Global| Oct 01 2015U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Edge Higher W/W; Trend Sideways
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Today's Labor Department report on unemployment insurance applications suggests that the job market remains firm. Initial claims rose to 277,000 (-5.3% y/y) during the week ended September 26 from an unrevised 267,000 during the prior [...]
Today's Labor Department report on unemployment insurance applications suggests that the job market remains firm. Initial claims rose to 277,000 (-5.3% y/y) during the week ended September 26 from an unrevised 267,000 during the prior week. The four week moving average of claims eased to 270,750. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 270,000 initial claims in the latest week. During the last ten years there has been a 76% correlation between the level of claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payrolls.
In the week ended September 19, continuing claims for unemployment insurance eased w/w at 2.191 million (-9.5% y/y), the fewest since November 2000. The four-week moving average fell to 2.235 million and has been moving sideways since mid-July.
The insured rate of unemployment notched lower to 1.6%, equaling the lowest point since June 2000.
By state, the insured rate of unemployment continued to vary with South Dakota (0.27%), Indiana (0.73%), Virginia (0.74%), Maine (0.83%), South Carolina (0.86%) and Florida (0.87%) at the low end of the range. At the high end were Massachusetts (1.74%), Connecticut (2.03%), California (2.18%), Pennsylvania (2.18%), Alaska (2.37%) and New Jersey (2.46%). These data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 09/26/15 | 09/19/15 | 09/12/15 | Y/Y % | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 277 | 267 | 264 | -5.3 | 309 | 343 | 374 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,191 | 2,244 | -9.5 | 2,599 | 2,978 | 3,319 |
| Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.9 (8/14) |
2.0 | 2.3 | 2.6 |
Challenger Job Cut Announcements Increase The outplacement firm of Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported that job
cut announcements during September rose to 58,877, nearly doubling y/y, after an
unrevised halving to 41,186. Layoffs surged in the aerospace/defense and
computer industries and rose in the apparel, automotive, chemical, construction,
electronics, entertainment/leisure During the last ten years there has been a
68% correlation between the level of job cut announcements and the m/m change in
payroll employment. Challenger also samples firms' hiring plans. Hiring edged higher last month
to 11,778 (22.0% y/y) versus 11,637 in July. Increased job creation occurred in
the aerospace/defense, automotive, education, electronics, financial, industrial
goods, insurance, pharmaceutical, telecommunications and transportation
industries. Reduced hiring plans were realized in the apparel, chemical,
computer, construction, consumer products, food, health care, retail and
services industries. The Challenger figures are available in Haver's SURVEYS database. Challenger, Gray & Christmas Announced Job Cuts Announced Hiring Plans
by Tom Moeller October
1, 2015
Sep
Aug
Jul
Y/Y %
2014
2013
2012
58,877
41,186
105,696
93.2
483,171
509,051
523,362
492,306
11,778
11,637
-13.3
821,506
764,206
630,447
U.S. ISM Factory Index Weakens to Two-Year Low;
Prices Decline Activity in the manufacturing sector is continuing to lose steam. The
Composite Index from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) fell to 50.2
during September following an unrevised decline to 51.1 in August. It remained
the lowest level since May 2013. A smaller decline to 50.7 had been expected in
the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During the last ten years, there has been
a 73% correlation between the level of the index and the q/q change in real GDP. Each of the component series declined m/m or was unchanged. The largest
decline occurred in the production series which fell to the lowest level since
May 2013. The new orders component followed, falling to the lowest point since
August 2012. Each series still indicated positive growth but at sharply reduced
rates. At 50.5, the employment index followed with a lesser m/m decline but it
equaled a five-month low. A sharply higher 19% (NSA) of firms reduced job
counts. Just 17% raised them, down from 25% three months ago. During the last
ten years, there has been an 89% correlation between the index level and the m/m
change in factory sector payrolls. The supplier deliveries index eased m/m,
indicating slightly faster product delivery speeds. The inventories index was
unchanged m/m and reflected decumulation at the quickest rate since July of last
year. Twenty-three percent of companies were reducing inventories, up sharply
from 15% twelve months earlier. The prices reading declined to 39.0, the lowest level since February. Six
percent of respondents indicated higher prices while 30 percent reported lower
prices. During the last ten years, there has been an 85% correlation between the
index and the m/m change in the core intermediate PPI. The export order index was steady m/m, showing declines at the quickest pace
since July 2012. Imports eased further to 2013 lows and the order backlog series
also declined sharply. The figures from the Institute For Supply Management (ISM) are diffusion
indexes. A reading above 50 represents growth in factory sector activity. They
can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectations number is in
the AS1REPNA database.
