Global| Sep 13 2007U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Remained Low
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose a bit last week, but only by 4,000 to 319,000. A much larger increase to 325,000 had been expected by a Consensus of economists that would have reversed roughly half of the prior week's [...]
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose a bit last week, but only by 4,000 to 319,000. A much larger increase to 325,000 had been expected by a Consensus of economists that would have reversed roughly half of the prior week's 22,000 decline. The prior week's figure was revised down slightly to 315,000.
A claims level below 400,000 typically has been associated with growth in nonfarm payrolls. During the last six years there has been a (negative) 78% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payroll employment.
The four-week moving average of initial claims fell slightly to 324,000 (2.7% y/y).
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance fell by 6,000, reversing one third of the prior week's large 18,000 increase. That rise was revised lower from a 25,000 gain reported initially. The continuing claims numbers lag the initial claims figures by one week.
Since yearend 2006, continuing claims have risen 173,000 or by 7.2%
Payroll employment has risen 870,000 (0.6%) since yearend.
The insured rate of unemployment was unchanged at 2.0%.
The Rise in U.S. Household Indebtedness: Causes and Consequences from the Federal Reserve Bank can be found here.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 09/08/07 | 09/01/07 | Y/Y | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 319 | 315 | 2.2% | 313 | 331 | 343 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,585 | 4.2% | 2,545 | 3.3% | 2,459 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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