Global| Jun 25 2015U.S. Initial Claims for Jobless Insurance Remain Below 300,000
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
A firmer labor market was behind today's report of strong personal spending and income. Initial unemployment insurance claims remained near the cycle low in the latest week. A small rise to 271,000 during the week of June 20 left the [...]
A firmer labor market was behind today's report of strong personal spending and income. Initial unemployment insurance claims remained near the cycle low in the latest week. A small rise to 271,000 during the week of June 20 left the four week moving average down for a second period to 273,750, up just slightly from the dead low in May. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 272,000 initial claims in the latest week. During the last ten years, there has been a 76% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payrolls.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance ticked up to 2.247 million (-12.8% y/y) in the latest week from 2.225 million. The four-week moving average of 2.237 million was near the lowest level since November 2000.
The insured rate of unemployment held for a second week at 1.7%, just above the cycle low.
By state, the insured rate of unemployment continued to vary greatly with New Hampshire (0.76%), Florida (0.80%), Virginia (0.82%), Georgia (1.02%), Tennessee (1.03%) and Ohio (1.16%) at the low end of the range. At the high end were Massachusetts (1.94%), Pennsylvania (1.94%), California (2.24%), Connecticut (2.25%), New Jersey (2.40%) and Alaska (2.96%). These data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 06/20/15 | 06/13/15 | 06/06/15 | Y/Y % | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 271 | 268 | 279 | -13.4 | 309 | 343 | 374 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,247 | 2,225 | -12.8 | 2,599 | 2,978 | 3,319 |
| Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.7 | 1.7 | 2.0 (6/14) |
2.0 | 2.3 | 2.6 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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