by Tom Moeller October
1, 2015
ISM Mfg (SA)
Sep
Aug
Jul
Sep '14
2014
2013
2012
Composite Index
50.2
51.1
52.7
56.1
55.7
53.8
51.7
New Orders
50.1
51.7
56.5
59.4
59.0
56.9
52.9
Production
51.8
53.6
56.0
62.4
59.2
57.5
53.7
Employment
50.5
51.2
52.7
54.6
54.5
53.2
53.8
Supplier Deliveries
50.2
50.7
48.9
52.6
55.0
51.9
50.0
Inventories
48.5
48.5
49.5
51.5
50.8
49.4
48.2
Prices Paid Index (NSA)
38.0
39.0
44.0
59.5
55.6
53.8
53.2
U.S. Construction Spending Improvement Slows Versus A Strong Spring
by Tom Moeller October 1, 2015
The value of construction put-in-place increased 0.7% during August following a downwardly revised 0.4% rise in July. June's increase was revised higher to 0.6%. Three-month growth declined sharply to 6.8% (AR), down from 30.0% in the second quarter. A 0.5% August rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Building activity in the private sector increased 0.7% following a 1.1% July increase. Activity increased at a 6.1% rate during the last three months. Residential building activity rose 1.3% (15.9% y/y), the fifth consecutive month of strength. Multi-family building strengthened 4.8% (24.8% y/y), the strongest rise in six months. Single-family building increased 0.7% (14.0% y/y) after a 1.6% jump. Spending on improvements also improved 0.7% (16.3% y/y).
Public sector building continued to strengthen. It edged 0.5% higher (7.2% y/y), rising at an 8.9% annual rate during the last three months. Office construction improved 0.5% (13.1% y/y) but power construction jumped 10.0% (12.0% y/y). Water supply spending eased 0.4% (+4.3% y/y) and highway & street construction also fell 0.4% (+7.9% y/y). Educational construction eased 0.2% (+3.5% y/y) but health care jumped 1.0% (-8.0% y/y).
The construction spending figures are in Haver's USECON database and the expectations figure is contained in the AS1REPNA database.
| Construction Put in Place (SA, %) | Aug | Jul | Jun | Aug Y/Y | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 13.7 | 4.8 | 6.6 | 9.2 |
| Private | 0.7 | 1.1 | -0.4 | 16.7 | 6.0 | 11.3 | 15.9 |
| Residential | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 15.9 | 1.0 | 19.5 | 14.9 |
| Nonresidential | 0.2 | 1.6 | -1.5 | 17.7 | 11.3 | 3.6 | 16.9 |
| Public | 0.5 | -1.3 | 3.0 | 7.2 | 1.9 | -3.1 | -2.5 |
U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Continue To Improve
by Tom Moeller October 1, 2015
Strength in employment and income combined with minimal pricing power continues to generate buying at new car & truck dealerships. Total sales of light vehicles increased 2.0% during September to 18.17 million units (SAAR). Sales were 9.9% higher than one year ago and remained at the highest level since July 2005.
As gasoline prices remain roughly one-third below their 2012 high, purchases of light trucks have been particularly strong, rising 2.0% versus August to 10.26 million units. The 17.4% rise during the last twelve months left light trucks share of the total vehicle market at 56.5%, up from an August 2009 low of 42.8%. Domestic light truck sales increased 4.1% last month to 8.88 million units, up 17.0% y/y. Imported truck sales, however, declined 10.9% versus August to 1.37 million units (+19.8% y/y).
Auto sales gained 2.3% in September to 7.91 million units, up 1.6% y/y, following a 0.9% decline during August. Domestic auto sales increased 4.1% to 5.83 million (3.4% y/y) but they remained below last year's highs. Imported car sales fell 2.4% to 2.08 million and were down 3.2% y/y.
Imports share of the market for light vehicles fell m/m to 19.0%, still lower than a high of 30.7% in February 2009. Imports share of the passenger car market decreased m/m to 26.3%, remaining below the 34.8% peak during all of 2010. Imports share of the light truck market fell to 13.4%.
U.S. vehicle sales figures are published by Autodata and can be found in Haver's USECON database.
| Light Vehicle Sales (SAAR, Mil. Units) | Sep | Aug | Jul | Sep Y/Y % | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 18.17 | 17.81 | 17.55 | 9.9 | 16.52 | 15.59 | 14.49 |
| Autos | 7.91 | 7.73 | 7.80 | 1.6 | 7.92 | 7.77 | 7.42 |
| Domestic | 5.83 | 5.60 | 5.81 | 3.4 | 5.68 | 5.48 | 5.10 |
| Imported | 2.08 | 2.13 | 2.00 | -3.2 | 2.24 | 2.30 | 2.32 |
| Light Trucks | 10.26 | 10.08 | 9.75 | 17.4 | 8.60 | 7.82 | 7.08 |
| Domestic | 8.88 | 8.54 | 8.39 | 17.0 | 7.51 | 6.74 | 6.10 |
| Imported | 1.37 | 1.54 | 1.36 | 19.8 | 1.09 | 1.08 | 0.97 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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