Global| Jul 15 2015U.S. Industrial Production Shows Limited Improvement
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Overall industrial output increased 0.3% during June (1.5% y/y) following an unrevised 0.2% decline. A 0.2% rise in production had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Manufacturing sector production was unchanged [...]
Overall industrial output increased 0.3% during June (1.5% y/y) following an unrevised 0.2% decline. A 0.2% rise in production had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Manufacturing sector production was unchanged (+1.8% y/y) for the second consecutive month. May's figure was revised from -0.2%. Mining output rebounded 1.0% (-0.8% y/y), the first increase since December. Utility output improved 1.5% (4.3% y/y) after a 1.3% rise.
Within the factory sector, automotive products production fell 3.8% (+5.3% y/y) after three months of increase. Appliance, furniture & carpeting output edged up 0.9% (3.0% y/y) following no change during May. Business equipment production increased 0.4% (3.0% y/y) following a 0.6% rise. Transit equipment output fell 0.7% (+2.0% y/y) after a 1.1% jump. In the nondurables consumer goods sector, clothing output remained unchanged (2.5% y/y) after a 0.8% decline. Chemical product manufacturing improved 0.2% (2.8% y/y) after two months of decline.
The special aggregate series indicated that production in high technology industries increased 0.8% but still was down 0.5% y/y. It was the first monthly increase since November. A 1.4% rise (-1.0% y/y) in semiconductor output led the grouping's production higher. Communications equipment production improved 0.4% both m/m and y/y, but computer & office equipment output declined 2.6% (+1.8% y/y). Factory sector production excluding the high-tech sector remained unchanged (+1.9% y/y) following two months of 0.1% uptick. Manufacturing production excluding both high-tech and autos improved 0.2% (1.7% y/y) following a 0.1% slip.
The capacity utilization rate rose to 78.4% but remained below the recovery high of 79.8% reached in November. Mining sector utilization edged up m/m to 84.1% but remained down from its 90.5% high twelve months ago. In the factory sector, the capacity utilization rate eased to 77.2%, down from 78.1% in November. Total industry capacity rose 2.6% y/y while factory sector capacity increased 1.9% y/y.
Industrial production and capacity data are included in Haver's USECON database, with additional detail in the IP database. The expectations figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Industrial Production (SA, % Change) | Jun | May | Apr | Jun Y/Y | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Output | 0.3 | -0.2 | -0.5 | 1.5 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 3.8 |
| Manufacturing | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 1.8 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 4.1 |
| Consumer Goods | 0.0 | 0.1 | -1.1 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 1.7 |
| Business Equipment | 0.4 | 0.6 | -0.1 | 3.0 | 5.2 | 3.6 | 7.5 |
| Construction Supplies | -0.1 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 1.7 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.6 |
| Materials | 0.5 | -0.6 | -0.3 | 1.6 | 5.1 | 3.2 | 4.5 |
| Utilities | 1.5 | 1.2 | -5.1 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 2.1 | -2.1 |
| Capacity Utilization (%) | 78.4 | 78.2 | 78.5 | 79.2 | 79.1 | 78.0 | 77.3 |
| Manufacturing | 77.2 | 77.3 | 77.3 | 77.3 | 77.2 | 76.1 | 75.5 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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