Global| Dec 09 2014U.S. JOLTS: Job Openings Rate Improves as Hiring Remains Firm
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The job openings rate during October ticked up to 3.3%, close to where it's been for six months. The job openings rate is the number of job openings on the last business day of the month as a percent of total employment plus job [...]
The job openings rate during October ticked up to 3.3%, close to where it's been for six months. The job openings rate is the number of job openings on the last business day of the month as a percent of total employment plus job openings. The actual number of job openings surged 21.0% y/y to 4.834 million. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports these figures in its Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS).
The private-sector job openings rate recovered to 3.6% its highest level since April 2001, up from the recession low of 1.7%. The rate in leisure & hospitality businesses was 4.7%, the highest point since May. The rate in the professional & business services industries held at 4.6% for the third straight month and in the health care & social assistance sector it remained high at 4.1%. The 3.1% rate in trade, transportation & utilities industries was up from the recession low of 1.2%. The 2.3% rate in the factory sector was down after five months at 2.4%. The construction rate improved to 2.2%. The job openings rate in the government sector fell m/m to 1.8%, its lowest level since March..
The hires rate held at its cycle high of 3.6%. The hires rate is the number of hires during the month divided by employment. The private sector hires rate slipped to 4.1%. Amongst leisure & hospitality firms the rate held at 6.0%. The rate in professional & business services retreated to 5.6% but in construction it improved to 5.0%. The hiring rate in education slipped to 2.8% but in the factory sector it held at 2.3%. In the government sector the hiring rate held at a low 1.4%.
The number of hires slipped 0.4% m/m but increased 12.0% y/y. Private sector hires rose 12.2% y/y. Professional & business services hiring increased 21.8% y/y and factory sector employment grew 20.1% y/y. Trade, transportation & utilities jobs rose 18.3% y/y. Hiring in the health care & social assistance sector improved 13.4% y/y and leisure & hospitality sector employment increased 8.6%. Government hiring rose 8.9% y/y.
The job separations rate jumped to 3.5% and the actual number of separations increased 12.1% y/y. Separations include quits, layoffs, discharges, and other separations as well as retirements. The private sector separations rate held at 3.8%, while the government sector's rate inched remained at 1.4%. The layoff & discharge rate held near the record low of 1.2%. The private sector layoff rate inched up m/m to 1.4% and the government's rate was steady at 0.4%.
The JOLTS survey dates to December 2000 and the figures are available in Haver's USECON database.
| JOLTS (Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey, SA) | Oct | Sep | Aug | Oct.'13 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Job Openings, Total | |||||||
| Rate (%) | 3.3 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 2.5 |
| Total (000s) | 4,834 | 4,685 | 4,853 | 21.0% | 7.4% | 3.1% | 22.4% |
| Hires, Total | |||||||
| Rate (%) | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 39.6 | 38.8 | 38.1 |
| Total (000s) | 5,055 | 5,075 | 4,742 | 12.0% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 3.0% |
| Layoffs & Discharges, Total | |||||||
| Rate (%) | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 14.6 | 15.5 | 15.7 |
| Total (000s) | 2.8% | 2.1% | -6.2% | 9.9% | -4.6% | 1.2% | -4.8% |
U.S. Small Business Optimism Jumps to New High The National Federation of Independent Business reported that its Small
Business Optimism Index for November improved to 98.1 following an unrevised
gain to 96.1 during October. The latest level was the highest since February
2007. Improvement in the component series versus October included the percentage of
firms expecting higher real sales. The percentage planning to increase
employment rose to its highest level since July but the percentage indicating
few or no qualified applicants for job positions remained near its cycle high.
The percentage of companies indicated that now was a good time to expand the
business held near its recovery peak. The percentage indicating that credit was
harder to get ticked up m/m but remained near the lowest level since 2006. The
percentage planning to add to inventories slipped versus its recent high as did
the percentage planning capital expenditures. On the pricing front, the percentage of firms raising prices returned to the
lowest level in nine months. The percentage planning price increases ticked
lower. Labor's pricing power firmed somewhat. The percentage of firms raising
worker compensation increased to its highest point in three months. The
percentage planning to raise compensation returned to its highest level since
March 2008. The most important problems faced by small business were taxes (23%),
government requirements (22%), poor sales (12%), quality of labor (10%),
competition from large businesses (8%), insurance cost & availability (7%),
cost of labor (5%), inflation (3%) and financial & interest rates (3%). Roughly 24 million small businesses exist in the U.S. and they create 80% of
all new jobs. The typical NFIB member employs 10 people and reports gross sales
of about $500,000 a year. The NFIB figures can be found in Haver's SURVEYS
database.
