Global| Jan 30 2020U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Fall
by:Sandy Batten
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Initial claims for unemployment insurance declined 7,000 to 216,000 during the week ended January 25. Claims were down 11.5% from a year ago. The previous week's figure was revised up to 223,000 from 211,000. The Action Economics [...]
Initial claims for unemployment insurance declined 7,000 to 216,000 during the week ended January 25. Claims were down 11.5% from a year ago. The previous week's figure was revised up to 223,000 from 211,000. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had looked for 215,000 initial claims. The four-week moving average of initial claims declined to 214,500, the lowest level since early October, from 216,250 the previous week.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance in the week ended January 18 declined 44,000 to 1.703 million (-2.1% y/y) from the prior week's 1.747 million, revised up from 1.731 million. The four-week moving average of claimants fell to 1.756 million from 1.762 million, which had been the highest level since May 2018.
The insured rate of unemployment was steady at 1.2%, where it has been since mid-November. Apart from a few weeks over the past six months when this rate dipped to 1.1%, this is the lowest reading in the history of the series dating back to 1971.
Insured unemployment rates vary widely by state. During the week ending January 11, the lowest rates were in Florida (0.40%), Nebraska (0.51%), North Carolina (0.51%), Virginia (0.60%) and Tennessee (0.63%). The highest rates were in Montana (2.48%), Connecticut (2.57%), West Virginia (2.64%), New Jersey (2.70%) and Alaska (3.25%). Among the other largest states by population, the rate was 1.19% in Texas, 1.75% in New York and 2.18% in California. These state data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment claims dating back to 1967 are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database, and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
| Unemployment Insurance (SA, 000s) | 01/25/20 | 01/18/20 | 01/11/20 | Y/Y % | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 216 | 223 | 205 | -11.5 | 218 | 220 | 244 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 1,703 | 1,747 | -2.1 | 1,700 | 1,756 | 1,961 |
| Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.2 | 1.2 |
1.2 |
1.2 | 1.2 | 1.4 |
Sandy Batten
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Sandy Batten has more than 30 years of experience analyzing industrial economies and financial markets and a wide range of experience across the financial services sector, government, and academia. Before joining Haver Analytics, Sandy was a Vice President and Senior Economist at Citibank; Senior Credit Market Analyst at CDC Investment Management, Managing Director at Bear Stearns, and Executive Director at JPMorgan. In 2008, Sandy was named the most accurate US forecaster by the National Association for Business Economics. He is a member of the New York Forecasters Club, NABE, and the American Economic Association. Prior to his time in the financial services sector, Sandy was a Research Officer at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Senior Staff Economist on the President’s Council of Economic Advisors, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Economic Policy at the US Treasury, and Economist at the International Monetary Fund. Sandy has taught economics at St. Louis University, Denison University, and Muskingun College. He has published numerous peer-reviewed articles in a wide range of academic publications. He has a B.A. in economics from the University of Richmond and a M.A. and Ph.D. in economics from The Ohio State University.
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