Global| Jul 18 2008U.S. NAHB Housing Market Index Fell To A Record Low
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The National Association of Home Builders' (NAHB) reported that its July Composite Housing Market Index fell to 16 from 18 in June. The latest level was the lowest in the series' history which extends back to 1984 and it was more than [...]
The National Association of Home Builders' (NAHB) reported that its July Composite Housing Market Index fell to 16 from 18 in June. The latest level was the lowest in the series' history which extends back to 1984 and it was more than two-thirds lower than the high during 2004.
During the last twenty years there has been a 76% correlation between the y/y change in the Composite Index and the change in single family housing starts.
The index for single-family detached homes also fell to a new series' low while builders' view of single-family home sales during the next six months fell to the series' low.
Except for a modest uptick in the Northeast, the builders' index in the country's regions continued to decline.
Traffic of prospective home buyers declined and hit a new low for the series.
The NAHB index is a diffusion index based on a survey of builders. Readings above 50 signal that more builders view conditions good than poor.
Visit the National Association of Home Builders.
The Mortgage Crisis: Let Markets Work, But Compensate the Truly Needy from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis is available here.
| Nat'l Association of Home Builders | July | June | July '07 | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite Housing Market Index | 16 | 18 | 24 | 27 | 42 | 67 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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