Global| Jan 31 2008U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Surged
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Last week, initial claims for jobless insurance surged to a level which now exceeds the late 2007 highs. A 69,000 w/w jump to 375,000 followed declines during the prior several weeks. The latest level is the highest since October of [...]
Last week, initial claims for jobless insurance surged to a level which now exceeds the late 2007 highs. A 69,000 w/w jump to 375,000 followed declines during the prior several weeks. The latest level is the highest since October of 2005. The difficulties of seasonal adjusting the data during the holiday season clearly played a role in the earlier declines. A more modest rise in claims to 317,000 had been generally expected.
The four-week moving average of initial claims, a measure which smoothes out most of the series' w/w volatility, rose to 325,750 (+5.0% y/y).
A claims level below 400,000 typically has been associated with growth in nonfarm payrolls. During the last six years there has been a (negative) 78% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payroll employment.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose 47,000 after a little revised 78,000 decline during the week prior. The figure provides some indication of workers' ability to find employment but here again difficulties of seasonal adjustment this time of year are great.
The continuing claims numbers lag the initial claims figures by one week.
The insured rate of unemployment held steady w/w at 2.0%.
Credit Derivatives, Macro Risks, and Systemic Risks from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta can be found here.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 01/26/08 | 01/19/07 | Y/Y | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 375 | 306 | 18.3% | 313 | 331 | 343 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,716 | 8.1% | 2,459 | 2,662 | 2,924 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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