Global| Jul 25 2013U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Notch Higher
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose to 343,000 (-5.5% y/y) during the week ended July 20 from a revised 336,000 during the week prior, initially reported as 334,000. The latest figure compared to an expected 337,000 in the [...]
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose to 343,000 (-5.5% y/y) during the week ended July 20 from a revised 336,000 during the week prior, initially reported as 334,000. The latest figure compared to an expected 337,000 in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The four week moving average of claims slipped to 345,250. During the last ten years, there has been a 74% correlation between the level of claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payrolls.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance in the week ended July 13 fell back to 2.997 million (-8.9% y/y) from 3.116 million. The four week moving average of continuing claims rose slightly to 3.023 million. The insured rate of unemployment declined to 2.3%. This particular count covers only "regular" programs and does not include all extended benefit and other specialized jobless insurance programs. In the week of July 6, the latest figure available, the grand total of all benefit recipients backed up to 4.841 million, (-19.8% y/y). That compares to a cycle peak of 12.060 million in January 2010. The number of individuals who were collecting emergency and extended payments reached another cycle low of 1.612 million (-36.9% y/y).
By state, the insured rate of unemployment continued to vary greatly with Virginia (1.33%), Oklahoma (1.43%), Indiana (1.59%), Texas (1.61%), Ohio (1.72%), Tennessee (1.80%), Maine (1.82%) and Georgia (1.96%) at the low end of the range. At the high end were Michigan (2.18%), Washington (2.21%), Illinois (2.86%), New York (2.95%), Pennsylvania (3.25%), Connecticut (3.59%), New Jersey (3.64%) and California (3.80%).
Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The consensus estimates come from the Action Economics survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
Uncertainty and the Slow Labor Market Recovery from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco can be found here
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 07/20/13 | 07/13/03 | 07/06/13 | Y/Y % | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 343 | 336 | 358 | -5.5 | 375 | 409 | 459 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,997 | 3,116 | -8.9 | 3,318 | 3,744 | 4,544 |
| Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.6 (7/12) |
2.6 | 3.0 | 3.6 |
| Total "All Programs" (NSA) | -- | -- | 4.841 mil. | -19.8 | 6.047 mil. | 7.750 mil. | 9.850 mil. |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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