by Tom Moeller December
9, 2014
National Federation of
Independent Business
Nov
Oct
Sep
Nov'13
2013
2012
2011
Small Business Optimism Index (SA,
1986=100)
98.1
96.1
95.3
92.5
92.4
92.2
91.4
Firms Expecting Higher Real Sales In Six
Months (SA, Net %)
14
9
5
3
4
2
3
Firms Expecting Economy To Improve (SA,
Net %)
13
-3
-2
-20
-15
-9
-9
Firms Planning to Increase Employment
(SA, Net %)
11
10
9
9
6
4
3
Firms With Few or No Qualified
Applicants For Job Openings (SA, %)
45
45
42
44
39
35
32
Firms Reporting That Credit Was Harder
To Get (SA, Net %)
5
4
7
6
6
8
10
Firms Raising Average Selling Prices
(SA, Net %)
4
8
4
2
2
4
5
U.S. Gasoline Price Decline Accelerates, Sparking Demand
by Tom Moeller December 9, 2014
The price for a gallon of regular gasoline slumped last week to an average $2.68 (-18.0% y/y) versus $2.78 during the prior week. The 3.6% weekly decline was the quickest since prices hit their peak in 2011. Prices remained down versus an interim peak of $3.65 reached this past June. Haver Analytics constructs factors adjusting for the seasonal variation in pump prices. The seasonally adjusted price slipped to $2.92 per gallon.
WTI crude oil prices slumped to an average $67.20 last week (-30.2% y/y) from $72.36 during the prior period. Yesterday prices were down further to $63.05. The seasonally adjusted price generated by Haver declined to $69.36 per barrel last week. Brent crude oil prices fell to $70.07 last week (-37.5% y/y) and were $65.87 yesterday.
Natural gas prices declined last week to $3.65 per mmbtu (-7.3% y/y) and fell further to $3.49 yesterday.
The demand for all petroleum products declined 0.6% y/y in the week ended November 28 but gasoline demand improved 3.2% y/y as prices fell. Inventories of crude oil and petroleum products increased 1.4% y/y but gasoline inventories declined 1.8% y/y.
The energy price data are reported by the U.S. Department of Energy and can be found in Haver's WEEKLY database. The daily figures are in DAILY and the petroleum demand and inventory figures are in OILWKLY.
| Weekly Energy Prices | 12/08/14 | 12/01/14 | 11/24/14 | Y/Y% | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Gasoline ($ per Gallon, Regular) | 2.68 | 2.78 | 2.82 | -18.0 | 3.51 | 3.62 | 3.52 |
| Light Sweet Crude Oil, WTI ($ per bbl., WSJ) | 67.20 | 72.36 | 75.38 | -30.2 | 97.95 | 94.20 | 95.14 |
| Natural Gas ($/mmbtu, LA, WSJ) | 3.65 | 4.17 | 4.33 | -7.3 | 3.73 | 2.75 | 3.99 |
U.S. Wholesale Inventory Growth Outpaces Sales
by Tom Moeller December 9, 2014
Inventories in the wholesale sector during October increased 0.4% (6.8% y/y) following an revised 0.4% September rise, earlier reported as 0.3%. Nondurable goods inventories led the gain with a 1.2% increase 4.2% y/y), paced by a 3.2% gain (20.0% y/y) in drugs & sundries. Paper & paper products inventories increased 1.6% (2.6% y/y) and groceries gained 1.1% (4.1% y/y). To the downside were petroleum inventories, off 1.9% (-17.0% y/y), and chemical inventories by 1.8% (+2.6% y/y). Durable goods inventories were roughly unchanged (8.5% y/y) as a 1.6% rise (10.7% y/y) in hardware, plumbing & heating equipment was offset by a 1.4% drop (+7.9% y/y) in motor vehicles. Furniture inventories also fell 0.7% (+3.6% y/y).
Wholesale sector sales gained 0.2% (4.3% y/y) after no change in September, last month reported a +0.2%. Durable goods sales improved 0.8% (6.0% y/y). Electronic product sales increased 1.9% (4.6% y/y) and computer equipment sales rose 1.5% (2.9% y/y). Nondurable goods sales fell 0.3% (+2.8% y/y) as petroleum sales declined 5.8% (-8.7% y/y). Chemical product sales increased 3.0% (5.9% y/y) while paper product sales rose 1.0% (4.0% y/y).
The inventory-to-sales ratio was unchanged at 1.19 for the third straight month. The durable goods ratio of 1.57 reflected 2.43 in the machinery sector and 1.02 in electronic goods. The I/S ratio for nondurable goods increased to 0.86 as apparel held at 1.90 and petroleum ticked up to 0.32.The wholesale trade figures are available in Haver's USECON database.
| Wholesale Sector - NAICS Classification (%) | Oct | Sep | Aug | Y/Y | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inventories | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 6.8 | 4.0 | 5.5 | 9.4 |
| Sales | 0.2 | 0.0 | -0.8 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 12.4 |
| I/S Ratio | 1.19 | 1.19 | 1.19 | 1.16 (Oct.'13) | 1.17 | 1.18 | 1.15 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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