to 10.0% from 2012-to-2014. The average price of a new single-family home increased 13.1% to $361,600, up 4.8% y/y.
Sales increased m/m in three of the four regions of the country. Sales in the Northeast rose by nearly one-quarter (39.1% y/y) to 32,000, the highest level since May of last year. In the West, sales posted a 6.7% rise (37.5% y/y) to 127,000, but remained well below the 145,000 peak reached in January. Sales in the South gained 5.8% and were up by one-quarter y/y. Last month's sales level of 294,000 remained in the middle of this year's range. In the Midwest, new home sales declined 6.9% to 54,000, down for the third straight month and unchanged y/y.
The number of new homes for sale increased 1.9% (6.9% y/y) to 218,000, the most since early-2010. The median number of months-for-sale eased to 3.6, near the middle of the range during the last two years. That was down from 14 months late in 2009. The months supply at the current sales rate was 5.2, up just slightly from the 2013 monthly low of 3.0 months.
The data in this report are available in Haver's USECON database. The consensus expectation figure from the Action Economics survey is available in the AS1REPNA database.
Residual Seasonality and Monetary Policy from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco can be found here.
| U.S. New Single-Family Home Sales (SAAR, 000s) | Jul | Jun | May | Jul Y/Y % | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 507 | 481 | 521 | 22.9 | 439 | 429 | 369 |
| Northeast | 32 | 26 | 25 | 50.0 | 28 | 30 | 28 |
| Midwest | 54 | 58 | 60 | 0.0 | 60 | 62 | 48 |
| South | 294 | 278 | 295 | 25.0 | 244 | 232 | 194 |
| West | 127 | 119 | 141 | 37.5 | 108 | 106 | 97 |
| Median Price (NSA, $) | 285,900 | 277,500 | 283,900 | 2.0 | 283,775 | 265,092 | 242,108 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
